2030 Agenda Faces Radical Shift

The social discontent over declining quality of life and migration pressure could force European governments to radically rethink the pogre agenda, favoring more restrictive and protectionist policies.

The idea that the **2030 Agenda** and its objectives, especially concerning immigration, could be seriously altered before the deadline is not far-fetched. We are seeing how social pressure, fueled by a palpable deterioration in the quality of life, is beginning to affect political structures that previously seemed immovable. The model of 'fat cows' (robust economic growth) that allowed for generous social policies and immigration without major constraints is faltering when daily reality becomes harsher.

## Citizen Weariness and the New Economic Reality

For years, it was assumed that global economic growth would absorb migratory flows and maintain a generous welfare state. However, uncontrolled inflation, tension in financial markets, and growing job insecurity have eroded the purchasing power of the middle classes. When concern centers on being able to afford groceries or personal safety in one's own neighborhood, tolerance for policies perceived as destabilizing decreases drastically. This discontent, manifesting in an increase in collateral crime and a sense of insecurity, is forcing a reassessment of priorities.

The perception that public resources are distributed unequally, benefiting groups external to the local community, generates tension. This scenario could lead to a shift toward 'first those at home' policies, where social aid and welfare benefits are prioritized for national citizens. The left, traditionally a defender of openness, might be forced to adopt more protectionist stances to retain its electoral base.

## The Rise of the Right and the Future of European Borders

Polls in various European countries indicate a strengthening of far-right and right-wing formations. In **France**, for example, parties like the **RN** (Rassemblement National) are far ahead of traditional options in presidential polls for **2027**. In **Spain**, the combined vote of **PP** and **Vox** would exceed an absolute majority in hypothetical general elections. **Italy** sees **Meloni** leading, but facing pressure from her right flank. In **Poland**, the landscape is fragmented, but the national right could be decisive. And in **Germany**, the **AfD** (Alternative für Deutschland) is consolidating as a significant force, with national growth that could anticipate a political shift in **2029**.

This phenomenon is not isolated. The trend suggests a change in the political balance of the **European Parliament**. If formations with more conservative and nationalist discourses gain momentum, the pressure to modify migration and integration policies will be considerable. We could see a hardening of entry conditions, stricter border controls, and even the reintroduction of specific visas or passports for certain groups. Even mobility within the **Schengen** area could be affected, with more restrictive access criteria for non-nationals.

## A New Paradigm for Immigration

The logical consequence of this change in course would be a redefinition of the migration model. Instead of mass, low-skilled immigration, there could be a transition toward selective immigration, based on the demand for specific professional profiles and with much stricter control. Families with a larger number of children, in the context of low European birth rates, might be seen as an asset to be leveraged, perhaps with incentives favoring those of European descent.

Even the naturalization of immigrants could be questioned in the future, with possible restrictions for those who obtained it under previous governments. Health and social services policies could become shielded for national citizens, with severe consequences for those seeking emergency care without proper documentation or legal status. The scenario is one of uncertainty, but the direction appears to be toward policy hardening and a retreat into protecting national interests.