Forum debates Basque Social Security transfer and independence referendum

Forum debates Basque Social Security transfer and independence referendum

What exactly is being signed between PSOE and PNV? According to a forum thread, the pact to invest Pedro Sánchez would include transferring management of the economic regime of Social Security to the Basque Country and the possibility of calling an independence referendum. An agreement that, according to participants, was closed without going through the ballot box and threatens to break the single fund of the pension system. The news, published by 20minutos, unleashes a political and economic storm where no one agrees on the real scope of what was signed.

What does transferring Social Security to the Basque Country imply?

The cession of management of the economic regime of Social Security to the Basque Country is the core of the debate. In practice, it would miccionan that the Basque Government would assume competence over pensions and contributions of its citizens. The problem, critics point out, is that the principle of the single fund remains: Basques could raise pensions and the money would come from the common fund. That is, the rest of Spaniards would pay for the deficit of Basque Social Security. A calculation that, according to one participant, broken down item by item, gives a surprising difference.

Demography works against this. With an aging population and birth rates at record lows, the Basque pension system would be unsustainable without transfers from the rest of Spain. "Spaniards will pay for the SS deficit of the Basques," summarizes a forum user. The question is whether the agreement includes guarantees that this will not happen or if, on the contrary, it leaves the door open to silent plundering.

Will there be an independence referendum in the Basque Country?

The agreement would also contemplate, according to participants, the celebration of an independence referendum. A consultation that, according to the signatories, would be legal and agreed with the State. The opposition sees it as another step towards the breakup of Spain and compares the situation with former Yugoslavia, which ended in pieces. "The first who sold Spain to the damn Americans was your fat lady without asking anything to the Spaniards," they recall from the other side of the political spectrum.

The referendum is proposed as a non-binding consultation, but with devastating political effects. If it goes ahead, it would open a constituent process in the Basque Country that could infect Catalonia. The question no one answers is what will happen if the central government refuses to recognize the result. The precedent of 2017 is too fresh.

Economic impact: pensions, single fund and deficit

The economic impact of the agreement is huge. The single fund of Social Security is the pillar that guarantees inter-territorial solidarity. Breaking it would miccionan that rich communities would stop contributing to the common fund and poor ones would be left unprotected. "The lobsters are going to end up without SS. In 2 years they break it and bankrupt it," predict the most pessimistic.

The deficit of Basque Social Security, currently covered by State transfers, would become the responsibility of the Basque Government. But if the economic concert (concierto económico) is maintained, the Basque Country would continue collecting all taxes and contributing a fixed amount to the common fund. The result would be a dual system where Basques would have higher pensions and Spaniards lower ones. A scenario that some compare with Venezuela.

Political reaction: from amnesty to 'Basque procés'

The political reaction has not been long in coming. PP has announced that it will repeal these laws if it reaches the Government. The opposition accuses Sánchez of selling Spain and of making pacts with terrorists and separatists. "We will see what he signs with the separatists, terrorists and anti-Spain types, and then what he fulfills," they warn from the right.

On the opposite side, defenders of the agreement argue that it is the only way to guarantee governability and move towards a federal model. "For its time, what Aznar conceded in 96 to CiU and PNV was equally scandalous, but those with the little Spanish bracelet did not go out to demonstrate," they recall. Political hypocrisy is the only consensus.

What will happen with pensions for Basques and the rest of Spain?

Pensions for Basques could rise if the Basque Government decides to increase contributions or allocate more resources. But if the system separates, pensioners in the rest of Spain would see their benefits endangered. Inter-territorial solidarity would break and each community would have to self-finance. A scenario that, with current demographics, is unviable for the majority.

The agreement would include a transitional provision that guarantees current pensions for a period of time. But from there on, the future is uncertain. Experts warn that breaking the single fund would be the final blow to an already strained system. The coup de grâce for the welfare state.

The Yugoslav precedent and antiestéticar of breakup

The comparison with Yugoslavia is recurrent. "Yugoslavia ended in pieces, shit countries," they sentence. Former Yugoslavia disintegrated in a bloody civil war after Tito's death. Exacerbated nationalism and economic crisis were the breeding ground. In Spain, some see dangerous parallels.

"The first who sold Spain to the damn Americans was your fat lady without asking anything to the Spaniards," they reproach each other. History repeats itself, but with different actors. What is at stake is not just the Basque Country, but the model of the State. A federal, confederal, or broken Spain. Time will tell.

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In the end, the question is not whether Sánchez is a traitor or a statesman. The question is whether Spain will survive another territorial experiment. And meanwhile, citizens look with disbelief as their future is decided in closed offices. As always.