El Confidencial poll sinks Feijóo and sets off alarm bells in Spain's PP

The poll that sinks Feijóo and puts the PP on alert

A poll by IMOP Insights published in El Confidencial has set off every alarm in Spain's PP: Alberto Núñez Feijóo has suffered a "very considerable" drop in just two weeks, according to the framing that opens the discussion. The paradox is this: with a government battered by scandals such as Ávalos, Koldo, Tito Berni, Cerdán or Leire, and with the Ceuta conflict and housing in the headlines, the conservative candidate is failing to capitalise on that wear and tear. The PP's voting intention remains, on average across polls, below its 2023 result, as one participant argues.

The figure that hurts most is not the drop. It is the context. PSOE and PP are just one or two points apart, Vox is approaching 21% and Sumar remains stuck between 6% and 7%, according to the numbers being discussed. Sixty per cent of Spaniards say they want a change of government, yet the two blocs remain perfectly defined. The left is reducing indecision and mobilising; the PP, by contrast, cannot find its spark.

Why Feijóo does not rise even as the government wears down

The most repeated explanation has to do with the candidate himself. Feijóo has spent eight years staying quiet, and when he speaks, his numbers fall, as stated in the debate. His sequence of campaign statements — stripping sick pay from workers, admitting the pension system is unsustainable, making the minimum wage rise conditional on employers' approval — reads like a campaign manual for his opponents. Some sum it up bluntly: "As soon as he speaks, voting intention drops".

The underlying problem is one of positioning. The PP oscillates between distancing itself from the centre and attacking Sánchez-style politics without defining what it offers instead. The hard-line base demands gesture and rupture; the moderate voter wants competence and calm. Feijóo has not resolved that tension, and the result is a candidate who neither excites his own supporters nor convinces anyone else.

The pensions warning and the cost of refusing to commit

The pension system appears in the conversation as the elephant nobody wants to look at. One participant claims that 75% of PP voters will be pensioners, and the candidate has let slip that the system is unsustainable. In the middle of a campaign, that remark carries an obvious electoral price. The dilemma being posed is stark: some will take the knife to pensions, others will raise taxes, but the status quo cannot hold.

The most cynical reading is that Feijóo may not even want to win. That his goal is to avoid inheriting the mess left by the government and, in the process, let Vox take the wear and tear. It is a hypothesis circulating without proof, but it explains the candidate's passivity better than any communications manual.

The Vox factor and the prospect of a repeat election

Vox remains strong, close to 21%, and that complicates any arithmetic. The parliamentary maths is what it is: repeating the polling error of 2023 would not be enough to leave PP and Vox short of the 176 seats, according to the analysis being shared. The scenario of deadlock hangs over the campaign.

Some argue the PP should stay in opposition and facilitate a no-confidence motion once the government becomes untenable. Others believe refusing to deal with Vox and forcing a second election is the surprise Feijóo is preparing. Neither is confirmed, but both portray a party that cannot quite believe in its own victory.

El Confidencial, the mood and the rest of the poll

The poll does not only measure voting intention. It also captures perceptions of climate change: 80% of women describe themselves as concerned, compared with 66% of men; concern reaches 80% among those over 65 and 70% among the young. By party, 90% of PSOE and Sumar voters express concern, versus 54% of PP voters and 36% of Vox voters.

On the outlet's credibility, opinion splits. Some dismiss it as close to the PSOE, "a kind of El País 2.0". Others point out it was the outlet that exclusively published the ICIJ's major international investigative reports. The debate over who cooks the polls is as old as the trade itself.

The name being floated as a replacement

Within the PP one name keeps coming up as an alternative: Xavier Albiol. He is described as an approachable, direct, straight-talking man, and is credited with much of the party's resilience in Catalonia. The objection is one of scale: a mayor is not the same as a prime minister. Ayuso, by contrast, generates more division: she is seen as more of a fighter, but also as a polarising risk.

With all this, the question is not whether Feijóo is falling, but how far he can fall before 29-N and whether anyone at PP headquarters has a plan B other than waiting. The answer, as of today, has not been written.