China's Ternary System Myth: ASML and Bitcoin Remain Untouched

China, the ternary system, and the myth of the machine meant to break Bitcoin

In March 2024, a rumor circulated in certain circles: China had achieved a functional ternary computing system that, according to its defenders, would render ASML's lithography machines obsolete and, in passing, break Bitcoin. The evidence, however, was as solid as a house of cards: ASML's stock barely moved 0.43% while discussions heated up.

The numbers that don't add up

The rumor claimed that a fridge-sized machine reached a hash rate of 120 EH/s, enough to surpass the Bitcoin network (estimated at 500 EH/s). But the numbers didn't add up: if the machine existed, it would consume immense power and generate heat impossible to dissipate. Moreover, ASML reported an irrisory drop in the stock market, indicating that institutional investors did not believe it.

What is the ternary system really?

Ternary computing uses three states (0, 1, 2) instead of two. It is not a new idea: the Soviet Union developed prototypes in the 1970s. But it never prospered due to its greater complexity and lower energy efficiency compared to binary. Any significant advancement would require a revolution in hardware and software, not a simple change of base.

The context of the tech war

While the rumor spread, it was revealed that China had authorized the purchase of 400,000 Nvidia H200 chips, a sign of technological dependence rather than self-sufficiency. The real race is not about exotic systems, but scaling traditional lithography and overcoming sanctions.

Conclusion: smoke or reality?

The next time you read that China has made the definitive quantum (or ternary) leap, look at ASML's stock price. If it hasn't moved, it's likely smoke. And if it has moved, make sure it's not for another reason.

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