luckybastardo
Madmaxista
un up para este que es el hilo del dia, a los que entran solo de noche y les aparace por la pagina 7 o mas...
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Hi LA, I can't help really clear up your mystery, we will just have to wait and see. But what the whole debate does reveal is just how little idea everyone has of what "internal devaluation" might look like in the modern world.
This is astonishing since the process will be the key to the future and survival of the entire eurozone. Of course, people had fooled themselves with a simple and simplistic idea of "convergence theory", but still.
The techniques really are very primitive. I'm sure they are attempting to drive down salaries in the public sector, but if the proportions are as high as you suggest, then they will simply drive educated people out of the country, and will not at all augment the supply of potential factory workers, which is how the thing should work.... Read More
The idea is to get the general price level down by reducing wages in the public sector, and letting unemployment push them down in the private sector.
Edward, really scary to think that not well understood how to perform a internal devaluation. It sounds like there's little chance of success in Spain.
Juan Carlos, the road ahead in Spain is evidently difficult, but I never give up on a battle before it even gets started. This is one we have to win, hard as it will be, for everyone's sake, and that of our children, and our children's children. Remember, the losses being incurred in Spain are effectively pensioners for Germans from 2015 to 2020. No one will escape unscathed here.
Edward, I honestly do not see in Spain the unions willingly cooperate in the process of internal devaluation.
The operation of the market in Spain is very flawed, with many oligopolies and captive markets, and very little commercial culture.
The aggregate supply is very inelastic in Spain, with very low slope. If a certain elasticity of aggregate supply can not see that to succeed a process of internal devaluation.
I can't say that you are totally wrong Juan Carlos, but I can see the consequences of you being right - Spain will be the next Lehman Brothers, and will plunge the whole global financial system into chaos again. Spain is the trigger than can ignite round two, if the National Bank of China doesn't get there first that is.
Eso de que España puede ser el nuevo Lehman Brothers me deja mucho más tranquilo.
"¿España? Toros, paella, vino, turismo. ¡Ah, y un enorme crash!", se ríe un empresario estadounidense en el Foro Económico de Davos. "España es un hedge fund, un fondo de alto riesgo inmobiliario", añade, metiendo el dedo en la llaga. No hay nadie para replicar esa imagen que se repite en el enclave suizo. La economía española no está en Davos. La política tampoco. Peor aún: ni un solo miembro del Gobierno se ha acercado. (...)
I'm sure they are attempting to drive down salaries in the public sector, but if the proportions are as high as you suggest, then they will simply drive educated people out of the country
La devaluación interna no va a funcionar: el sector industrial, que es el que más debería bajar los salarios, es el más sindicalizado. El ajuste se produce en cantidades, no en precios: jibarización del sector industrial, pérdida continua de capacidad en el (sobredimensionado) sector servicios, déficits públicos crecientes etc etc.
Sobre que el BCE deje de enviarnos los minoyes cada vez que el diferencial se amplía (minoyes que son usados por los bancos para comprar deuda pública), tengo mis dudas. A
l fin y al cabo, el BCE también es nuestro banco, y está por ver un país en el que el banco central no apoye al gobierno de turno, por simple que este se vuelva.
Con salarios y precios con resistencias brutales a la baja, lo que se producirá a continuación será una espiral de debt deflation que en un plazo máximo de 1 año sumirá en la ruina más absoluta nuestra economía y nos expulsará del euro.
[mode ironic on]
Le he dicho a mi psiquiatra que entre en burbuja.info para informarse sobre lo que se avecina, aunque me arrepiento de haberlo hecho, porque ahora tendré que contratar a un psiquiatra para mi psiquiatra.
[mode ironic off]
La sintaxis de las frases en inglés difiere bastante de la sintaxis del castellano. Si alguien tiene alguna duda, esta libre de mandarme un mp y ayudaré donde puedo.
Sure you're f***ing great writing in English, pero con el uso del subjuntivo te atascas
Bueno.
Esto no interesa a nadie...