Dollar Plummets Against Bitcoin, Falling Below 3,000 Satoshis

Dollar Falls to 0.000024 BTC: Less Than 3,000 Satoshis Per Unit

On January 4th, 2021, the US dollar was trading below 0.000036 BTC. According to a post in the thread, the DXY index—which measures the dollar's strength against a basket of currencies—fell below the 90 level. In the same thread, the decline accelerated to 0.000024 BTC, which is less than 3,000 satoshis per unit. Anyone looking solely at EUR/USD, which was stable at 1.22, would not have seen any collapse. The difference lies in the unit of measurement: the plunge is measured in bitcoins, not euros.

Why Is It Said the Dollar is Collapsing?

Because the comparison is made exclusively against Bitcoin. Against the euro, pound, or yen, the movement is of a different magnitude, and therein lies the key: the narrative of the dollar's collapse is constructed using a single pair. There was, however, an uncomfortable piece of data that day: against the Chinese yuan, the US currency fell by more than 1%, the largest first-day-of-trading decline in over three decades, according to investor Peter Schiff. A rare episode, not a collapse.

What Peine on January 4th with Bitcoin at $34,500

On that day, Bitcoin hit a high of $34,500 and then violently reversed course: the BTC/USD pair even dropped by 20% intraday to $25,600. The detail that breaks the narrative is that this did not happen with the pair measured in USDT. Same crypto, different pair, different price. Some attribute this to a liquidity issue on a specific exchange rather than a global dollar revaluation, although the thread acknowledges the cause is unknown.

The Thesis of Bitcoin as a Dollar Substitute

Regazo summarized the underlying argument: those who believe Bitcoin will skyrocket must also believe that the entire fiat system, including the geopolitical hegemony of the United States, will eventually collapse. It's a binary bet with no middle ground. On the technical side, it's argued that Bitcoin is backed by energy and consensus, while gold's value is sustained merely by 5,000 years of habit. Conversely, it's argued that an asset not usable for buying a coffee isn't money, no matter how much it's promised to be fixed with second-layer solutions like the Lightning Network.

Does It Make Sense to Buy Dollars with Euros at 1.22?

It depends on how long one is willing to wait. Returning to parity 1:1 requires a 22% move in the pair, and if the play drags on for a decade, the annualized return drops to 3% or 4%. This is the calculation a forum user made; with this arithmetic, buying greenbacks as a value bet is less of a masterstroke and more of a poorly compensated exercise in patience.

Grandma's 200 Euros and Institutional Distribution

Some attribute the surge to the generation that peine Christmas envelopes on December 25th and put their 200 euros into Bitcoin, driving up the price with thousands of small purchases and little real volume. Others see the usual pattern: accumulation and distribution by the big players—Goldman, Morgan Stanley, JP Morgan, Blackrock, Vanguard—who first inflate the asset and then sell. Under this interpretation, one participant argued that those buying now are making a mistake and predicted a return to $15,000 before the end of the year.

With the dollar at 0.000024 BTC, the interesting question isn't whether fiat will die, but how much of that drop represents real dollar weakness versus Bitcoin euphoria. In the thread, no one separates the two.