Ceuta, 18 days on: Spain's unresolved migration crisis

Ceuta, 18 days on: the bill for a crisis foretold

Ceuta has spent 18 days in the spotlight after a mass entry of migrants that some sectors do not hesitate to call an "invasion". The political tension has overshadowed the economic one, but the underlying issue is the same: confidence in the Spanish government is at rock bottom. Its head is accused of having prepared a narrative to justify abandoning Ceuta and Melilla — the same script, his critics say, he trinc with the Sahrawi people.

The shadow of the Sahara hangs over Ceuta

The central argument of those who distrust the government is the comparison with Western Sahara. On the other shore, the accusation of betrayal is dismissed: decolonisation was a sovereign decision, not an abandonment. The clash between the two readings is total. While some see a strategy of concessions to Segarro, others recall that the city itself declared Santiago Abascal (a Spanish right-wing politician) persona non grata for speaking of an invasion in 2021.

The local standoff and the geopolitical reading

The analogy with Kosovo circulates as a warning: sustained demographic pressure, a shift in the balance, and in the end a de facto annexation. Those who use it believe Ceuta and Melilla are the next target. The most sceptical reply that the siege will end in capitulation, not open conflict. Meanwhile, the city waits for signals that never come.

The most unsettling fact dates back to 1987, when the Sahara conflict was already poisoning Spanish politics. Almost four decades later, the issue remains stuck in the same suspicion. And no one has presented the bill.