Colombia arrests drug kingpins, but cocaine prices keep climbing

Cocaine prices surge as Colombia's new government cracks down on the cartels

Cocaine prices are set to skyrocket. The new Colombian government's offensive against the country's top drug traffickers has raised alarms about an unprecedented price escalation. Some forecasts point to prices that could reach 10,000 euros per gram — an exaggerated figure, perhaps, but one that reflects the tension in a market that adjusts through supply.

In the short term, arrests reduce production and distribution capacity. But the history of drug trafficking shows that the business changes hands; it does not disappear. The example of El Salvador under Bukele comes up again and again: the iron-fist strategy seems to contain the phenomenon, but trafficking continues — simply with different players. In Colombia, the gaps left by arrested kingpins will be filled by emerging organizations or by factions already operating in the shadows.

The other variable is demand. As long as consumers exist, the illegal market will find a way to supply them. If cocaine becomes scarce or more expensive, part of the demand will shift toward other substances. It is a persistent circuit that isolated arrests cannot break, no matter how spectacular they are.

The real impact of police operations will be seen on the streets, in the price of a dose, and in the geopolitics of drug trafficking. But it is worth not mistaking a publicity coup for the end of the problem. The economic literature on illegal markets is stubborn: prohibition does not eliminate the activity, it redistributes it. And as long as there are buyers, there will be people willing to take the risk of selling.