Electric cars: €20 billion less in imported oil
Electric cars have saved €20 billion in imported crude since the Strait of Hormuz crisis began, but Spain has yet to see that drop and gas backup for the power mix remains on the table
English · Original discussion in Spanish · Published
Electric cars have already cut €20 billion in imported crude
The headline is a neat one: electric vehicles would have saved €20 billion for oil-importing countries since the Strait of Hormuz crisis began. The figure, circulated from a piece in El País, comes wrapped in that tone of sarracena victory so beloved in Brussels. The problem starts when you ask where the electricity that powers those cars comes from.
Where does the electricity that charges an electric car come from?
The first objection is textbook: much of that electricity is generated by burning gas in combined-cycle plants, and renewables need thermal backup to keep the grid's frequency stable. In other words, the crude savings may be offset by more imported gas. The counterargument comes with data: in January, the month of lowest solar output, combined cycle accounted for just 16% of Spain's power mix. Coal, it is added, is no longer used in Spain.
The clash of figures does not resolve itself. Some point out that gas backup does not disappear no matter how hard the sun shines in June, while others reply that the percentage is low enough for the balance to still favor the electric car. Nobody disputes the 16%. What they dispute is what it means.
Why Spain is not seeing the savings in fuel consumption
Here comes the most uncomfortable nuance for the triumphalist narrative. When asked about it, the answer points out that Spain has not recorded a reduction in its overall fuel consumption or an equivalent net saving within that figure. The dynamism of transport and the market would have kept fossil fuel demand at high levels.
The explanation given is straight out of the transition handbook: with the share of electric car sales still low, the aggregate effect is not visible. The drop in consumption would come once sales sustainably exceed 20%. In other European countries, with higher shares, it would already be noticeable. It is a reasonable promise and, for now, just a promise.
The material bill of the electric car
Against the accounting savings stands the shopping list. A widely shared breakdown quantifies what it takes to build a battery: 12 tons of stone for lithium, 5 of cobalt minerals, 3 for nickel and 12 of copper ore, plus moving 250 tons of earth to obtain 12 kilos of lithium, 30 pounds of nickel, 22 kilos of manganese, 15 pounds of cobalt and 100 kilos of copper. The tally does not include the rest of the vehicle.
The figure serves two opposite purposes. For some, it shows that the electric car shifts dependence from the pump to the mine. For others, it is the startup cost of a technology that pays off over the years. The debate is almost always settled wrongly.
The Santander fire and the blackout as arguments
The conversation drifts toward risk. An incident in Santander is mentioned in which two electric vehicles allegedly left an apartment block uninhabitable, with structural damage and the need for shoring. It is the kind of case used as a weapon, though an isolated incident proves nothing about an entire fleet.
The April 25, 2025 blackout is also invoked as a reminder that the grid is not infinite, with jokes that the energy savings would end up resembling those of certain countries without a stable supply. The jab is easy. The underlying question — how much grid is needed to electrify the car fleet — goes unanswered.
Who defends what
The trenches are clear. One camp argues that opposing electric cars and renewables in Europe is a miscalculation, and that the crude savings are real even if Spain is slow to see them. Another camp replies that the power mix is not as green as advertised and that the material and grid costs are swept under the rug. In between sits a pragmatic position: electric works for cheap daily use, and for everything else, petrol or diesel.
The €20 billion figure will keep being cited. What is unclear is how much of that saving reaches the Spanish driver's pocket, and when. With current sales shares, the most honest answer is: not yet.
Key data
The headline is a neat one: electric vehicles would have saved €20 billion for oil-importing countries since the Strait of Hormuz crisis began. The figure, circulated from a piece in El País, comes wrapped in that tone of sarracena victory so beloved in Brussels. The problem starts when you ask where the electricity that powers those cars comes from.
Where does the electricity that charges an electric car come from?
The first objection is textbook: much of that electricity is generated by burning gas in combined-cycle plants, and renewables need thermal backup to keep the grid's frequency stable. In other words, the crude savings may be offset by more imported gas. The counterargument comes with data: in January, the month of lowest solar output, combined cycle accounted for just 16% of Spain's power mix. Coal, it is added, is no longer used in Spain.
The clash of figures does not resolve itself. Some point out that gas backup does not disappear no matter how hard the sun shines in June, while others reply that the percentage is low enough for the balance to still favor the electric car. Nobody disputes the 16%. What they dispute is what it means.
Why Spain is not seeing the savings in fuel consumption
Here comes the most uncomfortable nuance for the triumphalist narrative. When asked about it, the answer points out that Spain has not recorded a reduction in its overall fuel consumption or an equivalent net saving within that figure. The dynamism of transport and the market would have kept fossil fuel demand at high levels.
The explanation given is straight out of the transition handbook: with the share of electric car sales still low, the aggregate effect is not visible. The drop in consumption would come once sales sustainably exceed 20%. In other European countries, with higher shares, it would already be noticeable. It is a reasonable promise and, for now, just a promise.
The material bill of the electric car
Against the accounting savings stands the shopping list. A widely shared breakdown quantifies what it takes to build a battery: 12 tons of stone for lithium, 5 of cobalt minerals, 3 for nickel and 12 of copper ore, plus moving 250 tons of earth to obtain 12 kilos of lithium, 30 pounds of nickel, 22 kilos of manganese, 15 pounds of cobalt and 100 kilos of copper. The tally does not include the rest of the vehicle.
The figure serves two opposite purposes. For some, it shows that the electric car shifts dependence from the pump to the mine. For others, it is the startup cost of a technology that pays off over the years. The debate is almost always settled wrongly.
The Santander fire and the blackout as arguments
The conversation drifts toward risk. An incident in Santander is mentioned in which two electric vehicles allegedly left an apartment block uninhabitable, with structural damage and the need for shoring. It is the kind of case used as a weapon, though an isolated incident proves nothing about an entire fleet.
The April 25, 2025 blackout is also invoked as a reminder that the grid is not infinite, with jokes that the energy savings would end up resembling those of certain countries without a stable supply. The jab is easy. The underlying question — how much grid is needed to electrify the car fleet — goes unanswered.
Who defends what
The trenches are clear. One camp argues that opposing electric cars and renewables in Europe is a miscalculation, and that the crude savings are real even if Spain is slow to see them. Another camp replies that the power mix is not as green as advertised and that the material and grid costs are swept under the rug. In between sits a pragmatic position: electric works for cheap daily use, and for everything else, petrol or diesel.
The €20 billion figure will keep being cited. What is unclear is how much of that saving reaches the Spanish driver's pocket, and when. With current sales shares, the most honest answer is: not yet.
Key data
- Combined cycle in January: 16% of Spain's power mix.
- Sales threshold cited to notice the drop in consumption: 20%.
- Battery: 12 tons of stone for lithium, 5 of cobalt, 3 of nickel, 12 of copper.
- The April 25, 2025 blackout as a reference for grid fragility.
Summary of a discussion on Burbuja.info - Foro de economía, actualidad y política., translated from Spanish and reviewed before publication. Read the full discussion (25 replies).
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