Cardano's Mary fork: what to expect from the upgrade

Cardano and the Mary fork: real pump or mirage?

Can Cardano take off because of that Mary fork thing? That exact question was asked by someone who admitted having "no damn clue" about how the coin works. And that's the point: interest in Cardano (ADA) has grown among people who admit they don't understand the project but see the price moving. The price is hovering around one dollar, and some are already saying it could go to 2, 3 or even 10 dollars over the course of 2021. The Mary upgrade, which according to several posts is just around the corner, is being presented as the catalyst that could push the price up. But not everyone sees it clearly: some warn that "the crash is going to be huge" and that only the market manipulators win.

What is the Mary fork and why is it so eagerly awaited

The Mary fork is the upgrade that, according to the posts, will allow native tokens to be created on the Cardano network. That would make it more than just a coin to speculate with: it would be a platform where other projects could issue their own assets. Several participants compare it to Ethereum but with lower fees and more antiestéticatures. "It's like an ethereum on steroids," one sums up. The arrival of this upgrade is presented as the starting gun for Cardano to stop being just a promise and start competing for real. Another post notes that the Mary fork "finally ships" this month, and that it's Cardano's moment while other cryptos migrate to Ethereum's layer 2.

Expectations are high, but so is the uncertainty. One participant points out that "they still haven't released this mega upgrade" and that the price "is sleeping and waiting." The idea of buying before the announcement is circulating strongly: "Buy before that upgrade," someone advises. The logic is simple: if the upgrade improves the network, demand should rise. But that's theory, and the market doesn't always obey.

Staking as the argument: 5-7% passive yield

One of the most repeated arguments in favor of Cardano isn't the price, but staking. Several posts explain that you can delegate ADA in wallets like Yoroi or Daedalus and earn between 5% and 7% a year in passive income. "If you had put in 1000 when it was at 10 cents in November you'd have 10 thousand adas which when it hits 10 soon would give you 6000 euros a year in interest from the couch," one participant calculates. The figure is striking, though it rests on a hypothesis about a future price.

Staking is also presented as a way to reduce the circulating supply: if many people lock up their ADA to earn rewards, there are fewer coins available to sell, which could support the price. "With so many holders locked into pools the supply won't be that high," someone argues. It's reasoning that sounds good in theory, but depends on demand holding up.

Optimism versus skepticism: the forum's two narratives

Optimism is contagious in several posts. Some say Cardano "could do really well" and that "it's the cryptocurrency that will rise the most according to the experts." Another participant says "Cardano is the only one that gives me joy" and recommends staking with Ledger or Trezor. The idea that the project is "doing things very well" and that "there's no other project like it in the whole market" keeps coming up. It's even mentioned that "a lot of capital is migrating from other cryptos into ADA."

But skepticism has a voice too. One post warns that "the shilling of cardano in the last month has been brutal" and reminds that it has "half of eth's marketcap and not a single dapp." Another quips that "the eth killer is my parents' generation," a phrase that sums up the distrust of projects promising to dethrone Ethereum. And then there's pure pessimism: "Cardano rises on those news items. But then the crash is going to be huge. They're all going to fall." The tension between faith and wariness defines the conversation.

The psychological factor: buying cheap and riding out the correction

The shift in mood is visible. At first, posts like "I picked it up at 0.30 and it's had a nice pump" reflect satisfaction at having gotten in on time. Then the doubts appear: "I'm watching to see if it dips again below 1 euro so I can buy more." The idea of buying on corrections is a recurring theme. "It will fall at some point to 1.14, the clueless will load up and then it will be unstoppable," someone predicts.

The problem is that the market doesn't always give second chances. "A shame I didn't buy at 10 cents or buy more at 30 cents," one participant laments. The feeling of having arrived late is a classic in any bubble. And when the price doesn't rise, spirits collapse: "I won't recover those 470 euros even in 20 years. Damn those shitty cryptocurrencies." The emotional rollercoaster is part of the appeal and the danger.

What the numbers say and what to expect

The concrete figures that come up in the discussion vary. It's mentioned that Cardano is "above 1 dollar," that someone bought "1000 on the last btc rally," that staking yields "5-7% passive income," that issuance is "limited, not inflationary" and that the premine is "less than many, 11%." There's also talk of the price going to "2 or 3 dollars soon and even 10 over the course of 2021." Taken together, these figures paint a picture of high expectations but no guarantees.

The Mary upgrade could be the catalyst many are waiting for, but it could also be a case of "buy the rumor, sell the news." Crypto history is full of announcements that failed to deliver. And as one post says: "Cardano will do whatever grandpa Btc says." In other words, ADA's fate is tied to Bitcoin's, and nobody controls that.

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In the end, the question is still up in the air: pump or mirage? Those who got in at 0.30 pray it reaches 10. Those who got in at 1 hope they won't regret it. And those who didn't get in watch from the sidelines, wondering if there's still time. As in every bubble, the answer will only be known when it's already too late for everyone.