XRP tops $1.90 and breaks into the crypto top five

XRP breaks the dollar and enters the crypto top five

Four times its price in a matter of weeks. XRP, the cryptocurrency tied to Ripple, went from crawling along at $0.45 to touching $1.92, and from there to rubbing shoulders with the five largest players in the sector by market cap, with Tether in its sights. The rally is not built on bar-room gossip: Ripple announced the purchase of 40% of Tranglo, a specialist in cross-border payments, and in the thread the presence of Bank of America among its clients is taken as a given. The awkward detail is that the SEC lawsuit is still open. Nobody here has buried it.

From $0.45 to $1.92: what pushed the price up

The first boost came with the big names. Ripple has spent years adding clients to its payments network —MoneyGram, SBI in Japan, XRapid— and the Bank of America inclusion that participants take as a given gave ammunition to the optimists. On top of that came its entry into the remittances business with the purchase of 40% of Tranglo. The underlying argument: if XRP is the piece banks use to move money between countries, its value should reflect that role rather than market noise. DTCC, R3 and Bakkt are also cited as pieces of the same institutional puzzle.

The second catalyst has a date: December 12, when the Flare fork would arrive, distributing its Spark token —issued on Ethereum— among XRP holders. For many, that is a reason not to let go. The price responded: first $1.27777 on Binance, then $1.63 and finally the assault on $1.92.

How far is XRP from its all-time high?

It depends on who you ask. The data from Coinpaprika make for a revealing contest: to recover its all-time high, Bitcoin needs to rise 9.26%; Ethereum, 138%; and XRP, 576%. Read bullishly, that is ample room to run. Read bearishly, it is the bill for all the ground it lost against its rivals. The direct comparison between the three assets is what frames the debate.

• BTC: 9.26% to its previous high
• ETH: 138%
• XRP: 576%

The fine calculation of where each percentage comes from is left to anyone who wants to reconstruct it, but the conclusion is plain to see: XRP is the furthest from its ceiling and therefore the one with the most room to run if the market decides to look kindly on it.

The SEC wall still stands

No serious analysis can ignore it. The lawsuit by the US regulator against Ripple remains unresolved and hangs over the price like a slab of stone. There is speculation that it could be dismissed soon, but that is exactly what it is: speculation. Some argue the case puts XRP on the same regulatory footing as BTC or ETH ahead of an eventual clarification. Others counter that as long as the lawsuit is alive, any rise is a house of cards. The price, for now, is turning a deaf ear.

The dissenting voices: overvalued and hostage to Bitcoin

Not everyone is celebrating. One participant argues that XRP is "overvalued" and that if Bitcoin turns around, it will shed 50% without breaking a sweat. The technical argument is repeated: volume is minimal and, without buying pressure, any bounce fizzles out; the same participant adds that "everything that rises that fast falls just as fast." Others recall that the last big run to $19,100 in the previous cycle ended in free fall and that the full FOMO lasted weeks.

Some simply do not want to be in when this deflates, while others have sized their position so that a 2x is "enjoyable" and a crash back to $0.45 would not ruin their month. Two ways of looking at the same chart.

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How much party is left before someone turns off the music? The SEC does not answer that. And neither, for now, does the chart.