Ayuso on the ropes: the names in the frame to replace her

The penthouse that could bring down Ayuso: the succession scenarios

The fall of Isabel Díaz Ayuso is a possibility that would have sounded like a joke a year ago. Today, the penthouse scandal and internal murmurs within Madrid's PP have turned it into a serious question. At stake is the crown jewel of Spain's centre-right: the region that weighs most in the country's GDP and the Popular Party's main electoral asset.

The names circulating at PP headquarters

The first piece of information doing the rounds is that the national leadership is already weighing alternatives. Two names keep coming up: Cayetana Álvarez de Toledo and Ester Muñoz, both with a hard-edged profile and good relations with the party top brass. At the regional level, Alfonso Serrano, secretary general of the Madrid PP, and Enrique Osorio are mentioned, though neither has the current president's electoral pull.

The mayor, José Luis Martínez Almeida, appears on every shortlist, but his figure generates division. Some see him as the natural heir; others, as an artificial product incapable of standing on his own without Ayuso. He also carries a contradiction his critics like to invoke: he arrived at the city hall promising to end Madrid Central, and the city is today a patchwork of roadworks and traffic restrictions. The practical conclusion is that the PP has no clear replacement, and that plays in Ayuso's favour.

The penthouse case, or how to buy yourself a problem

The trigger for all of this is the purchase of a penthouse by the regional government of Madrid. The official version, defended by the president and by Feijóo, is that office premises were acquired. The critical version holds that the property has residential use, that it is located opposite the home of Ayuso's mother, that there is no file justifying the deal, and that it was put up for sale as soon as journalists began digging.

The case has all the ingredients of the PP's great scandals: a direct purchase, a sudden resale and a friendship with the businessman involved. The difference is that this time the party cannot afford another bill. From an economic standpoint, the deal makes no sense unless the real need for the property is explained, and that explanation has not arrived.

The rescue-plan theory

A theory is circulating that many take seriously. The plan would have several strands: Feijóo redefining the concept of a penthouse to make it fit that of commercial premises, a favourable judge who dismisses the case, and a friendly businessman who buys the property for 10 million euros. That money would allow the Madrid regional government to present the operation as a perfect deal, even with funds left over to pay those affected by the wildfires. In that script, Ayuso would end up delivering an epic speech against the left and could make the leap to the Moncloa, the Spanish prime minister's residence.

Meanwhile, the big asset managers keep their faith in the Madrid economy: BlackRock and Vanguard remain on the president's side, but the political noise tells another story. The irony of the plan is that, if it peine, it would make economic sense. Madrid needs revenue, and a sale at that price would avert an accounting scandal.

The most likely outcome, given the precedents and Ayuso's electoral muscle, is that the president stays where she is. But the margin is narrower than ever. If the court dismisses the case and the sale goes through, she will emerge stronger. If the investigation advances and a shaky file comes to light, the succession will be a matter of weeks. The only certainty is that the PP cannot afford to let Madrid burn, which is precisely what is starting to happen.