Guybrush_Threepwood
Madmaxista
Este chico llegará alto! :
:
:
¿Habéis visto el Ibex 35? Mayo 2014. Dividendos everywhere y chicharros envenados. Keep your money s
- Autor del tema Tono
- Fecha de inicio
FranR
Madmaxista
Poco que decir, el 7 de mayo ¿cómo estábamos?... lateral, pero con bandazos cada vez más fuertes. (ergo la resolución de un nuevo tramo de tendencia la tenemos ahí cerquita)
Hemos hecho el test arriba y seguimos dentro de canal. Los 10.306 parece un buen punto para tomar decisiones...
Lo mismo que dije el otro día, los que estaban dentro largos aguantar...que han rascado un buen pellizco y les habrán saltado los S. Profit y los que estaban fuera se han ahorrado las comisiones. Ahora dejar pasar la sesión de mañana que debería ser una etapa por los dolomitas y mirar ofertas para la semana que viene...
A ver si luego tengo tiempo y subo algún nivel/situación de los indicadores y como nos dejan las proyecciones para la semana entrante.
Tengo el tiempo justo de leer el foro por encima y visitas de rigor.
(Según la hoja de ruta marcada a principio de año, esta serie debería acercarse a los 11.000, terminamos ciclo a medio alcista y empezamos la caída infennal)
bertok
Será en Octubre
No es meter más miedo a los Pandero-rrotos pero la prensa gringa está que lo tira :fiufiu::fiufiu::fiufiu:
Even If Coal Has Bottomed, Will It Ever Recover?
Over the last few weeks, I've heard pundits and bloggers alike pontificate about the coal sector reaching a bottom. Indeed, the massive sell-off makes current valuations look attractive, but we invest based on future prospects, not what's happening now. So let's take a look at why coal will continue to have a very rough time over the coming years and if you should invest in this sector.
With the Mercury and Air Toxics Standards (MATS) set to take effect in April 2015, many companies are retiring coal-fired plants at an increasing rate. Currently 300,000 MW are generated from coal in the U.S. The EIA's revised estimate, released in February 2014, is now projecting retirements that represent approximately 20% of total capacity or 60,000 MW. This is up from 40,000 MW. This will permanently change the face of energy in the U.S.
In addition to the numerous retirements, new coal-fired power plant construction is practically nonexistent. 2013 saw the addition of only two new coal fired power plants to the U.S. energy grid, and both were delayed projects that were originally scheduled to be completed during 2011 and 2012.
A majority of coal produced in the U.S. goes toward electricity generation, making this a key sector to most coal producers.
Coal producers are often tracked through the Market Vectors Coal ETF (NYSEMKT: KOL ) , which has seen increasing pressure lately. Let's face it, domestic producers of coal are losing one-fifth of their U.S. customer base. With that decreasing demand comes lower prices. Those low prices are resulting in significant losses for many coal producers.
This will take its toll on smaller domestic producers like Arch Coal (NYSE: ACI ) , which has been struggling with profitability lately. Arch's metallurgical coal platform is expanding, but a vast majority of Arch's coal goes to producers of electric power in 37 of the 48 continental U.S. states. Arch Coal recently reported a $0.60 loss for the first quarter and management appears to be lacking any original ideas on how to turn this trend around.
John W. Eaves, Arch's President and CEO, stated, "at Arch, we are taking proactive steps to manage our controllable costs and capital spending, reduce our cash outflows and preserve our liquidity. Moreover, we are reducing our expected metallurgical coal sales volume by approximately 1 million tons for 2014."
Kind of sounds a bit like business hibernation with the hope that things will someday improve. Analysts are looking for Arch Coal's declining EPS trend to continue in fiscal 2014, down 68% to a loss of $1.82, so that improvement isn't showing up anytime soon.
Established producers like Peabody Energy (NYSE: BTU ) that benefit from diverse global operations aren't immune, either. Of the 251.7 million tons of coal the company produced in 2013, approximately 95% was thermal coal.
Peabody posted an adjusted loss of $0.19 per share in the first quarter of 2014. Cost-cutting measures and higher sales volume trinc an unusually cold winter provided a buffer against lower realized pricing per ton. Australia saw a 17% decline in revenue per ton, while the U.S. experienced a 7% decline respectively.
The saving grace for Peabody will be significant holdings in the sub-bituminous low sulfur coal deposits in Wyoming and Montana (which is environmentally preferable) and access to the Asian markets. Peabody Energy Chairman and CEO Gregory H. Boyce acknowledged "Peabody's position in the low-cost U.S. basins and high-growth Asian markets allows us to navigate current market pressures and benefit from long-term demand trends."
While the company's long-term game plan is sound, until these "current market pressures" abate, it would be prudent to watch from the sidelines before jumping into the coal game.
The payoff
The future of coal doesn't look too good. Power plants are the main consumers of coal, but they are seeing significant retirements. Worse, there are not enough new coal-fired plants coming online to make up the difference. There currently doesn't appear to be a macroeconomic catalyst on the horizon that will provide support for the coal industry. Instead, it looks as though environmental policy, burgeoning natural gas production, and tepid international demand are all conspiring to further this commodity's decline. It would be wise to avoid calling a bottom in a sector with so many looming factors.
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Even If Coal Has Bottomed, Will It Ever Recover?
Over the last few weeks, I've heard pundits and bloggers alike pontificate about the coal sector reaching a bottom. Indeed, the massive sell-off makes current valuations look attractive, but we invest based on future prospects, not what's happening now. So let's take a look at why coal will continue to have a very rough time over the coming years and if you should invest in this sector.
With the Mercury and Air Toxics Standards (MATS) set to take effect in April 2015, many companies are retiring coal-fired plants at an increasing rate. Currently 300,000 MW are generated from coal in the U.S. The EIA's revised estimate, released in February 2014, is now projecting retirements that represent approximately 20% of total capacity or 60,000 MW. This is up from 40,000 MW. This will permanently change the face of energy in the U.S.
In addition to the numerous retirements, new coal-fired power plant construction is practically nonexistent. 2013 saw the addition of only two new coal fired power plants to the U.S. energy grid, and both were delayed projects that were originally scheduled to be completed during 2011 and 2012.
A majority of coal produced in the U.S. goes toward electricity generation, making this a key sector to most coal producers.
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Coal producers are often tracked through the Market Vectors Coal ETF (NYSEMKT: KOL ) , which has seen increasing pressure lately. Let's face it, domestic producers of coal are losing one-fifth of their U.S. customer base. With that decreasing demand comes lower prices. Those low prices are resulting in significant losses for many coal producers.
This will take its toll on smaller domestic producers like Arch Coal (NYSE: ACI ) , which has been struggling with profitability lately. Arch's metallurgical coal platform is expanding, but a vast majority of Arch's coal goes to producers of electric power in 37 of the 48 continental U.S. states. Arch Coal recently reported a $0.60 loss for the first quarter and management appears to be lacking any original ideas on how to turn this trend around.
John W. Eaves, Arch's President and CEO, stated, "at Arch, we are taking proactive steps to manage our controllable costs and capital spending, reduce our cash outflows and preserve our liquidity. Moreover, we are reducing our expected metallurgical coal sales volume by approximately 1 million tons for 2014."
Kind of sounds a bit like business hibernation with the hope that things will someday improve. Analysts are looking for Arch Coal's declining EPS trend to continue in fiscal 2014, down 68% to a loss of $1.82, so that improvement isn't showing up anytime soon.
Established producers like Peabody Energy (NYSE: BTU ) that benefit from diverse global operations aren't immune, either. Of the 251.7 million tons of coal the company produced in 2013, approximately 95% was thermal coal.
Peabody posted an adjusted loss of $0.19 per share in the first quarter of 2014. Cost-cutting measures and higher sales volume trinc an unusually cold winter provided a buffer against lower realized pricing per ton. Australia saw a 17% decline in revenue per ton, while the U.S. experienced a 7% decline respectively.
The saving grace for Peabody will be significant holdings in the sub-bituminous low sulfur coal deposits in Wyoming and Montana (which is environmentally preferable) and access to the Asian markets. Peabody Energy Chairman and CEO Gregory H. Boyce acknowledged "Peabody's position in the low-cost U.S. basins and high-growth Asian markets allows us to navigate current market pressures and benefit from long-term demand trends."
While the company's long-term game plan is sound, until these "current market pressures" abate, it would be prudent to watch from the sidelines before jumping into the coal game.
The payoff
The future of coal doesn't look too good. Power plants are the main consumers of coal, but they are seeing significant retirements. Worse, there are not enough new coal-fired plants coming online to make up the difference. There currently doesn't appear to be a macroeconomic catalyst on the horizon that will provide support for the coal industry. Instead, it looks as though environmental policy, burgeoning natural gas production, and tepid international demand are all conspiring to further this commodity's decline. It would be wise to avoid calling a bottom in a sector with so many looming factors.
Guybrush_Threepwood
Madmaxista
Looming factor te voy a dar yo a ti.... como saquen un reactor que chupe el C02, azufres y tal de forma eficiente te vas a enterar el chupinatz.
COMPRA, PERO PARA AYER!!!!!!! ::
COMPRA, PERO PARA AYER!!!!!!! :
:Durmiente
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Al ritmo que van cayendo los americanos parece que el SP está asegurándose una visita al 1840 más o menos.
Podría ser mañana mismo... o la próxima semana.
Si bajaran de los 1840 podría prolongarse la caída, sin problemas, hasta el mismo 1800.
De todas formas, a mí me parece que esto es, todavía, un "movimiento rápido"y que el lunes mismo estamos de nuevo escalando las laderas de unas montañas que nos permitirán subir indefinidamente "hasta el infinito y más allá" (naturalmente).
Podría ser mañana mismo... o la próxima semana.
Si bajaran de los 1840 podría prolongarse la caída, sin problemas, hasta el mismo 1800.
De todas formas, a mí me parece que esto es, todavía, un "movimiento rápido"y que el lunes mismo estamos de nuevo escalando las laderas de unas montañas que nos permitirán subir indefinidamente "hasta el infinito y más allá" (naturalmente).
bertok
Será en Octubre
Eso son palabras mayores.
Por debajo del 1840 sólo queda el infierno y fin de ciclo intermedio.
atman
Madmaxista
Yo no m'creo los 1840 de momento. Como mucho un tironcito más, échele 10 puntos, que ya haría saltar algunas posis y luego a buscar nuevo máximo, y haga lo que haga, a seguir tonteando y consumiendo días mientras aparezca algo de defina movimiento... sino, con los ojos puestos en el BCE. ...
sr.anus
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atman todo el año bajista,y ahora a ver si se nos va a perder el movimiento weno....:
:::Yo estoy cabreado con la jugada que han hecho a primera hora en el dax barriendo a todos los que andabamos cortos, me han tirado por menos de 2 puntos, sl a 2 puntos menos del maximo.
atman
Madmaxista
Un diverti-miento... para los amantes de las correlaciones...
Hay que prohibir a este tío que haga más películas...
Y, por Dios!!! acaben con los economistas....!!!
La anomalía del 2002 se debe a que una parte de los fallecidos... eran economistas... ::
---------- Post added 15-may-2014 at 19:28 ----------
¿todo el año bajista? No, señor mío... yo llevo un lustro al menos... 🙁 :XX:
Hay que prohibir a este tío que haga más películas...
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Y, por Dios!!! acaben con los economistas....!!!
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La anomalía del 2002 se debe a que una parte de los fallecidos... eran economistas... :
:---------- Post added 15-may-2014 at 19:28 ----------
atman todo el año bajista,y ahora a ver si se nos va a perder el movimiento weno....:
Yo estoy cabreado con la jugada que han hecho a primera hora en el dax barriendo a todos los que andabamos cortos, me han tirado por menos de 2 puntos, sl a 2 puntos menos del maximo.
¿todo el año bajista? No, señor mío... yo llevo un lustro al menos... 🙁 :XX:
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Guybrush_Threepwood
Madmaxista
2013 Rescate en LA.
[YOUTUBE]nFCJVPd1sN0[/YOUTUBE]
[YOUTUBE]nFCJVPd1sN0[/YOUTUBE]
Elpaisdelasmaravillas
Madmaxista
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E.on se ha pegado también su particular gap a la baja
egarenc
Madmaxista
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FER, no estabas ya dentro? añades más?
bertok
Será en Octubre
Looming factor te voy a dar yo a ti.... como saquen un reactor que chupe el C02, azufres y tal de forma eficiente te vas a enterar el chupinatz.
COMPRA, PERO PARA AYER!!!!!!! :
Looming guanocalipsis ..... estás avisao :
:::::Pepitoria
Madmaxista
Vamos Rafa!!!
bertok
Será en Octubre
Maese, trace la línea roja que no debe pasar el SP :
:::::
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Tono
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Salí hace unos días en 16€, cuando el IBEX subió casi un 2%, para recoger plusvis.
Precisamente esperando corrección, para volver a entrar.
Ya que estamos en un movimiento de dientes de sierra, intentar aprovecharlo 😉
Es un valor del que no dudo de su pogre alcista. No hay pega que ponerle por fundamentales ni por AT.
egarenc
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:Aplauso: tu si que sabes, yo sigo dentro, Montoro yo sigo con la latencia, pero tu te joroba 😎:
bertok
Será en Octubre
Cuidado con el Nasdaq 8:8:8:
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Elpaisdelasmaravillas
Madmaxista
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Troleada del dia JCP 15.21%,
ane agurain
Madmaxista
será por fin esta la tan cacareada corrección?
otro día como hoy hace pirarse a muchos
otro día como hoy hace pirarse a muchos