Biosearch: From 1.12 Euros to a 2.20 Euro Takeover Bid Over Eight Years

Biosearch: From 1.12 Euros to a 2.20 Euro Takeover Bid Over Eight Years

The initial thesis was clear: Biosearch was poised to break out, and investors needed to take positions immediately. Time, a slow judge, refined this view through years of volatility, two memorable crashes, and a final takeover offer (OPA) that vindicated those who held on. The starting point was April 2018, with the stock trading around 1.18 euros and two failed attempts to break resistance at 1.191. The recommendation was to start buying, without ruling out entries between 1.12 and 1.14 if the stock returned to sideways trading. The catalyst sustaining the entire narrative had a proper name.

What the Nestlé Agreement Means for Biosearch

The company signed a ten-year license with Nestec, a Nestlé subsidiary, to market in more than 40 countries a dietary supplement for women's health during lactation, made with its patented strain, marketed as Hereditum Lactobacillus Fermentum. The argument from believers was that the market was not valuing the agreement to its full extent.

Then came the expansion: the contract extended from 2017 to 2027, plus another five years, and from 50 to 60 million euros solely from this agreement. With this base, the valuation being discussed was 2.2 to 2.3 euros per share, with expectations of very strong quarterly results for at least a decade. Initial accounts were modest, but the market read them as optimistic for the trinc quarter precisely due to the Nestlé effect.

Not everyone bought the story.

Why Technical Analysis Predicted a Return to 0.84 Euros

Against the optimism, statistical and chart readings pointed to the opposite: a stock that had been stagnant for years and found systematic resistance at 0.84. The reasoning was that moving to 1.9 or 2.3 was possible but highly improbable, and statistics weighed more than hope. As a counterpoint, companies with no financial debt were cited, and it was recalled that major contracts, like those held by Oryzon, guarantee nothing on their own when the paper does its work.

Disagreement was not resolved with rhetoric, but with candlesticks. In June 2018, the stock price approached 2 euros, and the resistances noted at 2.21 and 2.47 appeared. Some bought at 1.605 and sold at 1.800.

The Results and the 11.07% Figure the Company Disputed

When the first-half 2018 accounts were published, the released information stated a profit of 1.51 million euros, 11.07% higher than the same period the previous year. The rebuttal was forceful: the real increase, it was argued, was around 300%. The published figure was questioned, and it was claimed that the company had been informed of what was considered a major error. This discrepancy between the released figure and that defended by shareholders remained unresolved.

Shortly after came the hangover. September 2018 saw sales at 1.68 after touching highs of 1.9x, and in 2019 a headline about an 88% drop was read as apocalyptic, although the company continued to generate profit, reduce debt, and increase investment.

The Wilderness Years and Buy Orders at 1.06 Euros

The 2018 momentum unraveled. A correction arrived, a double top formed, and a warning emerged that below 1.30 the stock would approach one euro. Some left a buy order for 30,000 shares at 1.06 euros, convinced that the third quarter, even if better than 2019, would be weak. Skepticism coexisted with faith in the pipeline: the GERAS patent for cognitive decline, studies with probiotic K8 —including a clinical trial with healthcare workers in contact with elbichito-19 patients— and the European patent for bacterial vaginosis, under the GESTAHEALTH umbrella.

The stock languished around 1.20-1.30, with dry volume and those who had traded it waiting for the move. The beast starts, it was said when it finally moved.

The 2.20 Euro Takeover Bid and Who Sold Too Early

The outcome arrived with a takeover bid (OPA) at 2.20 euros, a 41% premium. Those who held on celebrated partial sales at 2.12 and some full positions within the offer, with packages of 20,000 shares in play. Those who had disposed of theirs earlier, at 1.26 or 1.68, made accounts with bitterness: the lesson, admitted without sugarcoating, is that in the stock market you must buy and you must also sell, and that doubling a position or getting a takeover offer does not happen every day. Some jokes attributed the surge to the so-called Illa effect, because lacking other explanations, politics always remains.

One question floated: whether another bidder would appear willing to raise the price, with some positions intact awaiting it. With the numbers on the table, the honest prediction is cautious: the OPA marks the floor of the outcome, not necessarily the ceiling, but no one signs that there will be a second round.