90% of New Coders Will Fail to Find Jobs

"90% of New Programmers Won't Find Work"

The assertion is blunt and comes from a participant who claims to know the sector from the inside: once the current wave of programming students finishes, whether at university or in bootcamps, nine out of ten will not find employment. The thesis, repeated insistently on an investor forum, argues that the supposed shortage of developers was a big lie sustained for years by schools, consultancies, and media. The central argument isn't technical; it's market-based. Mass layoffs, offshoring to India, and the saturation of graduates have broken a balance that, according to these forum users, will never return.

The Developer Shortage That Never Existed

The official narrative during the past decade was that engineers were lacking. Companies complained about unfilled vacancies, bootcamps promised €30,000 salaries within six months, and universities expanded capacity. According to those who have closely trinc the market, this narrative was a collective marketing operation to lower labor costs. The evidence cited is the current reality: hundreds of applications, months of searching, and few responses.

There is a case that repeats with clockwork precision. A developer with over ten years of full-stack experience, C1 English, AWS certification, and a master's degree stopped looking after six months of unemployment. Interviews in English were perfect, technical requirements were met, but as soon as he mentioned a minimum salary of €50,000, the company disappeared. Pure ghosting. Even when submitting technical tests that took him an entire week. He ended up signing up for civil service exams (oposiciones).

Why Aren't Companies Hiring Junior Developers?

The short answer: because they can hire others more cheaply. The long answer includes offshoring, oversupply of graduates, and a perfect excuse called artificial intelligence. The most repeated analysis argues that companies use AI as a technical pretext to justify decisions that are purely financial. Layoffs reduce costs, and reducing costs boosts stock prices. It's stock market math, not engineering.

Offshoring has geographic names and surnames. Between 2018 and 2023, the cities that grew most in software engineer hiring were Bangalore, Hyderabad, and Pune. This isn't an opinion; it's the pattern described by those who track hiring data. A French-capital electric utility moved its entire R&D department to India. The phenomenon isn't exclusive to software.

The result in Spain is a fractured market. Some argue that consultancies hire any profile without experience and train them in four months. Others respond that this no longer happens: that recruiters now demand frameworks, AI agents, hooks, and models, paying net €1,200-€1,400. The junior who used to be worth €24,000 now competes with one asking for €18,000. And with one in Bangalore asking for €8,000.

The Salary Ceiling Has Also Broken

It's not just about juniors. Senior profiles are also seeing their margins narrow. A developer with 10-15 years of experience lost his job a year ago, confident he would find work instantly. A year later, what he is offered is far below what he earned. He doesn't accept it. Someone else does. Replacement salary is the new market salary.

According to one participant, the phenomenon extends to STEM profiles with PhDs. Physicists, mathematicians, and engineers with experience accepting technical positions in the private sector for gross €20,000-€24,000 in Barcelona. Some take civil service exams. Others emigrate. A chemical engineer gives thanks because her partner has stable work allowing her to keep searching. The recurring diagnosis: the market for scientists and technicians in the West is broken, and AI is the excuse, not the cause.

The Escape Route: Civil Service, Healthcare Vocational Training, or Switzerland

The most common individual response in the conversation isn't technical, it's strategic. People who have been in total savings mode for two years to prepare for civil service exams (oposiciones) or do healthcare vocational training (FP). A developer with over a decade of experience stopped looking after six months and applied for the 2024 civil service exams. He hopes to have enough points. The exit isn't code, it's a permanent position.

There is an exception that confirms the rule: Switzerland. A physicist with three years of experience and an AI master's degree in Madrid earns, according to a forum user, CHF 140,000 annually in Zurich as a Cloud Architect. With ten years of experience, the figure handled is CHF 180,000-190,000. The differential with Spain isn't 20% or 30%. It's a multiple. Those who can leave, do. Those who can't, take exams.

The Real Business: Selling the Dream

If jobs have dried up, why do bootcamps keep opening? The most cynical answer in the debate: the business isn't placing programmers, it's charging them tuition fees. Private centers charging €3,000-€4,000 for vocational training that guarantees neither internships nor jobs. Academies promising €30,000 salaries and delivering certificates nobody looks at. Training has become the product, not the means.

The pattern repeats in other disciplines. X-ray technicians waiting two years for promised internships. Career counselors recommending GitHub portfolios as a substitute for an official degree. The advice repeated most insistently by those who have already gone through the process: if you want to program, learn before enrolling. If you can't do it on your own, a bootcamp won't fix it.

---

The prediction repeated most frequently isn't optimistic. The sector won't recover the previous balance because, according to these forum users, the previous balance was artificial. AI accelerates, offshoring continues, and the oversupply of graduates takes years to correct. Anyone twenty years old thinking about enrolling in a bootcamp should know this: the market they will find upon finishing won't resemble the one they were promised. Although no one knows exactly how long it will take to hit bottom.