74% of Swedish women voting left confuses declared support with actual vote
The 74% figure regarding Swedish women voting left mixes declared support with cast votes and is based on young women, not the entire electorate.
English · Original discussion in Spanish · Published
74% of Swedish women voting left mixes support with actual vote
The 74% figure regarding Swedish women did not actually vote left. The number circulating these days mixes two things that are incomparable: the declared support of a subgroup—the youngest voters—with the real electoral outcome of the female electorate. Support and voting are not synonyms, and a measurement restricted by age does not equate to a national survey.
The data entered the conversation through a social media post and an image of unknown origin. From there, the figure was repeated without anyone verifying where it came from. That detail ruins any debate: the headline speaks of votes when the original work discussed support.
How many Swedish women actually vote left
The figures that are cited place female support for the left around 55%, far from the 74% in the headline and measured on a specific segment: young women, not all.
The number changes depending on age group, whether it is intention or memory of the vote, and which parties are included in the 'left' category. The complete breakdown, party by party and cohort by cohort, presents a much narrower range than the headline suggests.
Declared support is not cast vote
A survey asks what one would or remembers voting. An election count tallies ballots. Between the two lies differential abstention, hidden vote, and sample correction. Some maintain that the gender gap in voting is real and growing; against this, it is argued that the specific data that went viral does not withstand basic scrutiny.
Alongside the measurement error, a conspiratorial reading about the origin of that vote also circulated, without any evidence to support it.
From Indalecio Prieto to today's 74%
The historical curiosity: in 1931, Indalecio Prieto's PSOE opposed female suffrage, arguing that women would vote as dictated by the pulpit. Remembering this throws many into thought. Almost a century later, that same female vote is used as a weapon in the opposite direction, with the same argumentative lightness.
If the electoral gender gap continues to widen, the substance of the matter will continue to provide ammunition for both sides. The star figure, however, does not withstand the first check. It is advisable to know this before repeating it.
The 74% figure regarding Swedish women did not actually vote left. The number circulating these days mixes two things that are incomparable: the declared support of a subgroup—the youngest voters—with the real electoral outcome of the female electorate. Support and voting are not synonyms, and a measurement restricted by age does not equate to a national survey.
The data entered the conversation through a social media post and an image of unknown origin. From there, the figure was repeated without anyone verifying where it came from. That detail ruins any debate: the headline speaks of votes when the original work discussed support.
How many Swedish women actually vote left
The figures that are cited place female support for the left around 55%, far from the 74% in the headline and measured on a specific segment: young women, not all.
The number changes depending on age group, whether it is intention or memory of the vote, and which parties are included in the 'left' category. The complete breakdown, party by party and cohort by cohort, presents a much narrower range than the headline suggests.
Declared support is not cast vote
A survey asks what one would or remembers voting. An election count tallies ballots. Between the two lies differential abstention, hidden vote, and sample correction. Some maintain that the gender gap in voting is real and growing; against this, it is argued that the specific data that went viral does not withstand basic scrutiny.
Alongside the measurement error, a conspiratorial reading about the origin of that vote also circulated, without any evidence to support it.
From Indalecio Prieto to today's 74%
The historical curiosity: in 1931, Indalecio Prieto's PSOE opposed female suffrage, arguing that women would vote as dictated by the pulpit. Remembering this throws many into thought. Almost a century later, that same female vote is used as a weapon in the opposite direction, with the same argumentative lightness.
If the electoral gender gap continues to widen, the substance of the matter will continue to provide ammunition for both sides. The star figure, however, does not withstand the first check. It is advisable to know this before repeating it.
Summary of a discussion on Burbuja.info - Foro de economía, actualidad y política., translated from Spanish and reviewed before publication. Read the full discussion (24 replies).
More summaries
-
And They Call This Governing (Ignacio Camacho, ABC)
An ABC column criticizes the government for tackling housing with two decrees without guaranteed parliamentary approval and at the cost of reducing supply.
-
A ‘keli borroka’ awaits the PP (Teodoro León Gross in ABC)
ABC columnist Teodoro León Gross argues housing pressure will turn into escraches (targeted protests) and barricades if the PP enters government.
-
A democratic obligation unfulfilled (ABC editorial)
Article 134.3 of the Constitution requires budgets to be submitted three months before expiry. Spain is still running on the 2023 Budget.
-
Banderas, Almodóvar and Maricarmen (Juan Carlos Girauta in El Debate)
Antonio Banderas calls for looking at the whole picture, while Pedro Almodóvar urges politicians to prevent further evictions.
-
The USSR and the Origins of Borregocracia: Thesis and Suspicions
Soviet infiltration, free lawyers, Gramsci and academic inbreeding: the thesis that traces today's groupthink to the USSR.
-
Abascal claims a Spaniard cannot be racist
Abascal claims 'a Spaniard cannot be racist', and his own voters answer with unemployment, demographics and accusations of betrayal