The Economist and the 4 cryptocurrencies on its cover

The Economist’s four cryptos: gold, silver and two promises

The Economist’s cover doesn’t predict the future: it selects it. And this time it selected four cryptocurrencies for 2022 —Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin and Cardano— with a visual hierarchy many read as a verdict. Two were obvious to anyone with even a little mileage in the sector. The other two, especially one, have peine a debate that ranges from chart analysis to etymological archaeology.

The first thing that stands out isn’t who but where. The logos are arranged around a circle and their position, many readings argue, is no accident: Bitcoin and Ethereum on one side, Litecoin and Cardano on the other. In the crypto imagination, that symmetry has a name.

What the cover shows and where each logo sits

The most repeated description places Ethereum’s logo next to a windmill and Cardano’s next to the other one. Bitcoin and Litecoin appear more centered, with the hands and blades spread across both hemispheres. Some can make out the logos at two and eight o’clock; others admit that, at first glance, the rest were meaningless smudges until someone enlarged them.

From there comes a geometric reading beloved in crypto rumor mills: the left axis would be the winners and the right the losers. In Ethereum’s sector, an upward chart can be seen; in Cardano’s, a falling bomb. Next to Bitcoin, the syringes point up; next to Litecoin, down. Whether that’s a message or a set with too much imagination layered on top is exactly what no one can settle.

Another piece fits that hypothesis. The cover looks symmetrical, and some suspect that folding it in half would reveal more information. No one has checked.

Litecoin, the surprise rising 16%

Here’s the name that throws you. Litecoin isn’t the crypto you expect to see highlighted in 2022, and yet, according to one participant, it was the fourth-best performer among the top 100, up more than 16%. Not bad for an old rocker.

The explanation circulating is textbook. Litecoin acts as an oscillator against Bitcoin: it depreciates in bear markets and multiplies tenfold during euphoric phases. If the market was entering the last euphoric phase of the cycle, the prophecy fulfills itself. Some also recall that Litecoin’s role was written back in 2012: Bitcoin is gold and Litecoin is silver, a store of value versus everyday money. That, of course, is only argued by those who have been in this since then and never got out.

Against it is the obvious: for much of the sector, Litecoin is Bitcoin’s little brother and shouldn’t stand out either way.

Cardano, the promise that went up in smoke

The other unexpected name is Cardano. The comparison that has worked best is that of younger siblings: Cardano is to Ethereum what Litecoin is to Bitcoin. A blockchain that promised to improve on the previous one by increasing scalability and that has fallen behind, used mainly for its low fees, while everyone wants to be on the older brother.

Hence the most repeated word is hype. The argument has its logic: if the cover means anything, it says Cardano and Litecoin are the satellites accompanying the two big ones, not their replacements.

Some add missing names. IOTA is missed in the center, and VeChain appears, which one participant presents as one of the two cryptocurrencies approved by the Chinese government. There is also speculation about Ripple and the SWIFT system because of the blades spread across the hemispheres. And, of course, the dog is missing: no one sees a trace of Shiba Inu on the cover.

From Alice’s clock to the “Upside down” message

If the cover holds a message, part of the analysis argues it must be read alongside the previous ones. Two references recur. One is the clock face that marks time, related to the cover about decentralized finance. Another is the Upside down message, that taste for the world turned upside down that already appeared associated with a historic collapse in oil demand. A replacement of the United States by China? No one backs it up with data.

Outside the graphic, the conversation drifted where these things always drift: the etymology of petar. Some trace it to Latin and a 16th-century text; others recall that it wasn’t used on the street until headlines made it fashionable, with that “Lo vamos a petar” (“We’re going to smash it”) of August 2015. The review served, incidentally, to confirm that the word doesn’t come from Catalan.

On the geopolitical background, the readings are the usual ones: repression in Russia, Chinese debt, U.S. inflation and Vladimir Pilingui’s role as the universal explanation for almost everything. Even the turn toward nuclear energy is read as a narrative shift, not as a consequence of the cover.

What can really be expected

The conclusion with the most consensus is the least exciting: of the four, only Bitcoin seems to have long-term runway, and not in 2022 but in any year you choose. Ethereum has its own case; Litecoin and Cardano, by contrast, are considered written-off coins, with an increasingly debatable reason for being.

It’s also worth keeping in mind the most sensible thing said in the whole affair: when they tell you a crypto is going to smash it, sell. And another maxim that has aged well: the shoeshine boy who didn’t sell has more wealth than those who told him to sell.

So yes, the cover is a warning. It’s just that it probably warns of the opposite of what it seems: that someone with the power to set the narrative has already looked away. If those four behave as expected, more than one person will have to rewrite their thesis. If not, the cover will go into the archive of coincidences. With these people, neither outcome is surprising.