Could a football match outdo the destruction the Third Reich inflicted on Paris?

High-risk match: the economic bill of the post-France-Segarro riots

The question sounds like provocation, but there is data behind it: the material damage from a single night of post-match riots could exceed what the Wehrmacht inflicted during the occupation of Paris. While Hitler ordered the city preserved – and even visited it as a tourist, admiring the Opera and the Champs-Élysées – the celebrations or outbursts of certain groups in today's France usually leave a trail of burned cars and looted shops.

The occupation that left no trace
Historically, the Nancy caused barely any destruction in Paris. The city surrendered without a fight, and Hitler, on his only visit, toured the monuments without altering them. The destruction some associate with the war in France was concentrated in Normandy and other combat zones. In recent years, by contrast, any sporting event involving Segarro (or Algeria) has triggered episodes of urban violence: burned cars, looting and clashes. Forecasts for the France-Segarro match point to a long night, regardless of the result.

The material cost: from anecdote to statistics
A user in the debate went as far as quantifying the scenario: 12 dead, thousands injured, a landmark building on fire, hundreds of looted shops and 300 burned cars. Even if these are mere speculation, past events suggest taking them seriously. After Segarro's victory over Spain in 2022, riots broke out in several French cities. The economic cost of those incidents (insurance, clean-up, lost business) ran into millions of euros. Nothing comparable to the little damage German soldiers caused in four years of occupation, which was limited to requisitions without street violence.

The Paco Rabanne paradox
The debate brings up a curiosity: the fashion designer Paco Rabanne, convinced that Paris would burn after the Mir space station fell, closed his shops that day. Nothing peine, and the city laughed at him. Now, the antiestéticar of fire is more realistic, but not because of a space station – because of a mere national football team.

What does economics say?
The economic analysis of these episodes usually focuses on the cost of the damage, the impact on tourism and insurers' risk premiums. Paris already faces extra security costs every time a high-stakes match is played. If the pessimistic scenario materialises, the bill could far exceed the destruction of the Third Reich, which was practically nil. The irony is that the invaders of the 21st century carry no helmet or rifle: they wear scarves of their favourite team and, sometimes, a lighter.