Ecuador: the narco state nobody wants to see
3,094 homicides in four months and crime up 700%: Ecuador has become the world's biggest cocaine exporter, and nobody is explaining why.
English · Original discussion in Spanish · Published
Ecuador: the traficante state nobody wants to see
In the first four months of 2025, Ecuador recorded 3,094 intentional homicides, 58% more than in the same period of 2024. Anyone who traveled overland from Quito to Guayaquil in 2011 describes a peaceful country; today's figures tell a very different story: the homicide rate has soared and projections point to more than 10,000 violent deaths in the year, the highest figure in the country's history.
The numbers behind the chaos
The figures are stark. Under Daniel Noboa's presidency, crime is said to have risen by 700%, according to the most widely cited analyses. Between January and April 2025 alone, 3,094 homicides were recorded, a 58% increase over the previous year. The state's capacity to respond is, at best, limited: it is estimated that less than 7% of the cocaine leaving Ecuador is seized, and of that percentage, a portion simply disappears.
The route is well known: cocaine arrives from Colombia and is exported to the United States, Europe and Asia in ships loaded with bananas. Noboa himself owns a banana company, which has fueled suspicions about his involvement, although there is no firm conviction. Some present him as the "Ecuadorian Bukele" because of his hard-line rhetoric; the results, for now, point in the other direction.
The uncomfortable debate
The contrast with Venezuela is uncomfortable for the official narrative. While the Caribbean country suffers sanctions and low commercial air and sea traffic, Ecuador multiplies that activity twentyfold, making it the perfect partner for drug trafficking. It is argued that traficante infiltration of the Ecuadorian state is total, and that anyone who dares to denounce it dies. It is also pointed out that drug money is laundered through the major financial centers of London, a component that the "war on drugs" avoids mentioning.
The most unsettling fact is impunity. With less than 7% seized and unexplained disappearances within that percentage, the business runs with near-total safety. The question is not why Ecuador is a traficante state, but why nobody wants to say so.
In the first four months of 2025, Ecuador recorded 3,094 intentional homicides, 58% more than in the same period of 2024. Anyone who traveled overland from Quito to Guayaquil in 2011 describes a peaceful country; today's figures tell a very different story: the homicide rate has soared and projections point to more than 10,000 violent deaths in the year, the highest figure in the country's history.
The numbers behind the chaos
The figures are stark. Under Daniel Noboa's presidency, crime is said to have risen by 700%, according to the most widely cited analyses. Between January and April 2025 alone, 3,094 homicides were recorded, a 58% increase over the previous year. The state's capacity to respond is, at best, limited: it is estimated that less than 7% of the cocaine leaving Ecuador is seized, and of that percentage, a portion simply disappears.
The route is well known: cocaine arrives from Colombia and is exported to the United States, Europe and Asia in ships loaded with bananas. Noboa himself owns a banana company, which has fueled suspicions about his involvement, although there is no firm conviction. Some present him as the "Ecuadorian Bukele" because of his hard-line rhetoric; the results, for now, point in the other direction.
The uncomfortable debate
The contrast with Venezuela is uncomfortable for the official narrative. While the Caribbean country suffers sanctions and low commercial air and sea traffic, Ecuador multiplies that activity twentyfold, making it the perfect partner for drug trafficking. It is argued that traficante infiltration of the Ecuadorian state is total, and that anyone who dares to denounce it dies. It is also pointed out that drug money is laundered through the major financial centers of London, a component that the "war on drugs" avoids mentioning.
The most unsettling fact is impunity. With less than 7% seized and unexplained disappearances within that percentage, the business runs with near-total safety. The question is not why Ecuador is a traficante state, but why nobody wants to say so.
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Summary of a discussion on Burbuja.info - Foro de economía, actualidad y política., translated from Spanish and reviewed before publication. Read the full discussion (24 replies).
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