Christian Democracy at its Lowest Point (After CIU and Citizens, Now the CDU)

The Christian Democratic Union (CDU) is experiencing one of its worst periods, evidenced by the loss of representation in the parliament of Mecklenburg-Pomerania and defeat in the race for the mayoralty of Berlin.

The German political landscape has undergone a considerable seismic shift this weekend, and the epicenter, as usual, has been the **Christian Democratic Union (CDU)**. In **Mecklenburg-Pomerania**, a 'Land' in eastern Germany, the Christian democrats have protagonized a historic debacle: for the first time in its existence, it will have no representatives in the regional parliament. The result was resounding, securing a Pyrrhic **4.9%** of the vote, falling short of the **5%** threshold needed to gain seats. The party leader and chancellor himself, **Friedrich Merz**, admitted that the result was a “disaster.”

The capital, **Berlin**, has also been the scene of a severe blow to the CDU. Although they came in second, they lost the mayoralty to the left-wing candidates. The candidate from **Die Linke**, **Elif Eralp**, is on track to become the first left-wing mayor in the German capital, a milestone for her party founded in **2007**. In the city-state, **Die Linke** received **25.1%** of the votes, while the **CDU** secured **19.2%**. The picture was completed by the far-right **AfD** as the third force with **15.8%**, trinc by the Greens with **14.3%** and the Social Democrats (SPD) with **12%**.

## The Debacle in Mecklenburg-Pomerania

In **Mecklenburg-Pomerania**, a territory with only **1.57 million inhabitants**, the victory belonged to the far-right **Alternative for Germany (AfD)**, which secured **38.1%** of the votes, according to projections from public television ZDF. The current president of the Land, the Social Democrat **Manuela Schwesig**, obtained **35.5%**. Despite this triumph, the **AfD** faces the impossibility of governing. The so-called "firebreak" against the far-right—a tacit agreement among other parties not to form coalitions with them—leaves the **AfD** isolated. **Schwesig**, for her part, is preparing to negotiate a centrist left-wing tripartite coalition that will allow her to remain at the head of the regional government. Her previous pact was with **Die Linke** (which obtained **6.5%** this time), but the sum does not reach a majority, so she must attempt to include the **Greens** (who secured **5.6%**).

**Friedrich Merz**, whose personal popularity is not exactly high (only **14%** of Germans consider him fit for office), had already faced a similar setback two weeks ago in **Saxony-Anhalt**. On that occasion, the **AfD** also achieved a very strong result, gaining **43.8%** of the votes. The **CDU** finds itself in a delicate position, with a critical section within the party holding her responsible for current problems. Merz, however, defends the need for structural reforms to modernize the German economy, even if they generate short-term discontent. "These reforms must be implemented; I assume this responsibility because I want our country to move forward," he declared.

## AfD, the Winner Unable to Govern

The phenomenon of the **AfD** is worthy of analysis. Since its founding in **2013**, the party has achieved electoral successes, especially in the eastern states of Germany, former territories of the GDR. However, its growth constantly runs into the aforementioned "firebreak" that prevents it from accessing power. In **Mecklenburg-Pomerania**, the **AfD**'s victory is, in practice, a Pyrrhic one. They cannot form a government, and the Social Democracy, despite coming in second, has more options to re-run its mandate.

This situation is repeated in other eastern territories. In **Thuringia**, in September **2024**, the **AfD** obtained **33.4%**, but the other parties united to elect the Christian Democrat **Mario Voigt** as president. In **Saxony-Anhalt**, as mentioned, they nearly reached an absolute majority. Now, in **Mecklenburg-Pomerania**, the **AfD** could theoretically come to power if it managed to gain sufficient support in a third investiture vote, where a simple majority is enough. The pro-Russian party **BSW** has hinted it might abstain, opening the door to **Ulrich Siegmund**, the **AfD** candidate. However, negotiations in **Magdeburg** are expected to be long and complex.

## The Causes of the Christian Democratic Decline

The decline of the **CDU** is not an isolated phenomenon. It is part of a broader trend affecting traditional center-right and center-left parties in Europe. The emergence of populist and far-right formations, capitalizing on social discontent and concerns about immigration and the economy, has eroded the bases of the most established parties. The **CDU**, which for decades was the pillar of the German political center, seems to have lost its ability to connect with a segment of the electorate.

Economic management, migration policies, and responses to global crises, such as energy or climate, are issues that generate division and which traditional parties seem unable to address convincingly. The figure of **Friedrich Merz**, a politician with a more conservative profile, has failed to reverse the downward trend. The lack of a clear narrative and the perception that the party is disconnected from the everyday concerns of citizens are factors contributing to this crisis. The **CDU** faces the challenge of reinventing itself to regain voter trust and secure its future in the German political scene.