Basque PP and business leaders push voting rights for ETA exiles' descendants

The Basque People's Party (PP) and a group of entrepreneurs have begun meeting to promote a law restoring the right to vote in regional elections for Basques who left due to ETA pressure and their descendants. The estimated figure is around 300,000 potential voters, though no official census supports this.

The Basque PP and entrepreneurs, both in the Basque Country and Madrid, are moving forward with what sounds like political archaeology: restoring voting rights in Basque regional elections to those who fled Guipúzcoa, Vizcaya or Álava escaping ETA, as well as their children and grandchildren. A recent meeting took place at the Casa vasca in Madrid. Basque PP president **Javier de Andrés** confirmed the issue is on the table. The circulating figure is approximately **300,000 potential voters**. No official census backs this up, but it is the estimate used by university sources cited by the party.

## An exodus of 180,000 people that shifted the census

The starting point is a report by the Center for Studies, Training and Social Analysis (CEFAS) of CEU, titled "The Basque exodus as a consequence of ideological persecution." According to this work, between **1976 and 2022**, around **180,000 people** left the Basque Country due to pressure from ETA and nationalism. This equates to nearly 9% of the Basque population in 1977.

The report argues that this mass departure substantially altered the census and had a multiplier effect: many who left did not have children in Euskadi, and those children would have had grandchildren. Hence the talk of 300,000 potential voters, a figure the report itself acknowledges is not scientifically quantified. The autonomous community, the study says, has aged the most in Spain, both due to falling fertility rates and the exodus.

The idea being studied by entrepreneurs and the Basque PP is that this group can vote in regional elections. The last ones were held on **April 21, 2024**, so the next ones, at the latest, would be in spring 2028. The timing is not coincidental: it would coincide with a hypothetical coalition government between PP and Vox in Madrid, something the text considers foreseeable. The political calculation is evident: these votes would mostly go to constitutionalist forces and, in particular, to the PP, to the detriment of the PNV and Bildu.

## Rajoy tried it in 2012 but it ended up in a drawer

It is not a new idea. In **2012**, the government of **Mariano Rajoy** promoted a legislative initiative to recognize the right to vote in Euskadi for those forced to leave for political reasons. It was drafted by professors, who acknowledged the technical complications and defended its viability. It was never politically pushed. When the motion of censure in 2018 removed Rajoy from La Moncloa, the text remained in a drawer.

A year earlier, in **2011**, Lehendakari **Patxi López** had approved the so-called "Return Plan," an initiative to facilitate the return to the Basque Country of citizens and entrepreneurs exiled by threats, extortion and violence from ETA. It aimed not only to recover people but also economic activity promoters and companies that had moved their headquarters outside Euskadi. The plan included institutional and economic support.

Today, the Basque government led by **Imanol Pradales** is working on another related matter. In May 2026, it preliminarily approved the Draft Law on the Basque Community Abroad, known as the new Diaspora Law, which would replace the current 1994 law. The text extends Basque citizenship abroad to great-great-grandchildren of emigrants, creates a voluntary registry, contemplates access to public healthcare and promotes external voting. Thus, the debate over who is Basque and who can vote is already open, albeit through another channel.

## Economic cost: €25 billion and a 24% GDP loss

The economic background is the least discussed and perhaps the most relevant. A report published in the International Journal on Terrorism Studies (RIET), signed by Deusto University professor **Luis María Arrieta**, estimates the economic damage caused by ETA at **€25 billion**. It adds something more uncomfortable: during the long period of terrorist activity, the Basque economy had the worst performance among all Spanish autonomous communities.

According to that analysis, the community lost internal and external investment, resulting in a relative loss of **43% of its capital stock** and **24% of GDP**. All this, Arrieta emphasizes, despite having the Economic Agreement (Concierto Económico) and prudent management of its institutions throughout the period. The relocation of hundreds of companies and decision centers meant the loss of a significant part of the business fabric and, perhaps, more than **30,000 high-value-added jobs**.

The report's diagnosis is harsh: the Basque Country currently ranks last in Spain for entrepreneurship and suffers a deficit in capital, entrepreneurs and quality employment. The fiscal model, it says, is limitedly attractive for capturing the investment it needs. This is the type of data that explains why some Basque entrepreneurs, in Euskadi and Madrid, have sat down to discuss a voting law for the diaspora. It is not just about ballots; it is also a way to recover what was lost.

The legal discussion is not simple. Recognizing the right to vote in regional elections for people who do not reside in the autonomous community requires fitting it into the Statute of Gernika, the Organic Law on the General Electoral System and the electoral census itself. The jurists who drafted the 2012 bill knew this and still considered it viable. What has been lacking until now is the political will to push it through. If the project materializes, the scenario in the Vitoria Parliament could change significantly. If not, it will remain a drawer full of papers and a round number: 300,000.