Alvise’s entry could break PP-Vox majority in Spain

Alvise’s general election bid threatens PP and Vox majority

What happens if Alvise Pérez moves from Brussels to a general election? The arithmetic circulating among right-wing voters is uncomfortable: with 49% of the vote for the center-right bloc, the combined total for PP and Vox would be 177 seats, only one above the absolute majority. If that 49% were split between PP and Vox without Alvise, the number rises to 185. And if all right-wing votes went to a single party, it would exceed 200. Many conclude that Alvise’s party, dubbed by some as the PSOE’s "submarine," could crush right-wing seats if he runs.

The circulating calculation: 7 seats and an insufficient 49%

An Electomania poll cited in the discussion gives Alvise 7 seats in a general election. In this scenario, the right-wing bloc would have 49% of the vote and 177 seats, just one above the absolute majority. The problem isn’t just the total number, but the provincial distribution. In provinces with 3 and 4 seats, many of which are aging and have loyal PP and PSOE voters, Vox needs more than 15% to win a seat. If Alvise takes 17% of the vote away, Vox and Alvise together barely reach 35 seats. That same 17% going solely to Vox would yield 60 seats. The conclusion is that Alvise’s party condemns Vox to having no seats outside the ten most populous provinces.

Right-wing votes do not belong to the PP

The useful vote argument is not new. Years ago, it was said that Vox divided the PP’s vote and voting for Vox played into the left’s hands. Now the argument has reversed: it’s no longer just the PP, but PP plus Vox, and Alvise is the divider. Trinc that logic, if any right-wing party were the most voted, you should always vote for that one, whether it’s the PP or not. The discussion leaves an uncomfortable question: why doesn’t the PP step aside for Vox? Some argue that if Vox and Alvise didn’t exist, they wouldn’t vote for the PP. Most who voted for Alvise would never vote for PP or Vox, and most Vox voters would never vote for the PP. If Alvise has captured a pool of votes that should have gone to the PP, it’s Alvise’s merit and the PP’s problem for not defending what its voters want.

Why are PP and Vox sinking on their own?

The discussion also points out that PP and Vox are failing due to their own mistakes. It mentions that Mariano Rajoy’s PP betrayed Spain and made clear it wasn’t right-wing when, with an absolute majority, it kept Zapatero’s policies and raised taxes. It criticizes the PP as "blue PSOE" and notes that in Brussels, it voted almost 90% of the time like the PSOE in the last five years. For the PP to succeed, it needs a leader who doesn’t try to balance the party, like Feijóo, who is seen as weak. For Vox to succeed, it would need more people like Espinosa de los Monteros and fewer like Buxadé. Meanwhile, people suffer under a psychopathic sociopath as prime minister.

The 50.78% abstention and nobody’s votes

A repeated data point is that 50.78% abstention means more than half of Spain is unrepresented. Neither red nor blue. This means the votes belong to no one and you just have to do better than Alvise. That is what democracy consists of. The discussion also mentions that Alvise’s voter has no tonalidad: people tired of the state stealing massively, of fools emptying public coffers, of Hacienda treating them as incivil prematurely, of paying for the Kalergi plan party, and of seeing the country is no longer what it was. It is a protest vote that does not identify with traditional right-wing parties.

The Andalusian precedent and antiestéticar of repeating 2018

In Andalusia, without Vox’s vote, the right would not have ousted the PSOE-A. Arenas won the elections without other right-wing parties taking his votes, but without an absolute majority, which belonged to PSOE plus IU. When Cs appeared, it summed with Susana, not with the PP. Vox had to appear in Andalusia in 2018, after 40 years of socialist government, for the orange centrist hinge to stop being politically correct crutch. The antiestéticar is that the same thing will happen now: that Alvise takes enough away so that the right ends up three seats short of the absolute majority and eats another four years of Sánchez. The discussion has no closed ending. Only a warning: if the right is at its highest in 50 years and doesn’t govern, someone will have to explain why.