mpbk
Baneado
- Desde
- 30 Ene 2013
- Mensajes
- 16.798
- Fruta
- 9.205
Llega el momento de ganar pasta: sabéis de lo que hablo
- Autor del tema Janus
- Fecha de inicio
- Estado
Con Janus al timón, os vais a hundir
adek
Madmaxista
- Desde
- 5 Mar 2011
- Mensajes
- 9
- Fruta
- 7
corto y pego:
Equity Watch
Value, utilities, large-cap, mega-cap
Profile| Send Message| Trinc (322)
Alpha Natural Resources - Holding Is Best Option As Near-Term Met Coal Market Outlook Remains Dodgy
Feb. 20, 2014 3:43 AM ET | 2 comments | About: ANR
Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. (More...)
Alpha Natural Resources (ANR) has exposure to both thermal and met coal markets, and is likely to benefit from a recovery in both markets in the long term. The company's mines are located near ports, which also allow it to benefit from strengthening in global market trends. I reiterate my 'hold' rating on the stock, as the near term met coal market outlook remains challenging. However, thermal coal markets are showing signs of a recovery, due to a rise in natural gas prices, lower coal inventories and higher coal-fired electricity generation.
Financial Performance
The company reported better than expected financial results for 4Q2013. ANR registered a loss per share of $0.52 for 4Q2013, beating consensus estimates of loss per share of $0.61, down from a loss of $0.19 per share in the corresponding period last year. The company reported annual revenues of $1.09 billion for the recent fourth quarter, down from $1.56 billion in 4Q2012. As the coal industry has been going through a rough patch, companies are targeting cost control measures to support its bottom line results. Cost control efforts were among the primary reasons for ANR's recent quarter earnings beat. In the fourth quarter, ANR lowered its Eastern coal adjusted cost of sales by $7/ton to $67/ton. Also, the company was able to lower its selling, general and administration (SG&A) expenses by 24% year-on-year to $159 million in 2013. Moreover, the company lowered its operating and support expenses by $150 million in 2013. However, revenues for the company were adversely affected by lower tons sold and soft coal prices. In 2013, ANR observed an 11% and a 20% drop in average realized price per ton and coal tons sold, respectively.
The company expects SG&A to be in a range of $110-$140 million in 2014, as compared to $159 million in 2013. Also, the company lowered its depreciation and amortization expense by $50 million to $650-$750 million and is aiming to lower eastern coal costs by 7% in 2014. To further support its bottom line results in the tough market conditions, the company is likely to drive additional $200 million in operating and support cost savings under the restructuring program, which I believe will portend well for the stock price in the near term.
Guidance
ANR expects total coal shipments to be in a range of 77-90 million tons, as compared to actual shipments of 87 million tons in 2013, down from the prior guidance range of 79-90 million tons. As the met coal markets remain oversupplied and prices remain weak, the company lowered its met coal sales guidance from 18-20 million tons to 16-18 million tons. Consistent with ANR's initiative to curtail met coal production, I believe other met coal producers, like Walter Energy (WLT) and Arch Coal (ACI), should opt for production cuts to balance the met coal market, which will result in a price recovery.
ANR maintained its midpoint sales volume guidance for Western steam coal of 38.5 million tons. However, the company raised Eastern steam coal guidance by 1 million tons to 27 million tons in 2014. ANR is hedged 98% and 76% for eastern steam coal and PRB, respectively, for 2014, which provides revenue certainty for the segments. However, the company is only 58% contracted for met coal for 2014, which I believe provides a downside to the stock price as the met coal markets remain weak.
Liquidity
ANR has been making efforts to preserve cash to pass through difficult industry conditions. The company ended 4Q2013 with total liquidity of $1.9 billion, down from $2 billion in 3Q2013. Total liquidity includes $1 billion of cash equivalent and securities. The company does not have any debt covenants until 2015. Also, the company did well to extend debt maturities and has no debt maturity until 2018. As the coal market conditions remain tough, the company is likely to burn cash in a range of 0%-12% of liquidity.
Also, the company lowered its capital expenditure outlook by $50 million to $250-$300 million for 2014. The reduction in capital expenditure is consistent with its cash preservation efforts.
Conclusion
ANR is among the leading coal producers of the U.S. The company has exposure to both met and thermal coal markets. The stock price remains dependent on a recovery of met coal prices and an improvement of European economic conditions. Also, an increase in coal-fired generation will benefit the company's thermal coal operations. Coal-fired electricity generation is expected to increase by 1.3% year-on-year to 40.3% in 2014. The company is managing well to improve its costs structure and improve liquidity. However, due to weak met coal market conditions, as met coal markets remain oversupplied, I reiterate my hold rating on the stock.
Equity Watch
Value, utilities, large-cap, mega-cap
Profile| Send Message| Trinc (322)
Alpha Natural Resources - Holding Is Best Option As Near-Term Met Coal Market Outlook Remains Dodgy
Feb. 20, 2014 3:43 AM ET | 2 comments | About: ANR
Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. (More...)
Alpha Natural Resources (ANR) has exposure to both thermal and met coal markets, and is likely to benefit from a recovery in both markets in the long term. The company's mines are located near ports, which also allow it to benefit from strengthening in global market trends. I reiterate my 'hold' rating on the stock, as the near term met coal market outlook remains challenging. However, thermal coal markets are showing signs of a recovery, due to a rise in natural gas prices, lower coal inventories and higher coal-fired electricity generation.
Financial Performance
The company reported better than expected financial results for 4Q2013. ANR registered a loss per share of $0.52 for 4Q2013, beating consensus estimates of loss per share of $0.61, down from a loss of $0.19 per share in the corresponding period last year. The company reported annual revenues of $1.09 billion for the recent fourth quarter, down from $1.56 billion in 4Q2012. As the coal industry has been going through a rough patch, companies are targeting cost control measures to support its bottom line results. Cost control efforts were among the primary reasons for ANR's recent quarter earnings beat. In the fourth quarter, ANR lowered its Eastern coal adjusted cost of sales by $7/ton to $67/ton. Also, the company was able to lower its selling, general and administration (SG&A) expenses by 24% year-on-year to $159 million in 2013. Moreover, the company lowered its operating and support expenses by $150 million in 2013. However, revenues for the company were adversely affected by lower tons sold and soft coal prices. In 2013, ANR observed an 11% and a 20% drop in average realized price per ton and coal tons sold, respectively.
The company expects SG&A to be in a range of $110-$140 million in 2014, as compared to $159 million in 2013. Also, the company lowered its depreciation and amortization expense by $50 million to $650-$750 million and is aiming to lower eastern coal costs by 7% in 2014. To further support its bottom line results in the tough market conditions, the company is likely to drive additional $200 million in operating and support cost savings under the restructuring program, which I believe will portend well for the stock price in the near term.
Guidance
ANR expects total coal shipments to be in a range of 77-90 million tons, as compared to actual shipments of 87 million tons in 2013, down from the prior guidance range of 79-90 million tons. As the met coal markets remain oversupplied and prices remain weak, the company lowered its met coal sales guidance from 18-20 million tons to 16-18 million tons. Consistent with ANR's initiative to curtail met coal production, I believe other met coal producers, like Walter Energy (WLT) and Arch Coal (ACI), should opt for production cuts to balance the met coal market, which will result in a price recovery.
ANR maintained its midpoint sales volume guidance for Western steam coal of 38.5 million tons. However, the company raised Eastern steam coal guidance by 1 million tons to 27 million tons in 2014. ANR is hedged 98% and 76% for eastern steam coal and PRB, respectively, for 2014, which provides revenue certainty for the segments. However, the company is only 58% contracted for met coal for 2014, which I believe provides a downside to the stock price as the met coal markets remain weak.
Liquidity
ANR has been making efforts to preserve cash to pass through difficult industry conditions. The company ended 4Q2013 with total liquidity of $1.9 billion, down from $2 billion in 3Q2013. Total liquidity includes $1 billion of cash equivalent and securities. The company does not have any debt covenants until 2015. Also, the company did well to extend debt maturities and has no debt maturity until 2018. As the coal market conditions remain tough, the company is likely to burn cash in a range of 0%-12% of liquidity.
Also, the company lowered its capital expenditure outlook by $50 million to $250-$300 million for 2014. The reduction in capital expenditure is consistent with its cash preservation efforts.
Conclusion
ANR is among the leading coal producers of the U.S. The company has exposure to both met and thermal coal markets. The stock price remains dependent on a recovery of met coal prices and an improvement of European economic conditions. Also, an increase in coal-fired generation will benefit the company's thermal coal operations. Coal-fired electricity generation is expected to increase by 1.3% year-on-year to 40.3% in 2014. The company is managing well to improve its costs structure and improve liquidity. However, due to weak met coal market conditions, as met coal markets remain oversupplied, I reiterate my hold rating on the stock.
:¿Has invertido 11000$ simplemente porque lo dice un tipo en interné al que no conoces ni sabes nada sobre él? ¿Sin ningún tipo de catalizador ni justificación alguna?
Para eso vete al casino hombre :XX:
Roninn
Madmaxista
- Desde
- 21 Feb 2011
- Mensajes
- 1.528
- Fruta
- 3.045
You must be registered for see images
---------- Post added 28-feb-2014 at 16:17 ----------
Tu tampoco vayas sobrado porque eres el primero que vas por ahí recomendando inversiones y no eres nadie... 😛inocho:
¿Yo recomendar acciones? Desde Nokia no he recomendado nada, a veces suelto algunos de mis trades pero no te hagas ilusiones porque yo no doy información gratis y menos a ralea como tu, para eso tendrías que pagarme
Lo que hago es restregaros por la cara mis aciertos, suelo advertir a la gente de las caídas, como hice con el oro, con Apple, con el bitcoin, con ANR de Janus hace unos meses, pero como no me hacen NPC, pues pierden pasta. :rolleye:
En internet no soy nadie, pero en la vida real soy el puro amo.
Janus
Será en Octubre
- Desde
- 18 Ago 2011
- Mensajes
- 44.582
- Fruta
- 73.265
le ruego que abandone este hilo a la vista de que no sabe mantener la compostura ni respetar a los demás.
Janus
Será en Octubre
- Desde
- 18 Ago 2011
- Mensajes
- 44.582
- Fruta
- 73.265
black coal.
¿Ya no me dejas etiquetas insultantes?
Felicidades, has madurado 😀
Venga te dejo el hilo para tus gambles
bertok
Será en Octubre
Carbón usano, el ganador será Peabody. Cartera variada:
- BTU: 50%
- ACI: 35%
- ANR: 15%
La subida de ayer de ANR no deja de ser un gatillazo sin volumen. En cambio ACI tiene muy buena pinta, superó la DTB de largo plazo y está formando suelo. El nivel de los 4,8$ es la señal.
Suerte pero prudencia todavía
- BTU: 50%
- ACI: 35%
- ANR: 15%
La subida de ayer de ANR no deja de ser un gatillazo sin volumen. En cambio ACI tiene muy buena pinta, superó la DTB de largo plazo y está formando suelo. El nivel de los 4,8$ es la señal.
Suerte pero prudencia todavía
currito
Madmaxista
Tengo capital, acepto sugerencias 😀
Invierte en un fondo de inversión (más bien en varios), con casi total seguridad lo hará mejor que un particular sin formación financiera.
Janus
Será en Octubre
- Desde
- 18 Ago 2011
- Mensajes
- 44.582
- Fruta
- 73.265
Yo no utilizo etiquetas porque lo que tenga que decir lo digo y punto. Hay un track record suficiente como para demostrarlo.
Es más, no me sorprendería que fueras tú quien escribiera etiquetas ofensivas contra ti mismo en ese afán tacaño de notoriedad que persigues.
Es tu vida y tu problema. Que te vaya como te mereces ............. pero no te preocupes porque siempre tendrás un foro donde escupir tu veneno y la sarta de fracasos que quieres borrar de tu track.
...
Madmaxista
- Desde
- 7 Sep 2013
- Mensajes
- 1.101
- Fruta
- 948
¿Para el que trabaja usted, por ejemplo?
Yo también le pido que sea respetuoso o ignore el hilo, en este foro las niñerías y los trolls están de más.
- Estado