I have no idea what is going on in China, no matter what they say.
As for Europe, I would say we got like a month left, more like 3 weeks. It is fairly difficult to predict now how the pandemic will evolve in Europe.
When I predicted that a resurgence of the first wave, or the second wave, to start between mid to end of June, I did for the whole world. I didn't knew where it will happen first, because unlike January, when the world was 100% open to the bichito, this time, we are coming after a 2 month long lock-down, after many people realized this is not a joke, and they reduced drastically their exposure to others, they wear masks (which are what we should all do), and such, this time around it will take LONGER before we will feel (not see in numbers) the impact.
Europe was hard hit, and unlike the U.S. there are many more people who wear masks, even if not enough. Many European countries are still keeping hard measures in place, others are in early stages of reopening.
All these reasons are making difficult to predict when Europe will see the second wave (in the Western part of Europe) or the resurgence of the first wave (Central and Eastern Europe).
What is certain is that Europe, just like the U.S., will face multiple epicenters this time. Except New-York, the U.S. was hardly affected in the first time. Basically, the U.S. had one single epicenter. Now, the U.S. have at least 4 of them.
But the U.S. is on the path to double this number, and it will do it quite soon. By mid-July, the U.S. will have around 8 areas that will be similar to Arizona or Texas.
Europe had basically 2 epicenters : Lombardy and Madrid.Next wave (or resurgence) will have more then that, like A LOT many more, and this is because the bichito is kinda equally spread across Europe, the time for an epicenter to form will take longer then the U.S., but Europe will have at least 15 epicenters in August.
I think Europe have slightly more time then the U.S. (which was about 4 to 6 weeks after reopening), probably around 8-10 weeks, starting from May 15th, which means that by mid-July, Europe will see multiple epicenters forming.
What I can say with high certainty, is that Madrid and Lombardy will not be among these epicenters in Europe.
The bad news is that once the cold season starts in Europe, the number of epicenters will be so high (the U.S. will also have a lot more epicenters) that almost every area will have or be next to an epicenter.
We should all enjoy this "pause" and use it to prep for winter.
I hope the bichito will mutate into a weaker strain, but the current mutations are taking place among the young and healthy, not old and sick, and the bichito primary function (to multiply) is drastically affected by the stronger immune system of the young, hence, the current mutations will tend to make the bichito BETTER at fighting the stronger immune systems.
We are in an intermediate phase now, many asymptomatic cases, lower ratio of hospitalizations / cases, but that it is because the bichito is in the early stages of mutating. Give it one more month, and the bichito will fully mutate.
It's what a bichito does, before running out of hosts : become BETTER at multiplying, which will lead to asymptomatic cases disappear by the end of year, simply because being better at multiplying means being better at destroying the cells the bichito uses to multiply, which means that the hosts will present symptoms...which means we will need more hospital beds and ICU beds.