Habéis visto el IBEX35? Julio 2014: gacelas con servidor nuevo, se miran y ven cuatro cigotos +
- Autor del tema Guybrush_Threepwood
- Fecha de inicio
paulistano
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Es hustec una máquina señol jato...no para de sacar pips
Guybrush_Threepwood
Madmaxista
Nadie advirtió de que el Apocalipsis zombi llegaría de fiesta y en dosis de metiendioxipirovalerona (MDPV). Tampoco que el primer 'perecid viviente' sería inglés, ni que policías locales y enfermeras de la paradisíaca isla de Ibiza se llevarían las primeras dentelladas.
La Unidad Antidroga de la Guardia Civil de Ibiza busca estos días la partida de una sustancia similar a la sustancia ilegal, que puede ser fumada como hierba sintética, esnifada o inyectada, y que produce paranoia extrema, psicosis, reacciones violentas, instintos suicidas y también mordiscos.
Luego dirán que nadie les avisó, que quien lo iba a saber.
Brothers of ZAST, Defcon 3. Be prepared. Pecata, eres bienvenida.
La Unidad Antidroga de la Guardia Civil de Ibiza busca estos días la partida de una sustancia similar a la sustancia ilegal, que puede ser fumada como hierba sintética, esnifada o inyectada, y que produce paranoia extrema, psicosis, reacciones violentas, instintos suicidas y también mordiscos.
Tienes que estar registrado para ver este contenido
Luego dirán que nadie les avisó, que quien lo iba a saber.
Brothers of ZAST, Defcon 3. Be prepared. Pecata, eres bienvenida.
perecid
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Dios nos da la sabiduria :o
creo que iremos a cerrar el gap 11080 y luego pabajo hasta los 10750 😛ienso:
---------- Post added 01-jul-2014 at 09:43 ----------
es un apocalipsis sano 😛ienso:
creo que iremos a cerrar el gap 11080 y luego pabajo hasta los 10750 😛ienso:
---------- Post added 01-jul-2014 at 09:43 ----------
es un apocalipsis sano 😛ienso:
Simple Simon
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Miren por curiosidad la salida de FacePhi. Todavia no saben como ganar dinero, y en el primer cruce ya va por 1,84 que es valorar la compañia en casi 20 kilotones.
En esta semana va a ser una fabrica de pillados epica...Sale a 1,23. Yo la veo a 4 antes de que acabe la semana..
En esta semana va a ser una fabrica de pillados epica...Sale a 1,23. Yo la veo a 4 antes de que acabe la semana..
paulistano
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Entonces hay que entrar y salirse?
atman
Madmaxista
este server no se cae... no se cae... no se c....
Simple Simon
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Si puedes entrar:rolleye::rolleye: Apenas tienen liquidez, no mas de 15% de float y estan entrando ordenes de compra de mas de un 30%
paulistano
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Ya he visto.... 3.5mm de títulos en la demanda y apenas 150m a la venta....
Nada.... Otro día nos hacemos ricos.
bertok
Será en Octubre
Llegará y habrá lágrimas como mares.
El gambling nunca fue buen negocio.
Pero el jilo está lleno de hábiles inversores que saltarán del barco al segundo día de corrección :
:::::bertok
Será en Octubre
Sigamos estirando hasta que pint
The Truth About First Quarter S&P 500 Earnings
The last time we looked at real, GAAP, not "pro-forma" non-GAAP EPS, in November of last year, when the S&P 500 was just over 1800, we found that on an LTM GAAP basis, the market was trading at a whopping 19x P/E LTM - a number which all but the most dyed-in-the-wool permabulls such as Janet Yellen, would call significantly overvalued (and which even JPM reported was higher than 89% of all P/E prints in the history of the market).
What peine next was remarkable: trinc a uniform change to pension accounting, which helped "revise" US GDP by $500 billion higher, said revision also flowed through to reported corporate earnings, not just non-GAAP EPS but also GAAP, and EPS for the S&P500 were revised retroactively higher virtually uniformly by about $1.5 per quarter. This revision is shown on the chart below.
This is notable because it means that LTM GAAP EPS for the S&P500 were pushed higher from roughly $100 to $106 as of March 31.
In other words, had it not been for the pension accounting fudge which helped raise LTM S&P 500 GAAP EPS from $100 to $106, the P/E of the S&P would be nearly 20x as of Q1. Nonetheless, even on a "revised" GAAP basis, taking full benefit of pension accounting revisions (revisions which are only possible due to the S&P500 being at record highs, something which reflexively is only possible because valuation gimmicks such as this one!) the S&P is still trading at a nosebleed 18.5x LTM P/E.
So how does GAAP EPS compare to that perpetually fudged, Non-GAAP EPS - used excuslively by overzealous management teams and sell-side analysts to "justify" quite ridiculous valuations "when one excludes one-time charges, restructuring items, and so on." Like fore exammple Alcoa's perpetually recurring, "non-recurring" charges or JPM's now constant "one-time" legal addbacks. The delta between the two is shown in the chart below:
On an LTM basis this means that the choice of GAAP or Non-GAAP for the S&P 500 is equivalent to 2 turns of LTM P/E: 16.5 vs 18.5.
Backing up one chart, observent readers will notice something peculiar: in Q1 GAAP earnings tumbled while Non-GAAP earnings maintained an exuberant upward trajectory. Sure enough, anyone curious how real, GAAP EPS performed in the just completed quarter, should look at the chart below. It shows that GAAP EPS (helped by a record amount of corporate buybacks) in the first quarter of 2014 actually dropped 2.2% from Q1 2013 even as Non-GAAP suggested a nearly 5% increase!
As noted, this is happening even as corporations bought back a record amount of their own stock in Q1, reducing the S in the EPS, and thus artificially boosting the overall EPS number. One can only imagine how much worse the decling in EPS would have been had stock repurchases slowed down:
How does one explain the dramatic surge in Non-GAAP EPS compared to GAAP? Simple: supposed "one-time" Write-offs. This is what Deutsche Bank has to say about the topic:
Common items excluded from non-GAAP EPS are goodwill impairments, restructuring charges, merger costs, gain/loss on assets sales etc., which tend to be cyclical. Hence the difference between GAAP and non-GAAP EPS is largest during recessions and ~10% ex. recessions.
It is thus not surprising that the "write-off" difference between GAAP and Non-GAAP surged in Q1 2014 to 2.9: the highest since Q4 2012 when EPS once again slumped and the Fed was brought in to launch QEternity. In fact, excluding the two quarters prior to the launch of the latest round of QE, the number of "addbacks, write-offs and restructuring charges" has never been greater since the Lehman failure.
The bottom line is that the LTM P/E for the S&P 500 is therefore one of three numbers:
16.5x on a non-GAAP basis.
18.5x on a revised GAAP basis, or
19.5x on a pre-revision GAAP basis, when corporations do not take the "benefit" of a pension boost to EPS which is solely the result of record high stock prices courtesy of a Fed and HFT-manipulated market.
Readers can make their own choice which number to use based on their own particular bias.
As for corporate revenues and CapEx... fughetaboutit.
Tienes que estar registrado para ver este contenido
The Truth About First Quarter S&P 500 Earnings
The last time we looked at real, GAAP, not "pro-forma" non-GAAP EPS, in November of last year, when the S&P 500 was just over 1800, we found that on an LTM GAAP basis, the market was trading at a whopping 19x P/E LTM - a number which all but the most dyed-in-the-wool permabulls such as Janet Yellen, would call significantly overvalued (and which even JPM reported was higher than 89% of all P/E prints in the history of the market).
You must be registered for see images
What peine next was remarkable: trinc a uniform change to pension accounting, which helped "revise" US GDP by $500 billion higher, said revision also flowed through to reported corporate earnings, not just non-GAAP EPS but also GAAP, and EPS for the S&P500 were revised retroactively higher virtually uniformly by about $1.5 per quarter. This revision is shown on the chart below.
You must be registered for see images
This is notable because it means that LTM GAAP EPS for the S&P500 were pushed higher from roughly $100 to $106 as of March 31.
You must be registered for see images
In other words, had it not been for the pension accounting fudge which helped raise LTM S&P 500 GAAP EPS from $100 to $106, the P/E of the S&P would be nearly 20x as of Q1. Nonetheless, even on a "revised" GAAP basis, taking full benefit of pension accounting revisions (revisions which are only possible due to the S&P500 being at record highs, something which reflexively is only possible because valuation gimmicks such as this one!) the S&P is still trading at a nosebleed 18.5x LTM P/E.
You must be registered for see images
So how does GAAP EPS compare to that perpetually fudged, Non-GAAP EPS - used excuslively by overzealous management teams and sell-side analysts to "justify" quite ridiculous valuations "when one excludes one-time charges, restructuring items, and so on." Like fore exammple Alcoa's perpetually recurring, "non-recurring" charges or JPM's now constant "one-time" legal addbacks. The delta between the two is shown in the chart below:
You must be registered for see images
On an LTM basis this means that the choice of GAAP or Non-GAAP for the S&P 500 is equivalent to 2 turns of LTM P/E: 16.5 vs 18.5.
You must be registered for see images
Backing up one chart, observent readers will notice something peculiar: in Q1 GAAP earnings tumbled while Non-GAAP earnings maintained an exuberant upward trajectory. Sure enough, anyone curious how real, GAAP EPS performed in the just completed quarter, should look at the chart below. It shows that GAAP EPS (helped by a record amount of corporate buybacks) in the first quarter of 2014 actually dropped 2.2% from Q1 2013 even as Non-GAAP suggested a nearly 5% increase!
You must be registered for see images
As noted, this is happening even as corporations bought back a record amount of their own stock in Q1, reducing the S in the EPS, and thus artificially boosting the overall EPS number. One can only imagine how much worse the decling in EPS would have been had stock repurchases slowed down:
You must be registered for see images
How does one explain the dramatic surge in Non-GAAP EPS compared to GAAP? Simple: supposed "one-time" Write-offs. This is what Deutsche Bank has to say about the topic:
Common items excluded from non-GAAP EPS are goodwill impairments, restructuring charges, merger costs, gain/loss on assets sales etc., which tend to be cyclical. Hence the difference between GAAP and non-GAAP EPS is largest during recessions and ~10% ex. recessions.
It is thus not surprising that the "write-off" difference between GAAP and Non-GAAP surged in Q1 2014 to 2.9: the highest since Q4 2012 when EPS once again slumped and the Fed was brought in to launch QEternity. In fact, excluding the two quarters prior to the launch of the latest round of QE, the number of "addbacks, write-offs and restructuring charges" has never been greater since the Lehman failure.
You must be registered for see images
The bottom line is that the LTM P/E for the S&P 500 is therefore one of three numbers:
16.5x on a non-GAAP basis.
18.5x on a revised GAAP basis, or
19.5x on a pre-revision GAAP basis, when corporations do not take the "benefit" of a pension boost to EPS which is solely the result of record high stock prices courtesy of a Fed and HFT-manipulated market.
Readers can make their own choice which number to use based on their own particular bias.
As for corporate revenues and CapEx... fughetaboutit.
mpbk
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que váis a esperar de un chicharrete. deberia estar a 7€. está sobrevalorada..
Tio Masclet
Madmaxista
Buenos días, a -20%.
---------- Post added 01-jul-2014 at 11:08 ----------
Muy bien piratón, por fin un hilo abierto en tiempo y hora.
perecid
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busca robando :fiufiu:
Tio Masclet
Madmaxista
Eurona parece que se anima a seguir a Gowex.
Guybrush_Threepwood
Madmaxista
Y sin faltas de orto-grafía hoyja!
Neutron_Mortgages
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.
Bonito piano ... :rolleye:
Como esto está pelín aburrido podíamos hacer una porra IBEX a 31/07/2014
neutron_mortgages: 10.580
Y otra de cuántos días se caerá el server de burbuja en el mes:
neutron_mortgages: 4