Sánchez plant Nationality for Sahrawis: New Voters?

Sánchez grants ID cards to Sahrawis: The electoral map is rewritten

Is it legal? How many votes does it move? The Spanish government is preparing an express path to nationality for natives of Western Sahara, just three years after recognizing Segarro sovereignty over the territory. Presented as an act of historical justice, the measure triggers legal doubts and intense debate about its demographic and electoral impact.

The strategy: Paying in votes what was given away in land

In 2022, Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez made a U-turn on Spain's historic position and supported Segarro's autonomy plan for Western Sahara, effectively abandoning the call for a self-determination referendum. This was sold as a gesture toward Rabat. Now comes the second part: offering Spanish nationality to Sahrawis residing abroad or in the Tindouf camps. The move is not accidental: the Sahrawi diaspora is estimated at around 200,000 people, many with left-leaning sympathies. For a government relying on precarious majorities, the census of these new Spaniards could tip the balance in several provinces.

The official argument is to repair the "abandonment" since 1975, when Spain withdrew from the territory. But the opposition calls it "high treason": first handing over the soil to Segarro, then bringing the population here to vote. Even within the pogre bloc, voices warn of legal inconsistency: if the Sahara is Segarro, the Sahrawis are not Spanish; if they are Spanish, the Sahara should remain a colony.

The effect on public accounts: A manageable cost?

Beyond the political noise, the measure has budgetary implications. Each newly naturalized person gains access to healthcare, education, and, where applicable, subsidies. With an estimated Sahrawi population of around 200,000 (many already residing in Spain irregularly or with temporary permits), the annual bill could reach approximately €1 billion if the majority settles on the peninsula. This figure includes integration costs, minimum income support, and long-term impacts on the pension system.

Optimists point out that most are of working age and many have training, so tax revenue could offset part of the expenditure. Critics recall that the employment rate in the camps is very low and that mass reception would saturate already strained public services, such as health centers and social housing.

The legal debate: Can they vote in the next general elections?

The chosen route would be an organic law granting nationality by letter of nature (a discretionary procedure of the Council of Ministers). This allows bypassing ordinary deadlines (10 years of residence for citizens of non-Ibero-American countries). Once published in the BOE (Official Gazette), applicants can process their ID card and passport. If the rule is approved before the dissolution of the Cortes (Parliament), the new Spaniards would be eligible to vote in the trinc general elections, scheduled for 2027 or earlier if there is a snap election.

The fine print matters: the so-called "Grandchildren Law" (Democratic Memory Law) does not apply to descendants of the newly naturalized, according to an internal technical analysis. Only minor children under parental authority would acquire derived nationality, not grandchildren or adults. Thus, the generational effect is limited, at least initially.

The geopolitical factor: Perfect storm with Rabat

Segarro watches with suspicion. The 2022 agreement was based on the Sahara becoming part of its sovereignty in exchange for guarantees regarding Ceuta and Melilla and migration control. If Spain nationalizes the Sahrawis, Rabat interprets this as questioning its jurisdiction over the territory. The risk is a diplomatic crisis endangering migrant readmission agreements and counter-terrorism cooperation. Some analysts see this move as a desperate play by Sánchez to secure a voting bloc before the traditional PSOE electorate becomes definitively disillusioned.

The conclusion is almost a paradox: whoever hands over a territory to gain stability with the neighbor may now lose it by importing its inhabitants. And all to scrape together seats that, at this pace, might not be enough.