Climate change made Spain's wildfires 20 times more likely
Human-caused climate change made wildfires in central Spain 20 times more likely, according to a new attribution analysis.
English · Original discussion in Spanish · Published
Spain's wildfires: the human factor made them 20 times more likely
The flames that swept across central Spain were no meteorological accident. A climate attribution study published this week argues that human-caused warming made the conditions behind that inferno twenty times more likely. Put plainly: what used to be a rare event is now twenty times more probable.
The study's author, Friederike Otto, a climatologist at Imperial College London, is blunt: "We are witnessing yet another disaster caused by the same factor: the burning of fossil fuels." This is not an opinion, but the conclusion of an analysis comparing today's world with the pre-industrial era. And the regional contrast adds a nuance few expected: in southwestern France, the likelihood of a fire of this magnitude has only doubled. The Iberian Peninsula, by contrast, bears the brunt.
Meanwhile, in the digital echo chambers, the response has been anything but scientific. Denial mixes with sarcasm, and the public debate shows that the problem is no longer just meteorological. It is also one of understanding. The bill for extreme weather is distributed unevenly, and so is the capacity to cope with it.
The flames that swept across central Spain were no meteorological accident. A climate attribution study published this week argues that human-caused warming made the conditions behind that inferno twenty times more likely. Put plainly: what used to be a rare event is now twenty times more probable.
The study's author, Friederike Otto, a climatologist at Imperial College London, is blunt: "We are witnessing yet another disaster caused by the same factor: the burning of fossil fuels." This is not an opinion, but the conclusion of an analysis comparing today's world with the pre-industrial era. And the regional contrast adds a nuance few expected: in southwestern France, the likelihood of a fire of this magnitude has only doubled. The Iberian Peninsula, by contrast, bears the brunt.
Meanwhile, in the digital echo chambers, the response has been anything but scientific. Denial mixes with sarcasm, and the public debate shows that the problem is no longer just meteorological. It is also one of understanding. The bill for extreme weather is distributed unevenly, and so is the capacity to cope with it.
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Summary of a discussion on Burbuja.info - Foro de economía, actualidad y política., translated from Spanish and reviewed before publication. Read the full discussion (17 replies).
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