La reburbuja del Reino Unido

House prices move higher in March

House prices are continuing to rise strongly

UK house prices are still rising at a strong pace despite recent interest rate rises, according to the country's biggest mortgage lender, the Halifax.
The bank reported that prices rose by 1% in March, taking the annual rate of house price inflation to about 11%. According to the Halifax, the average house price is now £194,362. A strong economy and a shortage of houses for sale was behind the rise, the bank said, although it added that price growth may ease later this year.

The Halifax noted "emerging signs" that pressure on householders' finances - partly as a result of three interest rate rises since last summer - was beginning to have a dampening effect on the market. "We expect the recent rises in interest rates, negative real earnings growth and above inflation council tax bills to lead to slower house price growth over the coming months," said Tim Crawford, Halifax group economist. Last week, the Nationwide noted a similar cooling in the housing market.

Regional breakdown

House prices increased in all parts of the UK during the first three months of 2007. The biggest rises in the quarter were in Scotland, where prices climbed by 5.4%, and Wales, where values rose 4.9%. At the other end of the scale, prices in East Midlands and Yorkshire moved upwards by only 0.2% and 0.6% respectively during the three-month period.

The Halifax figures also showed that the average price of a house in Northern Ireland has broken through the £200,000 barrier for the first time. This means that Northern Ireland is now one of the most expensive parts of the UK to buy property. This is quite a turnaround - two years ago Northern Ireland was the second cheapest part of the UK to buy a home. A strong local economy, immigration and demand created by second home buyers has led to an unprecedented boom in house prices. House prices in Northern Ireland have risen by 76% since the start of 2005, far outstripping growth in the rest of the UK.

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el ganso dijo:

Del Telegraph (tradicionalista inglés):
No se puede seguir con un aumento de liquidez monetario del 12%.... Los intereses tendrán que subir hasta el 7,5% :
La escuela monetarista (el aumento de la cantidad de dinero en circulación conlleva un aumento de inflación) ya no es favorecida en el Reino Unido pero si en europa... Las casas en Londres siguen subiendo al 15%

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2007/04/24/cninflation24.xml

Y con respeto a España:
-El deficit de importaciones al 9.5% de Producto Interior Bruto: sobrecalentamiento... el segundo en el mundo después de los EEUU sorprendente para un pais de solo 40millones ... años después de Franco!
Se contruyeron más de 800.000 viviendas más que Francia. Alemani e Italia dejando un exceso de oferta... El precio ha subido más del 270% en la última decada hasta un medio de 276.000€ : la deuda doméstica ha subido del 75% en 1995 hasta el 133% de los ingresos diaponibles

"Manuel Romera, director of Madrid's Instituto de la Empresa, said: "I can see a mortgage crisis building. We have a serious property bubble in this country and everyone is in denial; it's worse than the US."
crisis de burbuja y todo el mundo lo niega es peor que los EEUU
[Re/Max International bajo 25% en ...]
Miguel Fernandez Ordonez, the Bank of Spain's governor, blamed the bubble on the wrong interest rates caused by euro membership.
Acusa a Europa de los cambios de intereses. Y que ahora hay un cambio de ser demasiado libre con la concesión de créditos a ser demasiado restrictivos, encima que en Alemania las hipotecas son mayormente de tipo fijo

Según Bernard Connolly, de Banque AIG antiguo jefe de la unidad de investigación economica de EU , dice que el pais sufrira un ajusta brutal si es que pueda quedarse en la zona Euro (ALUCINANTE).
Dice que España va a sufrir de las peores circustancias económicas: recesión. deflación e impagos en el sector privado: una depresión en toda regla... lo de la bolsa no es un reajuste .... hay mucho por venir.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2007/04/25/cnspain25.xml

O sea que tropiezo será un poquito más fuerte que lo del 1990-92
Siento ver como son más realistas o avisadores (para los tiburones) en otros entornos.

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