EU and cutting Russia's energy supply: war strategy or mirage?

EU support for Ukraine should include cutting Russia off from gas and electricity. That is the thesis gaining ground in some quarters, but economic analysis reveals other layers.

The proposal to completely cut off Russia's energy supply as punishment for the invasion of Ukraine is not new, but it has taken on a more radical tone in recent debates. The idea: exploit Russia's dependence on gas and oil exports to strangle its economy and military capacity. The reality, however, is more complex.

Those who defend this position argue that Russia has repeatedly threatened to destroy the EU, and that any measure is therefore legitimate. They also point out that Russia and Venezuela are global energy competitors, and that Russia's disappearance as a producer would benefit Europe in the long run. On the opposite side, some argue that Russia is a European country and not the real enemy; they point to the demographic challenge as the true issue: it is estimated that the European population in Western Europe will be only 40% by 2050, and that this is not due to Russian bombing.

There is enormous controversy over Europe's real capacity to do without Russian gas. While some believe that with Ukraine's support the Russian electricity and gas distribution network can be destroyed, others warn of the economic consequences for the EU itself. What is clear is that the debate over energy warfare is far from settled.

In the short term, a total energy embargo seems unrealistic given Europe's dependence, but political pressure for tougher measures keeps growing. The outcome will depend on the EU's ability to maintain unity and on how the conflict evolves on the ground.