Seguimiento del brote de Ébola

species8472 · 2014-08-31T16:20:47+0200

Datos actualizados para 26 Agosto 2014

En menos de una semana han detectado unos 300 casos en Liberia y otros 100 en Sierra Leona donde no parece contenerse de ningún modo el contagio. En Guinea solo se han dado unos 30 y la mejor parte pertenece a Nigeria donde parece relativamente controlado.
Falta por añadir el único caso registrado en Senegal, que aun no se encuentra en las actualizaciones de la OMS.

Código:

<body>
<table border = 1><tr></tr>
<th rowspan="2"></th>
<th rowspan="2">Actualización</th>
<th colspan="2">Total</th>
<th colspan="2">Guinea</th>
<th colspan="2">Liberia</th>
<th colspan="2">Sierra Leone</th>
<th colspan="2">Nigeria</th>
</tr>
<tr>
<th>casos</th>
<th>muertes</th>
<th>casos</th>
<th>muertes</th>
<th>casos</th>
<th>muertes</th>
<th>casos</th>
<th>muertes</th>
<th>casos</th>
<th>muertes</th>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>157</td>
<td>26 Ago 2014</td>
<td>3069</td>
<td>1552</td>
<td>648</td>
<td>403</td>
<td>1378</td>
<td>694</td>
<td>1026</td>
<td>422</td>
<td>17</td>
<td>4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>153</td>
<td>20 Ago 2014</td>
<td>2615</td>
<td>1427</td>
<td>607</td>
<td>406</td>
<td>1082</td>
<td>624</td>
<td>910</td>
<td>392</td>
<td>16</td>
<td>5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>151</td>
<td>18 Ago 2014</td>
<td>2473</td>
<td>1350</td>
<td>579</td>
<td>396</td>
<td>972</td>
<td>576</td>
<td>907</td>
<td>374</td>
<td>15</td>
<td>4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>149</td>
<td>16 Ago 2014</td>
<td>2252</td>
<td>1244</td>
<td>543</td>
<td>394</td>
<td>846</td>
<td>481</td>
<td>848</td>
<td>365</td>
<td>15</td>
<td>4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>143</td>
<td>13 Ago 2014</td>
<td>2127</td>
<td>1145</td>
<td>519</td>
<td>380</td>
<td>786</td>
<td>413</td>
<td>810</td>
<td>348</td>
<td>12</td>
<td>4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>141</td>
<td>11 Ago 2014</td>
<td>1975</td>
<td>1069</td>
<td>510</td>
<td>377</td>
<td>670</td>
<td>355</td>
<td>783</td>
<td>334</td>
<td>12</td>
<td>3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>140</td>
<td>9 Ago 2014</td>
<td>1848</td>
<td>1013</td>
<td>506</td>
<td>373</td>
<td>599</td>
<td>323</td>
<td>730</td>
<td>315</td>
<td>13</td>
<td>2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>137</td>
<td>6 Ago 2014</td>
<td>1779</td>
<td>961</td>
<td>495</td>
<td>367</td>
<td>554</td>
<td>294</td>
<td>717</td>
<td>298</td>
<td>13</td>
<td>2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>135</td>
<td>4 Ago 2014</td>
<td>1711</td>
<td>932</td>
<td>495</td>
<td>363</td>
<td>516</td>
<td>282</td>
<td>691</td>
<td>286</td>
<td>9</td>
<td>1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>132</td>
<td>1 Ago 2014</td>
<td>1603</td>
<td>887</td>
<td>485</td>
<td>358</td>
<td>468</td>
<td>255</td>
<td>646</td>
<td>273</td>
<td>4</td>
<td>1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>131</td>
<td>31 Jul 2014</td>
<td>1440</td>
<td>826</td>
<td>472</td>
<td>346</td>
<td>391</td>
<td>227</td>
<td>574</td>
<td>252</td>
<td>3</td>
<td>0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>127</td>
<td>27 Jul 2014</td>
<td>1323</td>
<td>729</td>
<td>460</td>
<td>339</td>
<td>329</td>
<td>156</td>
<td>533</td>
<td>233</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>123</td>
<td>23 Jul 2014</td>
<td>1201</td>
<td>672</td>
<td>427</td>
<td>319</td>
<td>249</td>
<td>129</td>
<td>525</td>
<td>224</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>120</td>
<td>20 Jul 2014</td>
<td>1093</td>
<td>660</td>
<td>415</td>
<td>314</td>
<td>224</td>
<td>127</td>
<td>454</td>
<td>219</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>118</td>
<td>18 Jul 2014</td>
<td>1048</td>
<td>632</td>
<td>410</td>
<td>310</td>
<td>196</td>
<td>116</td>
<td>442</td>
<td>206</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>115</td>
<td>15 Jul 2014</td>
<td>964</td>
<td>603</td>
<td>406</td>
<td>304</td>
<td>172</td>
<td>105</td>
<td>386</td>
<td>194</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>110</td>
<td>10 Jul 2014</td>
<td>888</td>
<td>539</td>
<td>409</td>
<td>309</td>
<td>142</td>
<td>88</td>
<td>337</td>
<td>142</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>108</td>
<td>8 Jul 2014</td>
<td>844</td>
<td>518</td>
<td>408</td>
<td>307</td>
<td>131</td>
<td>84</td>
<td>305</td>
<td>127</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>102</td>
<td>2 Jul 2014</td>
<td>759</td>
<td>467</td>
<td>413</td>
<td>303</td>
<td>107</td>
<td>65</td>
<td>239</td>
<td>99</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>94</td>
<td>24 Jun 2014</td>
<td>599</td>
<td>338</td>
<td>390</td>
<td>270</td>
<td>51</td>
<td>34</td>
<td>158</td>
<td>34</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>88</td>
<td>18 Jun 2014</td>
<td>528</td>
<td>337</td>
<td>398</td>
<td>264</td>
<td>33</td>
<td>24</td>
<td>97</td>
<td>49</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>80</td>
<td>10 Jun 2014</td>
<td>474</td>
<td>252</td>
<td>372</td>
<td>236</td>
<td>13</td>
<td>9</td>
<td>89</td>
<td>7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>73</td>
<td>5 Jun 2014</td>
<td>438</td>
<td>231</td>
<td>344</td>
<td>215</td>
<td>13</td>
<td>9</td>
<td>81</td>
<td>7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>70</td>
<td>2 Jun 2014</td>
<td>354</td>
<td>208</td>
<td>291</td>
<td>193</td>
<td>13</td>
<td>9</td>
<td>50</td>
<td>6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>64</td>
<td>27 May 2014</td>
<td>309</td>
<td>200</td>
<td>281</td>
<td>186</td>
<td>12</td>
<td>9</td>
<td>16</td>
<td>5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>60</td>
<td>23 May 2014</td>
<td>270</td>
<td>181</td>
<td>258</td>
<td>174</td>
<td>12</td>
<td>9</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>51</td>
<td>14 May 2014</td>
<td>245</td>
<td>164</td>
<td>233</td>
<td>157</td>
<td>12</td>
<td>9</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>42</td>
<td>5 May 2014</td>
<td>243</td>
<td>162</td>
<td>231</td>
<td>155</td>
<td>12</td>
<td>9</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>37</td>
<td>30 Apr 2014</td>
<td>233</td>
<td>153</td>
<td>221</td>
<td>146</td>
<td>12</td>
<td>9</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>30</td>
<td>23 Apr 2014</td>
<td>220</td>
<td>143</td>
<td>208</td>
<td>136</td>
<td>12</td>
<td>9</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>28</td>
<td>21 Apr 2014</td>
<td>215</td>
<td>136</td>
<td>203</td>
<td>129</td>
<td>12</td>
<td>9</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>24</td>
<td>17 Apr 2014</td>
<td>209</td>
<td>129</td>
<td>197</td>
<td>122</td>
<td>12</td>
<td>9</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>17</td>
<td>10 Apr 2014</td>
<td>169</td>
<td>108</td>
<td>157</td>
<td>101</td>
<td>12</td>
<td>9</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>14</td>
<td>7 Apr 2014</td>
<td>163</td>
<td>102</td>
<td>151</td>
<td>95</td>
<td>12</td>
<td>7</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>9</td>
<td>2 Apr 2014</td>
<td>135</td>
<td>88</td>
<td>127</td>
<td>83</td>
<td>8</td>
<td>5</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>8</td>
<td>1 Apr 2014</td>
<td>130</td>
<td>82</td>
<td>122</td>
<td>80</td>
<td>8</td>
<td>2</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>7</td>
<td>31 Mar 2014</td>
<td>114</td>
<td>70</td>
<td>112</td>
<td>70</td>
<td>2</td>
<td>0</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>3</td>
<td>27 Mar 2014</td>
<td>103</td>
<td>66</td>
<td>103</td>
<td>66</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2</td>
<td>26 Mar 2014</td>
<td>86</td>
<td>60</td>
<td>86</td>
<td>60</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>1</td>
<td>25 Mar 2014</td>
<td>86</td>
<td>59</td>
<td>86</td>
<td>59</td>
</tr></table>
</body>

Nigeria hasta que no pasen 3 meses sin casos no se puede decir que este controlado. Liberia que esta descontrolado estuvo un mes que evolucionó de 2 a 12 casos, muy parecido con este mes en Nigeria que ha pasado de 3 a 17.

Rauxa · 2014-08-31T16:36:14+0200

Alguien que haya estado en estos países o lo sepa de primera mano, sabe exactamente como se diagnostica el Ébola en esos países de África?

Gracias

poled · 2014-08-31T16:36:49+0200

species8472 dijo:
Nigeria hasta que no pasen 3 meses sin casos no se puede decir que este controlado. Liberia que esta descontrolado estuvo un mes que evolucionó de 2 a 12 casos, muy parecido con este mes en Nigeria que ha pasado de 3 a 17.

Cierto, no me habia dado por ver la evolucion de Liberia en sus primeras semanas, 12 casos durante meses. Sin duda los datos de esa tabla, pese a ser los oficiales, tienen lagunas imposibles de subsanar

Pero es lo unico que tenemos, asi que...

mester de juglaria · 2014-08-31T17:41:35+0200

hola a todos .Tambien me paso a este hilo . Una idea excelente.

---------- Post added 31-ago-2014 at 17:53 ----------

Rauxa dijo:
Alguien que haya estado en estos países o lo sepa de primera mano, sabe exactamente como se diagnostica el Ébola en esos países de África?

Gracias

hace tiempo ya que no vivo por alla ,pero aun guardo contacto con un par de amiguetes .

Si tengo tiempo hoy igual llamo a uno que es medio medico a preguntarselo

indemunlai · 2014-08-31T17:57:32+0200

Scientists have found more than 300 genetic mutations in the current Ebola bichito that is currently sweeping across West Africa, writes Nature World News.Scientists Find More Than 300 Mutations In Ebola bichito : Science : Design & Trend

The Ebola bichito sweeping through West Africa has mutated repeatedly during the current outbreak, a fact that could hinder diagnosis and treatment of the devastating disease, according to scientists who have genetically sequenced the bichito in scores of victims.
Ebola bichito has mutated during course of outbreak - The Washington Post

Now scientists are starting to get some answers. In a new paper in Science, researchers reveal that they have sequenced the genomes of Ebola from 78 patients in Sierra Leone  who contracted the disease in May and June. Those sequences revealed some 300 mutations specific to this outbreak.
http://www.********/2014/8/28/6071071/ebola-sequencing

"We've uncovered more than 300 genetic clues about what sets this outbreak apart from previous outbreaks," Stephen Gire, a research scientist in the Sabeti lab at the Broad Institute and Harvard University, said in a statement.Genomic sequencing reveals origins, mutations of Ebola outbreak - Xinhua | English.news.cn

Ferraun · 2014-08-31T18:35:54+0200

Parece ser que la mujer del médico que murió en Port Harcourt (la primera víctima mortal de Ébola en Nigeria fuera de Lagos) también ha contraído la enfermedad.

Widow of Nigeria's sixth Ebola victim also has bichito | MENAFN.COM

Rivers State health commissioner Sampson Parker said test results showed the woman had the disease, which claimed the life of her husband, Ike Enemuo, on August 22.

Some 200 primary and secondary contacts have been traced, although about 60 had yet to be spoken to, he added. None of them had shown symptoms, he said.

---------- Post added 31-ago-2014 at 18:45 ----------

Un artículo de divulgación científica de la revista Science sobre la posible evolución de la epidemia... Da miedo.

Disease modelers project a rapidly rising toll from Ebola

Alessandro Vespignani hopes that his latest work will turn out to be wrong. In July, the physicist from Northeastern University in Boston started modeling how the deadly Ebola bichito may spread in West Africa. Extrapolating existing trends, the number of the sick and dying mounts rapidly from the current toll—more than 3000 cases and 1500 deaths—to around 10,000 cases by September 24, and hundreds of thousands in the months after that. “The numbers are really scary,” he says—although he stresses that the model assumes control efforts aren't stepped up. "We all hope to see this NOT happening," Vespigani writes in an e-mail.

Vespignani is not the only one trying to predict how the unprecedented outbreak will progress. Last week, the World Health Organization (WHO) estimated that the number of cases could ultimately exceed 20,000. And scientists across the world are scrambling to create computer models that accurately describe the spread of the deadly bichito. Not all of them look quite as bleak as Vespignani's. But the modelers all agree that current efforts to control the epidemic are not enough to stop the deadly pathogen in its tracks.

Computer models “are incredibly helpful” in curbing an outbreak, says infectious disease researcher Jeremy Farrar, who heads the Wellcome Trust research charity in London. They can help agencies such as WHO predict the medical supplies and personnel they will need—and can indicate which interventions will best stem the outbreak. Mathematical epidemiologist Christian Althaus of the University of Bern, who is also building Ebola models, says both WHO and Samaritan's Purse, a relief organization fighting Ebola, have contacted him to learn about his projections.

But the modelers are hampered by the paucity of data on the current outbreak and lack of knowledge about how Ebola spreads. Funerals of Ebola victims are known to spread the bichito, for example—but how many people are infected that way is not known. “Before this we have never had that much Ebola, so the epidemiology was never well developed,” says Ira Longini, a biostatistician at the University of Florida in Gainesville. “We are caught with our pants down.”

To a mathematician, combating any outbreak is at its core a fight to reduce one number: Re, the pathogen’s effective reproductive rate, the number of people that an infected person in turn infects on average. An Re above 1, and the disease spreads. Below 1, an outbreak will stall.

Outbreak models typically assume that there are four groups of people: those who are susceptible, those who have been infected but are not contagious yet, those who are sick and can transmit the bichito, and those who have recovered. A model, in essence, describes the rates at which people move from one group to the next. From those, Re can be calculated.

If the disease keeps spreading as it has, most of the modelers Science talked to say WHO’s estimate will turn out to be conservative. “If the epidemic in Liberia were to continue in this way until the 1st of December, the cumulative number of cases would exceed 100,000,” predicts Althaus. Such long-term forecasts are error-prone, he acknowledges. But other modelers aren’t much more encouraging. Caitlin Rivers of the Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University in Blacksburg expects roughly 1000 new cases in Liberia in the next 2 weeks and a similar number in Sierra Leone.

Vespignani has analyzed the likelihood that Ebola will spread to other countries. Using data on millions of air travelers and commuters, as well as mobility patterns based on data from censuses and mobile devices, he has built a model of the world, into which he can introduce Ebola and then run hundreds of thousands of simulations. In general, the chance of further spread beyond West Africa is small, Vespignani says, but the risk grows with the scale of the epidemic. Ghana, the United Kingdom, and the United States are among the countries most likely to have an introduced case, according to the model. (Senegal, which reported its first Ebola case last week, was in his top ten countries, too.)

The models are only as good as the data fed to them; up to three-quarters of Ebola cases may go unreported. The modelers are also assuming that key parameters, such as the bichito’s incubation time, are the same as in earlier outbreaks. “We might be missing the boat and we have no signal to indicate that,” says Martin Meltzer of the U.S. Centers for Disease Prevention and Control in Atlanta.

The biggest uncertainty is how much doctors, nurses, and others can slow the bichito. There are many ways of pushing down Re, Farrar says—washing hands, wearing masks, or quarantining people, for example. “But given the complexity of this outbreak and the limited resources, we need to find out what are the two or three things that will most help drive down infections,” Farrar says, and that’s where models can help. For instance, would amowing up on all the contacts of every case be more effective than amowing up on the much smaller number who had a certain type of contact with a case, such as sharing a room?

Rivers is evaluating interventions, such as increased use of protective equipment or campaigns to isolate infected people. In the most optimistic scenario, every contact of infected people is traced, and transmission in hospitals is reduced by 75%. Even that, while drastically reducing the number of Ebola deaths, did not push Re below one.

The challenge varies by country, Althaus says. “In Guinea and Sierra Leone, Re is close to 1 and the outbreak could be stopped if interventions improve a bit.” In Liberia, Re has been near 1.5 the whole time. “That means work is only just beginning there.” But Meltzer says there is no reason to believe the situation is any better in Sierra Leone. “We are not seeing any change in the rate of the accumulation of cases,” he says.

As models get better at differentiating what is happening in places, Rivers says, “you might be able to put firelines around certain communities.” But such measures are very controversial. When Liberia last week barricaded off West Point, a sprawling slum with probably more than 100,000 inhabitants, it drew a largely negative response. “Quarantines and curfews tend to instill antiestéticar and distrust towards the whole of the outbreak response including health structures,” a representative for Doctors Without Borders told Science. Paul Seabright, a researcher at the Toulouse School of Economics in France who has studied such measures, says they are an incentive for people to keep it secret if they have had contact with a patient. Liberia’s harsh actions are “the last thing this epidemic needs,” he says.

People in West Africa will have to alter behaviors, Meltzer says. “We won’t stop this outbreak solely by building hospitals. There will have to be a change in the way the community deals with the disease.” Modeling that is easy enough, Vespignani says. “I can decrease the transmission at funerals by 40% easily in a model. That’s one line of code. But in the field that is really hard.”

mester de juglaria · 2014-08-31T18:58:44+0200

Curioso articulo .

El ebola ya campa a sus anchas por los pueblos . Ahora lo peor esta por llegar , caso de que llegue a las ciudades.

Ebola bichito: It's ripped through towns

Por cierto ,parece que lo de que se transmita por el aire empieza a coger mas fuerza. Mirad las masscaras, etc... de los doctores . Ahora se cubren por completo!

Ferraun · 2014-08-31T19:02:33+0200

Uno de los artículos donde se describe el modelo matemático del actual brote de Ébola. Os lo podéis descargar y ver los gráficos y las conclusiones, es de acceso libre.

Estimating the reproduction number of Ebola bichito (EBOV) during the 2014 outbreak in West Africa

Abstract
The 2014 Ebola bichito (EBOV) outbreak in West Africa is the largest outbreak of the genus Ebolavirus to date. To better understand the spread of infection in the affected countries, it is crucial to know the number of secondary cases generated by an infected index case in the absence and presence of control measures, i.e., the basic and effective reproduction number. In this study, I describe the EBOV epidemic using an SEIR (susceptible-exposed- infectious-recovered) model and fit the model to the most recent reported data of infected cases and deaths in Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia. The maximum likelihood estimates of the basic reproduction number are 1.51 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.50-1.52) for Guinea, 2.53 (95% CI: 2.41-2.67) for Sierra Leone and 1.59 (95% CI: 1.57-1.60) for Liberia. The model shows that in Guinea and Sierra Leone the effective reproduction number dropped below unity by the end of May and July 2014, respectively. In Liberia, however, the model estimates no decline in the effective reproduction number by end-August 2014. This suggests that control efforts in Liberia need to be improved substantially in order to stop the current outbreak.

Hacer clic para expandir...

Discussion

Hacer clic para expandir...

This study uses mathematical modeling to estimate the basic and effective reproduction numbers of EBOV during the 2014 outbreak in West Africa. The maximum likelihood esitmates of R0 are 1.51 for Guinea, 2.53 for Sierra Leone and 1.59 for Liberia and lie within the same range as previous estimates for an EBOV outbreak in Congo (1995) and an outbreak of Sudan bichito (SUDV) in Uganda (2000)

---------- Post added 31-ago-2014 at 19:13 ----------

El ebola ya campa a sus anchas por los pueblos . Ahora lo peor esta por llegar , caso de que llegue a las ciudades

.

EL Washington Post tenía ayer un artículo en este sentido...

It was already the worst Ebola outbreak in history. Now it’s moving into Africa’s cities.

poled · 2014-08-31T19:51:05+0200

Creo que si se transmite por la saliva el contagio por el aire es probable. No al nivel de una gripe pero sí si te tragas de refilon el estornudo de un infectado, anda que no hay gente que a veces no pone la mano al estornudar, y en Africa supongo que mas

fud · 2014-08-31T19:56:31+0200

mester de juglaria dijo:
Curioso articulo .

El ebola ya campa a sus anchas por los pueblos . Ahora lo peor esta por llegar , caso de que llegue a las ciudades.

Ebola bichito: It's ripped through towns

Por cierto ,parece que lo de que se transmita por el aire empieza a coger mas fuerza. Mirad las masscaras, etc... de los doctores . Ahora se cubren por completo!

No parece que se transmita por el aire. En el caso de Sawyer en Nigeria, este hizo el viaje en un espacio tan cerrado como un avión y no se contagió ningún otro pasajero.

Según parece el que hizo el famoso paper de los monos y los cerdos dice ahora que esto no implica que pueda pasar lo mismo con las personas.

Study Confirms That Ebola Is Not Transmitted Through The Air | IFLScience

Otra cosa es que el bichito se transmita muy fácilmente en los profesionales de la Salud al tratar pacientes infectados sin protección, tal como paso también en el caso de Nigeria. Es normal que se cubran de pies a la cabeza.

libertari · 2014-08-31T21:59:24+0200

¿Se sabe algo del paciente aislado en Malaga?

ignatiux · 2014-08-31T22:47:32+0200

Eszta noticia es del viernes, no la habia visto, si eszta repe lo siento
Trabajador de Médicos Sin Fronteras, posible primer caso de ébola en Europa

libertari · 2014-08-31T22:56:57+0200

Posible caso de ebola en Suecia.

Swedish hospital investigating possible case of Ebola-media

Aug 31 (Reuters) - A hospital in the Swedish capital is investigating a possible case of Ebola, Swedish media reported on Sunday.

A man who recently travelled to a "risk area" for the bichito was taken to Karolinska University Hospital in Stockholm suffering from a fever and is being treated in an isolation unit, the reports said.

Swedish hospital investigating possible case of Ebola-media | Reuters

casipepito · 2014-08-31T23:41:05+0200

poled dijo:
Creo que si se transmite por la saliva el contagio por el aire es probable. No al nivel de una gripe pero sí si te tragas de refilon el estornudo de un infectado, anda que no hay gente que a veces no pone la mano al estornudar, y en Africa supongo que mas

Eso dalo por hecho. Si llegan microgotas de saliva a contactar con alguna mucosa (ojos, boca, inhalación), el contagio es completamente posible.

Además, se sabe que el bichito aguanta varias horas seco a temperatura ambiente sin luz, por lo que yo creo que partículas secas transportadas por el aire en esas condiciones pueden llevar el bichito.

"In another study, Ebolavirus dried onto glass, polymeric silicone rubber, or painted aluminum alloy is able to survive in the dark for several hours under ambient conditions (between 20 and 250C and 30–40% relative humidity) (amount of bichito reduced to 37% after 15.4 hours), but is less stable than some other viral hemorrhagic fevers (Lassa)"

Ebolavirus - Pathogen Safety Data Sheets

365 · 1 Sep 2014

Traigo este articulo con todo el respeto del mundo. Par mi la experiencia es mucho más que un grado y este señor experiencia tiene a raudales.

´Los ácaros son los transmisores del ébola´ - La Opinión de Málaga

El experto Manuel Reverte afirma que la epidemia podría curarse con elementos de limpieza como el bicarbonato

Efe / Madrid 05.08.2014 | 13:56
En los años 80, José Manuel Reverte era el experto en anatomía patológica más conocido de España, decían de él que podía hacer "hablar" a los huesos de un cadáver hasta que proporcionaran las pistas para detener al asesino. Ahora ha puesto en su microscopio al bichito del Ébola y ha encontrado culpables.

"!Son los ácaros! -afirma con rotundidad- los transmisores del Ébola. Me gustaría pedir a los investigadores que examinen a los pacientes para buscar ácaros. Seguro que encontrarán cantidad. Y quizás podría atajarse la epidemia con elementos de limpieza tan simples como el bicarbonato sódico, el alcanfor y tabletas antiácaros", sostiene.

Reverte tiene 92 años y reconoce que sus afirmaciones se basan en una "intuición". Podría pensarse que culpar a los ácaros de algo tan grave como el ébola es demasiado sencillo para ser verdad, pero hay que valorar la experiencia de quien lo dice.

Doctorado en Medicina en la especialidad de histopatología, un centenar de libros publicados, decenas de idiomas -vivos y muertos- en su cabeza, precursor en españa del CSI, investigador en anatomía forense al servicio de la Guardia Civil y la Policía en decenas de casos "sonados" y 24 años de experiencia en Panamá abriendo centros de Salud para atajar la Tularemia, la Enfermedad de Chagas, la Fiebre de las Montañas Rocosas o la Leishmaniasis. En muchas de ellas el vector de transmisión, dice, "era un ácaro".

Según la OMS, "los pacientes son contagiosos mientras el bichito esté presente en la sangre y las secreciones". "Se considera que los murciélagos frugívoros son posiblemente los huéspedes naturales del bichito del Ebola en África". También se considera huéspedes naturales a primates (monos y hominidos), y cerdos, entre otras especies.

"No es la sangre ni los fluidos. ¡Son los ácaros los transmisores!", enfatiza.

"Hay cerca de un millón de especies de ácaros y solo 30.000 están estudiadas. Los ácaros son responsables de muchas de las enfermedades contagiosas conocidas, incluso se ha demostrado que pueden transmitir el sida", agrega.

Los ácaros, del griego "akares", que significa diminuto, son en su mayoría microscópicos y muy pocos se nutren de sangre humana (la garrapata por ejemplo, que además es de los pocos claramente visibles). La mayoría se alimentan de restos de piel, pelos y detritus de los animales que parasitan, incluidas las personas.

José Manuel Reverte cuenta como, en su larga etapa como promotor de los sistemas de salud en Panamá, en colaboración con el Instituto Gorgas y el Smithsonian, a los que sigue vinculado, pudo comprobar al microscopio la presencia de ácaros en las muestras (tinciones) que se recogían de pacientes con enfermedades contagiosas.

"Yo, modestamente, me gustaría decirles a mis compañeros de la OMS 'estáis buscando mal' en el caso del ébola. ¡Nadie ha hablado de ácaros y son peores que los microbios!", subraya.

El bichito del Ébola, que toma este nombre del pequeño río de la República Democrática del Congo junto al que aparecieron en 1976 los primeros casos, es letal entre un 50 y un 90 por ciento, no hay por el momento una banderilla que lo controle y ha dado de baja de la suscripción de la vita a más de 700 personas en el último brote detectado.

Desde su residencia en una zona tranquila del barrio universitario de Moncloa, en Madrid, Reverte rememora sus clases en la universidad como discípulo de Severo Ochoa y otros 'grandes' de la ciencia española, y sus primeras visitas como ayudante a los quirófanos, con poco mas de 15 años, durante la Guerra Civil.

También los casos "sonados" en los que los investigadores de la Guardia Civil le llevaban los restos de algún esqueleto para ayudarles en la identificación. De ahí salió su libro "Los huesos hablan" y el famoso caso de los asesinatos del mesón del Lobo Feroz, en el que dos cortesanas habían sido asesinadas y emparedadas en el sótano de un mesón del centro de Madrid.

Las investigaciones de José Manuel Reverte ayudaron a desentrañar este caso y a detener al asesino.

En su trabajo analizaba cualquier marca de los huesos para saber si el arma homicida era una pistola o un cuchillo y calculaba el tiempo transcurrido desde la fin por los insectos, gusanos y bacterias que acompañaban al cadáver.

Los ácaros, dice, han estado presentes en sus pesquisas para hallar a los responsables de una fin a lo largo de toda su dilatada carrera profesional.

Seguimiento del brote de Ébola

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