Excess Mortality Rises in Europe, Spain Among Hardest Hit

Europe's excess mortality reaches 2.9%, putting Spain in the spotlight

A 2.9% figure that is not statistical noise

In early 2025, mortality indicators issued another warning that European governments prefer to digest slowly. Excess mortality across the European Union stood at 2.9% in the second quarter, a metric measuring deaths above the expected historical average. Spain appears among the most affected countries. This is not an anecdotal spike: it is the second warning in months, as data from the beginning of the year already pointed in the same direction.

The indicator has a catch, worth noting: it compares against averages from previous years, so an aging society always tends to show positive values. But when excess mortality concentrates in specific countries rather than others, demographics alone no longer explain everything.

Cancer remains the leading cause of death in Spain, accounting for 26.6% of fatalities. The striking aspect is not the percentage itself, but what it hides: a study published in BMJ Oncology estimates that cancer cases in people under 50 increased by 79% between 1990 and 2019. These are different age groups. A different pace. And a different conversation.

Cancer in under-50s: the rise causing concern

The 79% increase is not a rounding error. It occurs globally, but explanations vary. Ultra-processed foods, sugar, sedentary lifestyles, alcohol, and tobacco are cited as usual suspects. Some add microplastics to the list, despite weaker statistical support, though the logic cannot be dismissed outright.

The uncomfortable question is whether this growth accelerated after 2020. Some analyses suggest studying trends by period, comparing 2000-2020 against 2020-2025, to see if there is an inflection point. That comparison lacks consistent reliability, causing a deadlock.

Three explanations, two camps, and a demographic backdrop

The debate on causes has fragmented. The academic mainstream insists on aging: Spain, along with Japan, has one of the oldest age structures in the world, driving up mortality rates through simple arithmetic. Diet is added to the mix: consumption of processed food has risen for decades, with effects on diabetes and stroke appearing now, with a lag.

The more combative camp focuses on mass vaccination campaigns. They note that Spain reached 92.9% vaccinated compared to the European average of 84.8%, suggesting a lack of serious studies on medium-term effects. It is a suspicion, not evidence. Yet cross-country comparisons fuel the theory: Portugal, Spain, and Malta, among the most vaccinated, record excess mortality, while Bulgaria and Latvia, with much lower rates, do not.

History repeats itself

Those defending the vaccine hypothesis recall that the very data used to discredit skeptics—cross-country comparisons based on inoculation rates—are now being turned against them. Correlation does not imply causation, but it is unsettling.

The truth is there is no official study closing the question. And it must be stated plainly: there won't be one as long as the problem remains statistically manageable. European public health has entered a phase where excess mortality is normalized, and normalizing an excess is an elegant way to stop counting it.

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