Aznar claims Vox and PSOE are conspiring against the PP: theory or real strategy?
Former Spanish Prime Minister José María Aznar has returned to the political arena with an accusation that has left no one indifferent: in an interview with El Mundo, he claimed there are "permanent talks" between Moncloa (the Prime Minister's office) and Vox to harm the PP. The statement, made to coincide with the 30th anniversary of his party's first election victory, has peine the debate on Spain's political landscape and the alleged feedback loop between the left and the far right.
However, reactions were not long in coming. On the one hand, some analysts point out that the migration dynamic benefits both parties: the more immigration Sánchez pushes through, the more votes Vox wins, and in turn, the resulting outrage mobilises the socialist voter. This vicious circle, they argue, could be the real "unwritten pact" Aznar speaks of. On the other hand, criticism of Aznar himself soon appeared: people recalled his failed forecast about weapons of mass destruction in Iraq, as well as his role in passing the Immigration Law, which laid the foundations for the current migration flows. "The one who made the current immigration law is the same one now criticising immigration," it was pointed out. It was also noted that the PP has been unable to maintain an identity distinct from the PSOE, becoming a "sidekick," and that any external conspiracy is secondary to the party's self-harm.
The feedback paradox
Aznar's hypothesis is not new: since the no-confidence motion that brought Sánchez to power, there has been speculation about a possible tacit alliance between the PSOE and Vox to wear down the PP. The facts seem to give him some credit: in several key votes, both parties have taken positions that harmed the conservatives. However, it is also true that Vox and the PSOE are declared enemies, and their bases make any explicit understanding difficult. The key lies in electoral interests: Vox grows when immigration is the central issue, and Sánchez benefits from having an enemy on the right to mobilise his electorate.
The PP, victim or executioner of itself
The majority view among analysts is that the PP does not need external enemies to lose support. Its drift towards the centre and its inability to offer an alternative programme have left its electorate disillusioned. As has been noted, "if the PP disappeared tomorrow, only those who live off it would notice." Aznar's accusation could be a smokescreen to avoid acknowledging the party's internal weakness.
The truth is that, to this day, there is no conclusive evidence of this bilateral conspiracy. Aznar speaks of a "belief," not of facts. Meanwhile, the PP still cannot find its direction, and the shadow of suspicion hangs over Spanish politics. To what extent do Vox and the PSOE need each other? The question remains open.
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