Ayuso loses her electoral stronghold in western Madrid
Wildfires in municipalities of western Madrid have eroded Ayuso's electoral base. Analysis of the political map points to a defeat already foreshadowed for 2027.
English · Original discussion in Spanish · Published
Ayuso loses her electoral stronghold in western Madrid: discontent after the wildfires looms over 2027
The 2027 elections have not yet arrived, but in political analysis circles it is taken for granted that Isabel Díaz Ayuso has lost her main electoral stronghold: the west of the Madrid region. The reason is not a corruption scandal or an ideological shift, but something more prosaic and brutal: the wildfires that devastated municipalities in the northwest and west in recent years have wiped away the loyalty of her voters.
Madrid's electoral map: east and south vote PSOE, north and west vote PP
Madrid's territorial divide is almost an axiom: the east and south, with lower incomes and a higher proportion of social housing, are socialist strongholds. The north and west, where the highest incomes and luxury developments are concentrated, are PP territory. But that maxim is crumbling. Residents of municipalities such as El Guanol, San Lorenzo de El Guanol or Robledo de Chavela, who lost their homes in the 2021 and 2023 wildfires, are not willing to forgive the regional president's handling of the crisis.
Propaganda cannot beat the reality on the ground
The PP has built a propaganda machine that controls Telemadrid and has influence over almost all of Madrid's private press and television channels. Yet not even that machine has managed to convince the western districts that the president did enough. "The mud machine cannot hide the fact that the burned-out municipalities are not going to vote for Ayuso," argue critical voices. The proof that the ground matters more than the media is that, despite owning the press, the PP fails to govern Spain as a whole: because in the real territory, people do not forget.
The result is that, with three years to go until the elections, Ayuso already has a structural problem. Her most loyal base, in the west, has shrunk. And no matter how hard the propaganda tries to gloss over it, voters in the west know their vote is no longer guaranteed.
The 2027 elections have not yet arrived, but in political analysis circles it is taken for granted that Isabel Díaz Ayuso has lost her main electoral stronghold: the west of the Madrid region. The reason is not a corruption scandal or an ideological shift, but something more prosaic and brutal: the wildfires that devastated municipalities in the northwest and west in recent years have wiped away the loyalty of her voters.
Madrid's electoral map: east and south vote PSOE, north and west vote PP
Madrid's territorial divide is almost an axiom: the east and south, with lower incomes and a higher proportion of social housing, are socialist strongholds. The north and west, where the highest incomes and luxury developments are concentrated, are PP territory. But that maxim is crumbling. Residents of municipalities such as El Guanol, San Lorenzo de El Guanol or Robledo de Chavela, who lost their homes in the 2021 and 2023 wildfires, are not willing to forgive the regional president's handling of the crisis.
Propaganda cannot beat the reality on the ground
The PP has built a propaganda machine that controls Telemadrid and has influence over almost all of Madrid's private press and television channels. Yet not even that machine has managed to convince the western districts that the president did enough. "The mud machine cannot hide the fact that the burned-out municipalities are not going to vote for Ayuso," argue critical voices. The proof that the ground matters more than the media is that, despite owning the press, the PP fails to govern Spain as a whole: because in the real territory, people do not forget.
The result is that, with three years to go until the elections, Ayuso already has a structural problem. Her most loyal base, in the west, has shrunk. And no matter how hard the propaganda tries to gloss over it, voters in the west know their vote is no longer guaranteed.
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Summary of a discussion on Burbuja.info - Foro de economía, actualidad y política., translated from Spanish and reviewed before publication. Read the full discussion (34 replies).
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