CaixaBank warns half of Spain’s population will be foreign-born

CaixaBank: Half of Spain's population will not be native-born within 25 years

CaixaBank used its quarterly earnings presentation to issue a demographic warning that has triggered significant concern. The bank earned €1.572 billion in the first quarter, a 7% year-on-year increase, and added 372,000 new customers over twelve months. However, CEO Gonzalo Gortázar went further: he stated that in 25 years, half of Spain's population will not have been born in the country. He called for “institutional seriousness” to manage the upcoming social change.

The figure is not arbitrary. The bank itself links its customer growth to the mass regularization of immigrants. In other words, the entity openly acknowledges that its business depends, at least partly, on migration trends. The lingering question is whether Gortázar’s warning is a sincere alert or a justification for a model that is already stretched thin.

The data visible on the streets

Pessimistic analyses suggest the bank’s projection falls short. If children born to foreign parents are included, the percentage of the population with migrant origins would already be around 50% in some territories. Spain has nearly 60 million inhabitants, and three million arrived in the last two years. In cities like Valencia, neighborhoods exist where the immigrant population already exceeds 50%, and the pace shows no signs of slowing down.

However, the distribution will not be uniform. It is projected that the percentage of students with foreign origins in schools will vastly exceed that in elderly care homes, where residents will remain predominantly local. This paints a picture of a country facing difficult generational and cultural fractures.

The double face of “institutional seriousness”]

There is an irony in a bank calling for institutional seriousness. CaixaBank is not exactly an innocent actor in the demographic and housing crisis. It financed the property bubble, absorbed Bankia during the crisis trinc public rescue via FROB (Fund for Orderly Bank Restructuring), and today profits from a mortgage portfolio benefiting from structural supply shortages. When an executive from this bank asks politicians to avoid “short-term populism,” many interpret it as a request to leave untouched a model that feeds their business.

The contrast is clear: while the entity makes more money than ever thanks to sustained housing demand, the social problems generated by this dynamic are felt in rising rents and saturated public services. The “seriousness” requested by the bank, according to other analysts, is simply what ensures the business continues without disruption.

Housing: the core issue

Behind the demographic forecast lies the real estate market. Supply is strangled by a lack of licenses, rising land costs, and taxation, while demand grows driven precisely by migratory flows. The result is a vicious cycle: prices do not fall, housing becomes a major problem, and social discontent is channeled against immigration, when the real issue is the lack of housing policy.

This is where the debate stalls. No one doubts the demographic data; what is disputed is how to handle them. One side calls for serious planning and management, while another believes the only possible future is the one already unfolding in the streets. CaixaBank’s warning is, fundamentally, a message to politicians: social change is here and will not be reversed. But the uncomfortable question, which Gortázar himself does not answer, is who will pay the bill and if institutional seriousness simply means protecting vested interests.