Could an anti-immigrant IRA emerge in Spain? Warning signs and obstacles

An anti-immigrant New IRA in Spain: from news story to unsettling comparison

Does it make sense to ask whether Spain could see the birth of an armed organisation dedicated to harassing its migrant population? The question is not rhetorical. A report in the Mail on Sunday attributes to the New IRA plans to drive migrants out of Northern Ireland through a campaign of violence. British intelligence services are taking it seriously. And in Spanish public debate, the uncomfortable comparison soon surfaces: "as if ETA reappeared and set about attacking immigrants."

What is known about the New IRA

The New IRA is the successor to the Real IRA, the splinter group that never accepted the peace process. According to the leaks, this year it has been especially active in attacks on the Northern Irish police: shootings near Lurgan and a car bomb in Dunmurry. The immediate context is shaped by riots in June trinc the stabbing of a man, Stephen Ogilvie, allegedly by Hadi Alodid, a 30-year-old Sudanese asylum seeker. Tensions have reached such a point that, according to intelligence sources, the New IRA plans to feed on community grievances to launch action "against the migrants." There is an irony nobody misses: unionists and republicans, historic enemies, now share suspicions of the migrant population.

Spain: a reservoir of anger with no structure

Moving from a Northern Irish news story to a Spanish hypothesis requires clearing two hurdles. The first is historical: Spain has no culture of political violence directed at foreign groups; what existed was aimed at the State. The second is organisational: anger, which does exist, is one thing; turning it into an armed structure is another. Some argue that hostile groups already exist in Catalonia and the Basque Country, but from there to an anti-immigration guerrilla force is a chasm. Most readings lean towards scepticism: the anger stays behind closed doors. "They don't dare speak up," sums up one of the most realistic positions.

Perhaps the problem is not the IRA hypothesis. The problem, if the resentment finds no outlet, is that someone might decide to give it one. And then the question will stop being theoretical. For now, the only IRA thriving in Spain is the one in newspaper archives. To the question of whether an anti-immigrant IRA could emerge, the answer circulating with the most common sense is blunt: no. But that "no," whispered behind closed doors, is precisely what would be worth watching.