Just some observations as a contribution to the discussions of the severity of el bichito-19.
In WHO publications you find statements that the average time until an outcome of the illness was deadly is approximately eighteen and a half days.
In These documents you also find a first estimation about how many cases will have a deadly outcome. The figures from different publications vary around 4,5%.
For the next overview I personally only added one assumption: It takes seven and a half days to report a case.
Displayed are the cases by date from source (
https://www.worldometers.in...)
in column one and two.
Third column displays 4,5% of these cases.
Fourth column tells the date with the delay of 11 days
(=18,5d until average deadly outcome – 7,5d delay until reported case).
Fifth column displays documented deadly outcomes for the delayed date. (same source from worldometers)
Make your own impression how it will continue in Germany as figures for future are
missing:
Date | Cases | 4,50% | -> 11 days delay | Dead |
04.03.2020 | 262 | 12 | 15.03.2020 | 13 |
05.03.2020 | 545 | 25 | 16.03.2020 | 17 |
06.03.2020 | 670 | 30 | 17.03.2020 | 26 |
07.03.2020 | 800 | 36 | 18.03.2020 | 28 |
08.03.2020 | 1040 | 47 | 19.03.2020 | 44 |
09.03.2020 | 1224 | 55 | 20.03.2020 | 68 |
10.03.2020 | 1565 | 70 | 21.03.2020 | 84 |
11.03.2020 | 1966 | 88 | 22.03.2020 | 94 |
12.03.2020 | 2745 | 124 | 23.03.2020 | 123 |
13.03.2020 | 3675 | 165 | 24.03.2020 | 159 |
14.03.2020 | 4599 | 207 | 25.03.2020 | 206 |
15.03.2020 | 5813 | 262 | 26.03.2020 | 267 |
16.03.2020 | 7272 | 327 | 27.03.2020 | |
17.03.2020 | 9367 | 422 | 28.03.2020 | |
18.03.2020 | 12327 | 555 | 29.03.2020 | |
19.03.2020 | 15320 | 689 | 30.03.2020 | |
20.03.2020 | 19848 | 893 | 31.03.2020 | |
21.03.2020 | 22364 | 1006 | 01.04.2020 | |
So I would conclude: an outcome of each reported case is deadly by 4,5% in Germany eleven days after published. The figures correlate by 99%..