Bitcoin as precursor to digital currency: conspiracy theory
Bitcoin seen as Overton window for central bank digital currencies in analysis of CBDC, XRP and debt over 1,995 days.
English · Original discussion in Spanish · Published
Bitcoin as rehearsal for upcoming digital money
A US dollar bill signed by the national treasurer ends up on the board of an interbank payments company. That invisible thread between traditional money and what is coming has been debated for nearly two thousand days in a corner of a forum where no one expected serious monetary system analysis. The central thesis: Bitcoin is not the end of the road, but the Overton window that peine the door for people to accept central bank digital currencies without resistance.
The initial premise is not original, but well-constructed. Bitcoin holds more than half of the crypto market capitalization, one trillion dollars out of a total of two, almost double Spain's GDP. Its official history —Satoshi Nakamoto, the pizza, geeks— sounds too good to be true. And its technology, as a payment tool, is expensive and slow: mining consumes more electricity than all of Argentina. The conclusion at the start is that fiat money has its days numbered and the successor will be digital, traceable and controllable.
40% of circulating money printed in twelve months
The data underpinning the entire argument is this: four out of ten monetary units circulating globally were created in the last year. Direct checks to families with incomes below $100,000 —the stimulus checks— flood the liquidity market while inflation devours savings. The diagnosis is that the system won't break because it is already broken: it will explode, and the reset will not be voluntary.
On this scenario, suspicion is projected. The dollar ceases to be a reserve currency, the new system could be backed by gold, all digital, no bills. The G-7 summit in the UK on June 11, 2021, was pointed to as the official launch of the reset. The date passed without the announced event occurring, and the issue kept rolling.
XRP, Ripple and banking: the project tied to the system
Here the analysis becomes more technical and uncomfortable. Against Bitcoin's decentralized purity, there is an asset born within the machinery: XRP, the token running on the Ripple ledger. The company develops interbank payment software and its board included a former US national treasurer, the same one who signed bills. For those holding this thesis, XRP is strongly linked to the IMF, World Bank and Bank for International Settlements.
The counterargument comes from another angle: if Ripple offers domesticated Bitcoin for banks, better stay out. And the answer is not to invest where you don't understand what you are doing. The discussion shifted to ISO 20022 standards, whose deployment would mark global interoperability for cross-border payments, and adoption timelines in Europe.
The non-existent Chinese social credit system
One of the most interesting parts of the exchange dismantles a common belief. Someone who lived years in China, with vvife and family there, argues that the supposed citizen points system is an invention spread by Western media. In China there are no pandemic control measures or anything similar, he says; what exists is an open dictatorship where everyone knows the rules. The eYuan, however, is fully adopted in cities: officials and military receive salaries in digital yuan and almost no one uses cash.
The warning extracted is uncomfortable: the day they implement something similar here, they will say it already worked there and improved the country. Digital identity does not require years of preparation in Spain, where the NIF (tax ID) has traced every citizen for decades.
$36 trillion debt and lack of buyers
The thread culminates in the problem no one discusses: US debt, $36 trillion, with interest exceeding the defense budget. A September 10, 2001 audit revealed a $2.3 trillion discrepancy, according to the thread. Goldman Sachs' alert about lack of bidders for long-term Treasury bonds closes the circle: a currency is worth what its demand makes it worth.
Gold returns through the Treasury door
Judy Shelton's appointment as US Treasury advisor, a declared defender of reintroducing gold into the monetary system, is read as a signal. She was nominated to lead the Federal Reserve in 2020. If they wanted her there, the position matters. The lingering question: what if they tokenize gold and then revalue it?
With these elements, migration to digital money should be massive and silent. It remains unequal, slow and full of loose ends. No one fully explains why.
A US dollar bill signed by the national treasurer ends up on the board of an interbank payments company. That invisible thread between traditional money and what is coming has been debated for nearly two thousand days in a corner of a forum where no one expected serious monetary system analysis. The central thesis: Bitcoin is not the end of the road, but the Overton window that peine the door for people to accept central bank digital currencies without resistance.
The initial premise is not original, but well-constructed. Bitcoin holds more than half of the crypto market capitalization, one trillion dollars out of a total of two, almost double Spain's GDP. Its official history —Satoshi Nakamoto, the pizza, geeks— sounds too good to be true. And its technology, as a payment tool, is expensive and slow: mining consumes more electricity than all of Argentina. The conclusion at the start is that fiat money has its days numbered and the successor will be digital, traceable and controllable.
40% of circulating money printed in twelve months
The data underpinning the entire argument is this: four out of ten monetary units circulating globally were created in the last year. Direct checks to families with incomes below $100,000 —the stimulus checks— flood the liquidity market while inflation devours savings. The diagnosis is that the system won't break because it is already broken: it will explode, and the reset will not be voluntary.
On this scenario, suspicion is projected. The dollar ceases to be a reserve currency, the new system could be backed by gold, all digital, no bills. The G-7 summit in the UK on June 11, 2021, was pointed to as the official launch of the reset. The date passed without the announced event occurring, and the issue kept rolling.
XRP, Ripple and banking: the project tied to the system
Here the analysis becomes more technical and uncomfortable. Against Bitcoin's decentralized purity, there is an asset born within the machinery: XRP, the token running on the Ripple ledger. The company develops interbank payment software and its board included a former US national treasurer, the same one who signed bills. For those holding this thesis, XRP is strongly linked to the IMF, World Bank and Bank for International Settlements.
The counterargument comes from another angle: if Ripple offers domesticated Bitcoin for banks, better stay out. And the answer is not to invest where you don't understand what you are doing. The discussion shifted to ISO 20022 standards, whose deployment would mark global interoperability for cross-border payments, and adoption timelines in Europe.
The non-existent Chinese social credit system
One of the most interesting parts of the exchange dismantles a common belief. Someone who lived years in China, with vvife and family there, argues that the supposed citizen points system is an invention spread by Western media. In China there are no pandemic control measures or anything similar, he says; what exists is an open dictatorship where everyone knows the rules. The eYuan, however, is fully adopted in cities: officials and military receive salaries in digital yuan and almost no one uses cash.
The warning extracted is uncomfortable: the day they implement something similar here, they will say it already worked there and improved the country. Digital identity does not require years of preparation in Spain, where the NIF (tax ID) has traced every citizen for decades.
$36 trillion debt and lack of buyers
The thread culminates in the problem no one discusses: US debt, $36 trillion, with interest exceeding the defense budget. A September 10, 2001 audit revealed a $2.3 trillion discrepancy, according to the thread. Goldman Sachs' alert about lack of bidders for long-term Treasury bonds closes the circle: a currency is worth what its demand makes it worth.
Gold returns through the Treasury door
Judy Shelton's appointment as US Treasury advisor, a declared defender of reintroducing gold into the monetary system, is read as a signal. She was nominated to lead the Federal Reserve in 2020. If they wanted her there, the position matters. The lingering question: what if they tokenize gold and then revalue it?
With these elements, migration to digital money should be massive and silent. It remains unequal, slow and full of loose ends. No one fully explains why.
Also available in: Deutsch
Summary of a discussion on Burbuja.info - Foro de economía, actualidad y política., translated from Spanish and reviewed before publication. Read the full discussion (3506 replies).
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