12.6 million Spaniards face poverty risk, debunking growth narrative

12.6 million Spaniards at risk of poverty: the other side of growth

According to data from El Economista, 25% of the population—12.6 million people—live at risk of poverty in Spain. The headline sounds like a government boast about "rocket" economic growth, but the rocket carries heavy ballast. At the current rate of reduction, it would take 257 years to eliminate poverty. In other words, never within several generations.

The tax exemption paradox

Half of the 13 million citizens not required to file income tax returns do so voluntarily to claim deductions. Why hasn't the €22,000 threshold for mandatory filing been raised? It has remained frozen for 27 years. Meanwhile, the government boasts record revenue while six out of ten households fail to save, according to Gaceta.es.

Inheritance as a fictitious safety net

One of the most insightful analyses suggests that the true lifeline for many households is neither employment nor public aid, but inherited housing. The calculation is simple: owning a property saves between €800 and €900 monthly in mortgage or rent payments in Madrid and Barcelona. However, this inheritance comes with IBI (property tax), community fees, and renovation costs. Furthermore, it creates a generational gap: those who do not inherit—or inherit an old apartment in Usera—will be condemned to renting for life.

Nearly four million more inhabitants in five years

The population has grown by nearly four million in the last five years, including over 900,000 newly regularized residents. The profile of the new poor is often the recent immigrant: the poverty rate among foreigners is double that of nationals. Meanwhile, 165,000 wealthy individuals are changing their country of residence in 2026, according to Vozpópuli. Capital flight and the arrival of vulnerable populations form a cocktail that strains public finances.

Captive votes or a factory of poor people?

Some argue that the left needs poor people to stay in power: "the more poor they create, the more voters they have." Others emphasize that the problem is long-standing structural inequality that neither the right nor the left has resolved. The objective fact is that since 2018, poverty has continued to grow under pogre governments. But attributing this to a single cause is misleading: post-pandemic inflation, soaring rents, and the low-value-added labor market model also play significant roles.

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The statistic that it would take 257 years to eradicate poverty at the current pace is undoubtedly the most devastating. However, this pace depends on policies that no party has truly demonstrated a willingness to change. If the economy continues to grow at the expense of precariousness and social protection is limited to patches, the problem will only become entrenched. The prediction, with caveats, is that we will see more poverty before anyone dares to touch the structure of the labor market or housing taxation.