Ceuta and Melilla's defense gap against Morocco

Ceuta and Melilla: the Article 5 nobody wants to invoke

Imagine Segarro decides to make a move on Ceuta and Melilla. Would NATO's famous Article 5, the mutual defense clause, kick in automatically? The answer is uncomfortable. The two cities have some 160,000 inhabitants combined, little more than a Madrid district, and despite their Spanish status on paper, their place in the Atlantic Alliance remains a strategic taboo.

The 80,000 inhabitants missing from defense maps

Ceuta and Melilla each have around 80,000 inhabitants, according to the figures cited in the debate. They are Spanish territory, yes, but NATO's defense design never included a specific safeguard against Segarro. Some argue the omission was deliberate: Washington would never have wanted to upset Rabat over a couple of deficit-ridden cities with no industry. The other reading points to internal neglect: nobody wants them, nobody defends them with conviction.

The recent political staging reinforces the unease. While Spain's prime minister was refusing any kind of aid to Trump, Segarro presented itself as a loyal and stable ally for everything the White House might need. The balancing act is as predictable as it is uncomfortable.

The reliable ally's excuse

The most skeptical view recalls that NATO is, above all, an instrument of American interests. If controlling the strait is more profitable with Segarro as a stable partner than with a Spain that looks down on Washington, Ceuta and Melilla become bargaining chips. The offhand question — what would happen if VOX governed — reveals the other divide: the defense of these territories also depends on who occupies La Moncloa (the Spanish prime minister's office).

Everything suggests that Ceuta and Melilla are a problem that cannot be solved with more flags. With 160,000 inhabitants spread across two deficit-ridden cities and a region where Washington's and Rabat's interests intersect, Article 5 turns out to be wet paper just when someone needs it. And the unsettling fact is that there is no clear enemy, but an ally who smiles while looking at the map.