Asteroid 1999 AN10 Will Not Hit Earth in 2027
Asteroid 1999 AN10 will pass 388,960 km from Earth in 2027, with no impact risk. Collision probability is one in ten million for 2039.
English · Original discussion in Spanish · Published
Asteroid 1999 AN10 will pass 388,960 km from Earth in 2027
On August 27, 2027, asteroid (137108) 1999 AN10 will pass 388,960 kilometers from Earth, equivalent to 0.0026 astronomical units. This figure debunks the apocalyptic prophecy circulating online, which claims the object will strike the planet and cause the extinction of three-quarters of humanity. The distance is close, yes, but far from a death sentence. The asteroid's orbit is well-determined: it has been tracked in images since 1955 and accumulated 166 observations by 2006.
What the August 7, 2027, prophecy really says
The apocalyptic tale mixes Nostradamus with forum astronomy. The starting point is a quatrain attributed to the French prophet, speaking of a "great King of terror" and "resurrecting the great King of AN-Golmois" in 1999, seven months later. From there, it jumps to the asteroid's code, 1999 AN10, and fixes the impact date: August 7, 2027. The numerical coincidence between the discovery year and the object's name is, for believers, proof that nothing is accidental.
It does not end there. According to this same current, the planet has increased in size, explaining current seismic movements and a stronger Earth magnetic field in 2027. The asteroid's chemical composition would be the third reason for it being drawn toward Earth. The impact would occur at one of the poles. There is no margin for error, they say: everything is perfection.
The orbital calculation debunking the impact
The astronomical community handles different numbers. Researchers Andrea Milani, Steven R. Chesley, and Giovanni B. Valsecchi have calculated a one in ten million chance that 1999 AN10 will return on a collision course in 2039. One in ten million. To put it in perspective: it is more likely you will win the EuroMillions twice in a row than that.
The object will pass 388,960 kilometers, a distance that is a breath in astronomical terms but practically the difference between a headline and extinction. The orbit is well-determined enough to rule out the catastrophist scenario for 2027. This does not stop the asteroid from being tracked.
The real risk is not what we know, but what we do not see
Here comes the interesting twist. The most dangerous asteroids are not those we have logged, but those we do not know. An object 50 meters across could strike a city without warning, be mistaken for a nuclear weapon, and trigger an international crisis due to a misunderstanding. Asteroids one kilometer in diameter, however, are discovered with enough margin to pray, if one knows and wants to.
In the real world, there is no team of heroic drillers saving the day at the last minute. That only happens in movies. The probability of a catastrophic impact is very low, but not zero. And if it happens, there is no Plan B.
From asteroids to zombies: the prophecy mutates
The prophecy did not stop at the impact. Over time, layers were added: a military bicho tested on the population that mutates, turning the infected into zombies; volcanoes activating in sequence and filling the atmosphere with heavy metals; a second asteroid striking the Pacific and generating a tsunami that devastates all coasts. Spain, especially the south and the Mediterranean, would suffer tremendous devastation.
The tale includes practical instructions: buy a gas mask instead of a helmet, move inland to 2,500 meters above sea level, and do not open certain threads to avoid altering the course of events. The countdown, they say, is 3,448 days, 23 hours, 48 minutes, and 52 seconds. When it reaches 1,000, everyone will realize they were never deceived.
The countdown that never reaches zero
The problem with these prophecies is that they are always recycled. The Mayan calendar ended in 2012, and within a week, a new date was already on the calendar. Now it is time to wait until 2027. Some already warn that something might be advanced, or that it will be in 2022, or at the latest in 2029, as there are several stones floating around.
Meanwhile, life goes on. Those who take it segarro propose spending the budget until 2027 on whores and alcohol, though it does not last that long. Others remember that we have died several times and are still here. The most reasonable conclusion, if there is one, is the usual one: if the impact is going to happen and we can do nothing, better not to stress. And if it does not happen, even better.
Is it worth living with the countdown in your head, or is it wiser to look at the sky only when there is a reason to do so?
On August 27, 2027, asteroid (137108) 1999 AN10 will pass 388,960 kilometers from Earth, equivalent to 0.0026 astronomical units. This figure debunks the apocalyptic prophecy circulating online, which claims the object will strike the planet and cause the extinction of three-quarters of humanity. The distance is close, yes, but far from a death sentence. The asteroid's orbit is well-determined: it has been tracked in images since 1955 and accumulated 166 observations by 2006.
What the August 7, 2027, prophecy really says
The apocalyptic tale mixes Nostradamus with forum astronomy. The starting point is a quatrain attributed to the French prophet, speaking of a "great King of terror" and "resurrecting the great King of AN-Golmois" in 1999, seven months later. From there, it jumps to the asteroid's code, 1999 AN10, and fixes the impact date: August 7, 2027. The numerical coincidence between the discovery year and the object's name is, for believers, proof that nothing is accidental.
It does not end there. According to this same current, the planet has increased in size, explaining current seismic movements and a stronger Earth magnetic field in 2027. The asteroid's chemical composition would be the third reason for it being drawn toward Earth. The impact would occur at one of the poles. There is no margin for error, they say: everything is perfection.
The orbital calculation debunking the impact
The astronomical community handles different numbers. Researchers Andrea Milani, Steven R. Chesley, and Giovanni B. Valsecchi have calculated a one in ten million chance that 1999 AN10 will return on a collision course in 2039. One in ten million. To put it in perspective: it is more likely you will win the EuroMillions twice in a row than that.
The object will pass 388,960 kilometers, a distance that is a breath in astronomical terms but practically the difference between a headline and extinction. The orbit is well-determined enough to rule out the catastrophist scenario for 2027. This does not stop the asteroid from being tracked.
The real risk is not what we know, but what we do not see
Here comes the interesting twist. The most dangerous asteroids are not those we have logged, but those we do not know. An object 50 meters across could strike a city without warning, be mistaken for a nuclear weapon, and trigger an international crisis due to a misunderstanding. Asteroids one kilometer in diameter, however, are discovered with enough margin to pray, if one knows and wants to.
In the real world, there is no team of heroic drillers saving the day at the last minute. That only happens in movies. The probability of a catastrophic impact is very low, but not zero. And if it happens, there is no Plan B.
From asteroids to zombies: the prophecy mutates
The prophecy did not stop at the impact. Over time, layers were added: a military bicho tested on the population that mutates, turning the infected into zombies; volcanoes activating in sequence and filling the atmosphere with heavy metals; a second asteroid striking the Pacific and generating a tsunami that devastates all coasts. Spain, especially the south and the Mediterranean, would suffer tremendous devastation.
The tale includes practical instructions: buy a gas mask instead of a helmet, move inland to 2,500 meters above sea level, and do not open certain threads to avoid altering the course of events. The countdown, they say, is 3,448 days, 23 hours, 48 minutes, and 52 seconds. When it reaches 1,000, everyone will realize they were never deceived.
The countdown that never reaches zero
The problem with these prophecies is that they are always recycled. The Mayan calendar ended in 2012, and within a week, a new date was already on the calendar. Now it is time to wait until 2027. Some already warn that something might be advanced, or that it will be in 2022, or at the latest in 2029, as there are several stones floating around.
Meanwhile, life goes on. Those who take it segarro propose spending the budget until 2027 on whores and alcohol, though it does not last that long. Others remember that we have died several times and are still here. The most reasonable conclusion, if there is one, is the usual one: if the impact is going to happen and we can do nothing, better not to stress. And if it does not happen, even better.
Is it worth living with the countdown in your head, or is it wiser to look at the sky only when there is a reason to do so?
Summary of a discussion on Burbuja.info - Foro de economía, actualidad y política., translated from Spanish and reviewed before publication. Read the full discussion (170 replies).
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