Energy destruction in western Russia and Siberian separatism

Ukrainian strikes west of the Urals target the heart of the 'Siberian question'

Bombing of Russian energy infrastructure is concentrated west of the Urals, leaving the vast expanse of Siberia virtually untouched. A strategic reading suggests this is not just logistics – the natural barrier and the desire not to irritate China – but a deliberate manoeuvre to stoke separatism in a region that, according to some analyses, has never felt fully Russian.

The Siberian factor in the war of attrition

Siberia, a multinational territory whose population includes Mongols, Yakuts, Tuvans, Ukrainians, Kazakhs and Russians, harbours an identity of its own: many call themselves “Siberians” above their ethnic origin. Selective strikes may aim to make Siberians, feeling that the war only affects European Russia, distance themselves from Moscow's war effort. It points to a process similar to the independence of the American colonies, where metropolitan distance and fiscal pressure led to a break.

Counterarguments: Siberian loyalty to Russia

However, the idea of strong separatist sentiment clashes with the experience of those who have lived in the region. Siberian Russians are said to regard themselves as the most authentic Russia, the most ethnically pure, and local minorities are described as small and peaceful. There is also no evidence that the Ukrainian diaspora in Siberia identifies with the current Ukrainian state, and the millions of Russians of Ukrainian descent in European Russia – up to 9 million – remain loyal to Moscow.

A prediction with reservations

If the war drags on and Moscow demands more resources from Siberia, the analogy with other empires that collapsed through their peripheries – from the USSR to the colonial empires – gains strength. But Siberian identity as a basis for real independence remains an open question. For now, energy destruction in the west is a fact; the Siberian divorce is an unconfirmed hypothesis.