Anonymous Portfolio Claims 139% Return After Promising 150%

Anonymous Portfolio Reports 139% Return in Four Months

Can you make 150% in the stock market in a year by copying the trades of someone you have never seen? That was the challenge. In mid-October 2014, a portfolio was published with €100,000 as a reference, six Spanish and Portuguese stocks, specific entry levels, and a quiet warning: "I am not responsible for the results." The message, with a wink, was presented as a "mythical topic" reserved for trolls. Four months later, the same portfolio claimed a 139% return. The figure is impressive. The journey to get there has more holes than the number suggests.

Which Stocks Entered the Portfolio and With How Much Capital

The initial allocation moved small amounts, and the author himself emphasized it: "we started with little capital." Sonae entered with €3,000 and a stop set at 1.5% of the previous Thursday's lows. Jerónimo Martins, with €5,000, was the largest position, coming from a previous purchase and already adding a 5% gain. Faes was announced at €1.78 with a stop at €1.70. NH, with €1,800, left the stop at €3. Zardoya and Tubos Reunidos closed the list, €1,500 each, the first with the explicit promise of "getting a 5%." No position exceeded €5,000: the €100,000 portfolio existed more in the headline than in the actual capital allocation.

Sonae's Debt, the First Sustancia ilegal

The first questioning did not come from the price, but from the balance sheet. Against the support for Jerónimo Martins—a solid, diversified company punished by its location in Portugal—the critical voice focused on Sonae's liabilities: debt of more than nine times its EBITDA, compared to 1.3 times for Jerónimo Martins. The diagnosis was short-sighted: inconsistent rebounds. The same skeptical view recalled that FCC had lost 55% of its value in the previous five years and admitted some admiration for those capable of catching rebounds of a ball falling down stairs, provided they know the risk they are taking.

From the Promise of 150% to the Reported 139%

In February 2015 came the star figure: 139% return, according to the author's own count. All his stocks were moving, he said, between 30% and 140%. Deutsche Telekom approached €17 with a cumulative 70% rise. In the chapter of errors, the exit from Apple at €120 without re-entering, with an estimated ceiling above €160. Regarding the general market, the scenario was reaching 11,700-12,000 points; losing 9,000 would break the bullish trend and send the index back toward 5,000, something he did not expect.

Expansion to European Stock Markets

The list expanded with European names: Lanxess, Michelin, Valeo, Peugeot, Bouygues, Porsche, Technip, Arkema, Veolia, Jerónimo Martins, and Thyssenkrupp. "We're going to get rich, bull market," the author summarized. Renault broke highs heading toward €85; Technip and Jerónimo Martins added another 5% each. Portugal Telecom remained five cents away from its target, with €7,000 to pocket. The narrative of success insisted: all stocks at highs and a personal vindication about the gap left by analysts who do appear on the radio. The skeptic kept looking at the same detail: a portfolio without external verification.

FCC: From Losing 55% to Buying 1,000 Shares

In March 2015 came the most discussed move: the purchase of 1,000 shares of FCC. The argument was that the cement company had activated a bottom and that, with patience, in ten years it would return to 2007 highs. "At €15 you will see it in a year maximum," it was stated. The same company that the skeptical analysis had pointed out as an example of sustained decline. The defense insisted that the chosen stocks had ended at highs and that the trinc year they would continue rising. And a phrase that summarized the method's philosophy: "the important thing is not to lose; making money is another matter."

The 40% Surge in Two Days

There were episodes that fed both versions. A stock surged 40% in two days after a "stop loss blowout," according to the account of those who trinc it: whoever entered at the open and sold the next day at 17:00 spoke of an unthinkable jackpot. Others anticipated an adverse political scenario for Spanish companies, with a hypothetical government willing to expropriate or ruin them, as a reason not to touch the domestic market. The absence of stocks like Bankia or Carbures from the list was also a source of mockery. And part of the conversation summed it up bluntly: buying without having an idea, just because an unknown person says it will go up, is the fastest and surest way to lose money.

Seven stocks, three markets, a 139%, and a list of stops that adjust as fast as they are published. Seen this way, the 150% annual almost sounds conservative. The 2007 highs, for now, are still waiting.