Bueno estoy reventado de haber comido chocolate que me trajo mi hermana de Suiza (menudo precio que tiene el cigot de chez Tristan (Tristan Chocolatier Suisse à Perroy - Canton de Vaud) 140 frs es decir 125 euros un cigot de chocolate. Pero es una delicia extrema para el paladar.
Bueno algunas noticias de Europa
The Eurozone Slowdown Is Worse Than The Global One
One of the most repeated messages among European financial analysts this week is this:
“we are in a global slowdown”.
However,
the sentence hides important nuances and very relevant differences. The European Union suffers a severe slowdown. The rest of the world only a moderate reduction in the pace of growth.
Data from the United States tell us something very different from what we get from the Eurozone.
Retail sales rose 1.6% in March in the US and the implied annualized growth rate for the first quarter remains above 2.1%. If we look at the employment data, the United States only sees a slight moderation in employment growth … But we are talking about the creation of 196,000 jobs, a figure that indicates much better growth. than other similar economies. The same applies to the latest manufacturing and service indices: They remain above 50 (in expansion). The Markit service index was 56.3 compared with an expectation of 54.8 and the compound showed a figure of 54.6 compared to the previous 54.3.
The economic surprise index of emerging markets also indicates an improvement. A strong but stable dollar (DXY Index) has not damaged the macroeconomic figures of the main emerging economies. It is true that the “usual suspects”, Argentina and Turkey, have seen their currencies plummet against the dollar, as they continue to implement counterproductive monetary policies of financing public spending with direct printing of currency. However, the macro data of most emerging countries as a whole is better than expected, and that must be acknowledged. Brazil was the latest to show a marked improvement in the Economic Activity Index in February. The prices of commodities have helped, but that tailwind is not the main driver. We cannot be complacent, but the recent capital outflows seen in March are modest compared to the inflows into February.
China has shown slightly better data in the recent manufacturing index as well. Their huge imbalances remain, and we should not indulge in complacency or optimism, as the Asian giant shows macroeconomic indicators improving within a long-term trend that has been signaling a clear deceleration since 2016. We must remain concerned about China’s indebted model, but it is still a trend of relatively weaker growth, not of stagnation.
So, where is there evidence of stagnation? In Europe and Japan.
Japan’s manufacturing PMI came at 49.5 and Output at 47.9. Both in 3rd-month of contraction.
The Japanese slowdown does not surprise anyone anymore, because it is in its third decade of stagnation repeating the same mistakes of disguising the demographic and productive model challenges with misguided Keynesian government spending policies and more debt.
The most concerning problem is Europe. A European Union that completely abandoned its reform agenda to bet it all on the mirage of monetary policy, while economic, demographic, state and political risks rise. The data from Germany remains poor, but the country enjoys enviable unemployment, trade balance and fiscal strength. However, in the rest of the Eurozone, the fragility of the economies is linked to both fiscal imbalances and excessive interventionism that make them more vulnerable to a change in the cycle. At least in France, from where I write this article, the debate on television and media is constant. The entire country is aware that the slowdown is severe and tax reductions and measures to strengthen economic performance are announced. The word “crisis” appears on the front page of newspapers and economic programs as a real possibility. In the periphery, countries must be aware that they have exhausted their fiscal space and acknowledge their vulnerability to a modest change of cycle. Spain is not immune to these risks. The OECD index of leading indicators already shows a negative figure and the leading indicators published by the Ministry of Economy also reflect more than ten in negative territory. That’s why the Eurozone should be more prepared. Because most countries do not have the capacity that others have to confront a slowdown.
The United States or the United Kingdom have buffers to face a slowdown. Most Eurozone countries are dangerously ignoring it and, even worse, proposing large government spending and high taxes as the “solution”.
All of you have read that the slowdown was due to temporary factors. It is not. The fall in the flash Composite PMI, from 51.6 in March to 51.3 in April was worse than the consensus estimate of 51.8.
Some demand a massive stimulus from Germany to address the problems of the Eurozone. Making the same mistakes as other countries is not a growth policy, it is a suicide action. It would not work. There is no evidence that Germany is importing less than it needs, quite the opposite. Its industrial utilization has risen from 71% in 2009 to 86% today. Meanwhile, private investment is at pre-crisis highs. We cannot ask Germany to make the mistakes of others to disguise the imbalances of its Eurozone partners.
(imagen visible para usuarios registrados)
The problem of the Eurozone is threefold: demographic, high state- and fiscal-interventionism, and lack of technological leadership.
If we add the political risk of some governments who want to penalize high productivity sectors while subsidizing those of low productivity, we have an economic challenge that will not be solved with liquidity injections and low rates.
With rates at zero and almost 1.8 trillion euros of excessive liquidity, the problem of the European Union is not the moderate global slowdown.
It is perpetuating a rigid, intervened and extractive model.
The Eurozone Slowdown Is Worse Than The Global One
En Estados Unidos cada yanki debe 700 000 dolares para evitar la explosion de la burbuja de la deuda.
Distressed Nation: Each American Would Owe $700,000 To Eliminate Worsening Debt Situation
Truth In Accounting (TIA), a 501(c)(3) - focused on government financial information, published a new report that suggests the federal government's overall financial conditions worsened by $4.5 trillion in 2018. The report also calculates the actual national debt on a per taxpayer basis.
(imagen visible para usuarios registrados)
With assets of $3.84 trillion, the federal government’s unfunded obligations and debt total $108.94 trillion, which contributed to a $105 trillion debt burden.
"Our elected officials have made repeated financial decisions that have left the federal government with a debt burden of $105 trillion, including unfunded Social Security and Medicare promises. That equates to a $696,000 burden for every federal taxpayer," TIA states.
TIA rated the federal federal government with an "F" for its financial outlook and worsening fiscal situation that could trigger a crisis in the not too distant future.
(imagen visible para usuarios registrados)
TIA explains that while the $779 billion national deficit is troubling, it doesn’t reflect the true financial situation.
"The overall decline in Net Position presents a better picture of the government’s financial decline," the report states.
"The federal government's financial position continued to deteriorate – and much faster than indicated by the government's own ‘bottom-line,’" TIA’s Director of Research, Bill Bergman, said.
TIA pulled data from the "Financial Report of the U.S. Government" for the fiscal year ending Sept. 2018.
TIA's "bottom line" measures the government's unfunded debt, jumped by $4 trillion in 2018, about 4 times faster than the budget deficit or net operating cost.
(imagen visible para usuarios registrados)
Interest expenses on the national debt have been one of the fastest growing expenses, "while the government's estimate of the fiscal gap - the amount of spending cuts and/or tax increases necessary to keep the debt/Gross Domestic Product ratio from rising in the future – doubled," TIA reports.
"Perhaps the most alarming antiestéticature of the government's release of its annual financial report was the public reaction: deafening silence; zero coverage in the mainstream media," Bergman added.
TIA said the $1.5 trillion in students loans was the fastest growing asset on the federal balance sheet.
Bergman said that the Treasury Department doesn't include unfunded Social Security and Medicare liabilities on the federal balance sheet, these debts are included in TIA’s report.
The federal government’s assets stand at $3.84 trillion, TIA notes. Income is derived from corporate taxes (6%), excise, estate, gift taxes and other revenue (11.5%), and individual income tax and withholding taxes (82.5%).
The combined unfunded liabilities of the federal government is $108.94 trillion. The government owes $34.80 trillion in Social Security benefits, $48.79 in Medicare benefits, $7.89 trillion in military benefits, $15.81 trillion in publicly held debt, and $1.56 trillion in other liabilities.
(imagen visible para usuarios registrados)
The financial hole for unfunded liabilities is accelerating to levels that now threaten the long-term survivability of this country. TIA provides unsettling estimates that show each American would have to fork over $700,000 each to completely pay off the existing debt.
So an important question we ask: Will Trump keep his campaign promise of
eliminating the national debt in eight years?
Distressed Nation: Each American Would Owe $700,000 To Eliminate Worsening Debt Situation
Si alguien ve otra salida de está situación y que no sea la 3 guerra mundial fisica que me lo diga gracias (no creo que la población se vaya a rebelar contra su gobierno al menos que haya una gran hambruna o una hyperinflación)