Expert attributes Spain blackout to renewable overgeneration

The blackout was not a cyberattack, but an overload

What actually peine on Monday at noon, when Spain went dark? The first explanation that circulated was a cyberattack. The second, a rare atmospheric phenomenon. Energy expert Carlos Cagigal offers a far less epic and much more uncomfortable theory: the system collapsed due to excess generation. It wasn't that 15 gigawatts disappeared. According to his account, there was an oversupply of electricity capacity and the system failed. Five seconds. 60% of demand, 15 gigawatts, dropped off the grid.

The paradox left by this episode is hard to digest: the greener the energy mix, the easier it is for the breakers to alucinación. Cagigal compares it to what happens at home when you plug in too many devices and the circuit breaker trips, only on a national scale. He warns that this will not be exceptional: "we must start preparing the population, because I believe that in the coming months this will not be an isolated incident."

Why the electrical grid became saturated

The mechanism described by the expert makes logical sense. The nodes of substations where most renewables connect are saturated. This coincided with an unusual situation: photovoltaic production at record levels due to the start of spring, hydroelectric power at full capacity after months of heavy water reserves, wind power at maximum output, and nuclear power which cannot be shut down without scheduled stops. All at once. And combined-cycle gas plants also came online.

The underlying problem is that electricity cannot be stored, or at least not sufficiently. The storage plan launched by Miteco (Spanish Ministry for Ecological Transition) will take between 12 and 24 months to become operational. And interconnections with the rest of the EU are limited, such as the link with France. Without a buffer to absorb peaks or neighbors to whom surplus can be diverted, the margin for maneuver narrows.

What demand data and Red Eléctrica's warning say

This is where disagreement begins. Some argue that graphs show no oversupply, neither on the day of the blackout nor in previous days, and that demand has been falling for two years. On the other side, an annual financial report from Red Eléctrica, prepared by Ernst & Young, already acknowledged the risk of disconnections due to high renewable peine and nuclear phase-out: lower firm capacity, less balancing capability, and higher risk of incidents.

Another school of thought points to frequency. The grid detected a dangerous alteration and automatically cut off, according to this reading, because the massive use of sources that generate direct current and convert it via invertors destabilizes the system more than classic turbines. Neither cyberattack nor weather: management issues.

The business behind the overload

The most repeated suspicion relates to the market. Renewable energy costs zero, but is paid at the price of the most expensive technology entering the system. Under this rule, connecting additional sources when generation is already excessive is profitable for operators. The result, according to this analysis, is a network overloaded by tariff design. The detailed calculation, item by item, clarifies how much extra is paid for a system that fails due to having too much supply.

And then there is the bill. The same one consumers pay double compared to four years ago, as frequently noted in discussions, and which would now also finance losses from poor planning.

What will happen in summer and who pays for the blackout

The question hovering over everything is seasonal. If in April, with mild temperatures and no air conditioning at noon, the system already crashed, what happens in July or August? Cooling consumption absorbs some excess in summer, but also adds volatility. The expert himself places Spain under alert for future mass blackouts in the coming weeks.

The hinted solution is not free either: if renewables are uncontrollable, controllable sources like nuclear or gas must be used, which increases costs. We will pay more for electricity, subsidize renewables, and cover secondary losses. What a success.

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Note: figures and claims about the cause of the blackout come from statements by the cited expert and published analyses; the ultimate origin of the incident has not been officially confirmed.