Snowball
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- 8 Sep 2007
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Current 'figures':
China: 44,653 Total Cases / 8,204 Serious Cases = 5.44
Or 1 in every 5.44 cases is a serious case.
Internationally: 441 Total Cases / 16 Serious Cases = 27.56
Or 1 in every 27.56 cases is a serious case.
We're talking about the same disease affecting both cohorts here? ... right?
So from this we can see that if the disease is the same in both cohorts, then:
There must be 27.56 / 5.44 = 5.07 times as many 'total cases' within China.
So all you need to do to derive the actual number of cases in China is to multiple the official published "total cases", by 5.07, which gives you this:
China: 44,653 'Total' Cases * 5.07 = 226,391 actual cases of nCov19 within China today.
Thus china must be just over 1/4 of a million cases right now.
Being a cheeky **** I then multiplied all the daily total case numbers by 5.07 to get the correct number of total cases each day (as shown below). Then I curve-fitted that to determine the implied exponential geometric ratio.
Which ratio is multiplying case numbers by 1.103 per day
Date Ratio Cases Cases x 5.07 Obs Cases ∆ Cases
3-Feb-20 1.103 20,673 104,812 20,673 -
4-Feb-20 1.103 22,802 115,608 24,567 3,894
5-Feb-20 1.103 25,151 127,515 28,394 3,827
6-Feb-20 1.103 27,742 140,649 31,532 3,138
7-Feb-20 1.103 30,599 155,136 34,914 3,382
8-Feb-20 1.103 33,751 171,115 37,567 2,653
9-Feb-20 1.103 37,227 188,740 40,625 3,058
10-Feb-20 1.103 41,061 208,181 43,102 2,477
11-Feb-20 1.103 45,291 229,623 45,171 2,069
If the two cohorts respond the same way to the bichito, this requires that the correct number of Chinese total cases today would be ~229,623 people.
China: 44,653 Total Cases / 8,204 Serious Cases = 5.44
Or 1 in every 5.44 cases is a serious case.
Internationally: 441 Total Cases / 16 Serious Cases = 27.56
Or 1 in every 27.56 cases is a serious case.
We're talking about the same disease affecting both cohorts here? ... right?
So from this we can see that if the disease is the same in both cohorts, then:
There must be 27.56 / 5.44 = 5.07 times as many 'total cases' within China.
So all you need to do to derive the actual number of cases in China is to multiple the official published "total cases", by 5.07, which gives you this:
China: 44,653 'Total' Cases * 5.07 = 226,391 actual cases of nCov19 within China today.
Thus china must be just over 1/4 of a million cases right now.
Being a cheeky **** I then multiplied all the daily total case numbers by 5.07 to get the correct number of total cases each day (as shown below). Then I curve-fitted that to determine the implied exponential geometric ratio.
Which ratio is multiplying case numbers by 1.103 per day
Date Ratio Cases Cases x 5.07 Obs Cases ∆ Cases
3-Feb-20 1.103 20,673 104,812 20,673 -
4-Feb-20 1.103 22,802 115,608 24,567 3,894
5-Feb-20 1.103 25,151 127,515 28,394 3,827
6-Feb-20 1.103 27,742 140,649 31,532 3,138
7-Feb-20 1.103 30,599 155,136 34,914 3,382
8-Feb-20 1.103 33,751 171,115 37,567 2,653
9-Feb-20 1.103 37,227 188,740 40,625 3,058
10-Feb-20 1.103 41,061 208,181 43,102 2,477
11-Feb-20 1.103 45,291 229,623 45,171 2,069
If the two cohorts respond the same way to the bichito, this requires that the correct number of Chinese total cases today would be ~229,623 people.