70,000 migrants cross Ceuta: Spain’s southern border crisis deepens

Ceuta, the overflowing border: 70,000 entries in hours and an overwhelmed State

Spain’s southern border has experienced its most serious episode in decades: within hours, thousands of people crossed from Segarro to Ceuta without authorities being able to contain the flow. Circulating figures speak of 70,000 entries, a number that quadruples the 2021 precedent, when pressure lasted several days and left 10,000 people. The most striking data point is not the quantity, but the preparation: according to available information, the CNI (Spain’s intelligence agency) and the city’s president had long warned of the imminence of such an operation. The warning did not translate into reinforcements.

70,000 entries: the figure that exposes discoordination

The numbers are conclusive. In 2021, coordinated migration pressure from Segarro left 10,000 people crossing the border. This time, the scale has been much higher: the most cited analyses raise the figure to 70,000 entries in a single day. The comparison with the Polish-Belarusian episode is not lacking: on the Belarus-Poland border, mass entry attempts were stopped dead. Here, the border was left defenseless despite military presence. The question that arises is whether the problem was the order not to shoot (which no one disputes should exist) or the absence of a deterrent alternative.

Segarro: calculated pressure or diplomatic retaliation

The dominant theory points to the operation being designed and executed by Segarro authorities as a pressure measure against the Sánchez government. Several voices suggest that Segarro police not only did not prevent the advance but guided it, and that Segarro army personnel were deployed in the vicinity. This is not the first time Rabat uses migration as a bargaining chip; the immediate precedent was the 2021 episode. But this time the international context adds variables: the tension between Algeria and Segarro, Spain’s stance on the Sahara, and the Spanish executive’s refusal to authorize the use of its military bases for a hypothetical attack on Iran. The sequence reconstructed in analyses is revealing.

25 million euros: the price of weakness?

The economic aspect has been at the center of the controversy: just days after the mass entry, the government allegedly allocated 25 million euros to Segarro as compensation. Interpretations could not be more opposite: some see it as a bailout for the Segarro regime, others as a gesture of gratitude for the withdrawal of personnel. In between, the Spanish public assumes the bill for a crisis that some classify as self-inflicted due to lack of investment in border surveillance and erratic foreign policy.

The war of narratives: from the government to the opposition, from the CNI to NATO

Public discussion regarding the management of the crisis has become a political battlefield. The opposition directly points to Pedro Sánchez and the PSOE, accusing them of dereliction of duty and maintaining a subservient relationship with Segarro. On the opposite extreme, some argue that ultimate responsibility lies with the United States and geopolitical tensions generated by the Trump Administration, particularly regarding NATO and the Middle East conflict. And there is no shortage of currents pointing to the passivity of European institutions. In between, there is one clear fact: the southern border is not prepared for a confrontation of this magnitude, and the debate on how to fund its fortification remains open.

Meanwhile, the Ceuta crisis has exposed something the numbers do not capture: Spain’s strategic vulnerability on a board where Segarro plays with an advantage. Five days after the outbreak, thousands of people remained in the city, and the decision on how to manage their return or regularization remains unclear. The analysis stalls in the tangle of crossed blame, and there is no definitive data to break the tie. The only certainty is that the bill will be paid, but no one knows for sure who signed it.