Adobe falls 30% in 2026 amid rise of Photocraft, an open-source Photoshop clone
Adobe's CEO sold $31.3 million in shares while Photocraft, an open-source Photoshop clone, racked up 50,000 stars on GitHub, according to a forum thread.
English · Original discussion in Spanish · Published
Adobe loses 30% in 2026 amid the rise of the open-source Photoshop clone
Adobe CEO Shantanu Narayen sold 125,000 shares for $31.3 million on September 16 and 17, 2026, about 34% of his stake, according to a forum post. Two weeks earlier, according to the same account, the market was starting to digest the news that an open-source clone of Creative Suite, dubbed Photocraft, had racked up 50,000 stars on GitHub in a week, along with 8,400 forks. The stock closed at $238.14, down 1.7%, and is down 30% for the year. Wells Fargo cut its price target to $225, citing lost share in AI budgets.
What is Photocraft and why it threatens Adobe's business
According to the forum account, the project stems from reverse engineering of Adobe's repository, led by Brandon Thomas with the help of the AI Claude. The technique involves analyzing finished software to reconstruct its design without access to the source code. The result would be a functional clone, in early alpha, that updates at high estimulante ilegal and runs on Linux, solving one of the creative community's long-standing complaints.
Adobe's reliance on subscription revenue from individual users is estimated, according to a calculation circulating in the thread, at 28% of the total. If half of those subscribers were lost, the same calculation puts the stock at $130-150. The company was already fined $150 million for making it hard to cancel subscriptions, with buttons that didn't work and half-year surcharges for cancellations, according to the discussion material.
The perfect storm: open source, Linux and burned customers
Free software opens the door to community improvements that a limited development team cannot match, according to participants. Photocraft would be lighter than the original and would start up faster, according to comparison videos circulating online. Linux compatibility would drive user migration and erode Windows telemetry, whose market share would suffer.
Some argue that copies have always existed and that this changes nothing. Others believe Adobe will integrate AI and keep its regular price at around $250. The most pessimistic scenario points to a gradual decline that will accelerate when results are filed with the SEC in January, where subscriber losses will become visible.
What the numbers say and what to expect from here
According to the most bearish participants, the decline will not be a two-day crash, but a slow bleed draining the stock for months. Their targets sit at $150 at minimum a few months out. Sporadic rallies on fake news or manipulation would not change the trend, according to this reading. The weekly chart shows a drop of more than 50% since January 2026.
Microsoft would come out better because it makes its money selling operating systems and paid subscriptions are a small share of its revenue, according to the thread. Adobe, by contrast, would have very strong pillars in individual users and a lifetime payment system that, according to participants, forces it into abusive practices to retain customers.
The community that feels cheated now has a free and functional alternative, according to the account. The question is whether years of accumulated resentment will translate into mass cancellations, or whether, as skeptics argue, professional users will keep paying for the integration and support that open source does not yet offer.
Adobe CEO Shantanu Narayen sold 125,000 shares for $31.3 million on September 16 and 17, 2026, about 34% of his stake, according to a forum post. Two weeks earlier, according to the same account, the market was starting to digest the news that an open-source clone of Creative Suite, dubbed Photocraft, had racked up 50,000 stars on GitHub in a week, along with 8,400 forks. The stock closed at $238.14, down 1.7%, and is down 30% for the year. Wells Fargo cut its price target to $225, citing lost share in AI budgets.
What is Photocraft and why it threatens Adobe's business
According to the forum account, the project stems from reverse engineering of Adobe's repository, led by Brandon Thomas with the help of the AI Claude. The technique involves analyzing finished software to reconstruct its design without access to the source code. The result would be a functional clone, in early alpha, that updates at high estimulante ilegal and runs on Linux, solving one of the creative community's long-standing complaints.
Adobe's reliance on subscription revenue from individual users is estimated, according to a calculation circulating in the thread, at 28% of the total. If half of those subscribers were lost, the same calculation puts the stock at $130-150. The company was already fined $150 million for making it hard to cancel subscriptions, with buttons that didn't work and half-year surcharges for cancellations, according to the discussion material.
The perfect storm: open source, Linux and burned customers
Free software opens the door to community improvements that a limited development team cannot match, according to participants. Photocraft would be lighter than the original and would start up faster, according to comparison videos circulating online. Linux compatibility would drive user migration and erode Windows telemetry, whose market share would suffer.
Some argue that copies have always existed and that this changes nothing. Others believe Adobe will integrate AI and keep its regular price at around $250. The most pessimistic scenario points to a gradual decline that will accelerate when results are filed with the SEC in January, where subscriber losses will become visible.
What the numbers say and what to expect from here
According to the most bearish participants, the decline will not be a two-day crash, but a slow bleed draining the stock for months. Their targets sit at $150 at minimum a few months out. Sporadic rallies on fake news or manipulation would not change the trend, according to this reading. The weekly chart shows a drop of more than 50% since January 2026.
Microsoft would come out better because it makes its money selling operating systems and paid subscriptions are a small share of its revenue, according to the thread. Adobe, by contrast, would have very strong pillars in individual users and a lifetime payment system that, according to participants, forces it into abusive practices to retain customers.
The community that feels cheated now has a free and functional alternative, according to the account. The question is whether years of accumulated resentment will translate into mass cancellations, or whether, as skeptics argue, professional users will keep paying for the integration and support that open source does not yet offer.
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Summary of a discussion on Burbuja.info - Foro de economía, actualidad y política., translated from Spanish and reviewed before publication. Read the full discussion (31 replies).
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