World Cup mirage: the economic risks if Spain wins

The World Cup mirage: what could happen to the economy if Spain wins?

Spain is in the World Cup final. Sporting euphoria floods the streets, politicians fight to get in the photo and the propaganda machine is warming up. But in the economic analyses — the ones that don't make it onto TV — a shadow looms: the experience of 2010, when the World Cup party gave way to a crisis that swept away jobs, savings and confidence. Are we about to repeat the pattern?

The shadow of 2010: when the euphoria faded

The central argument of those who view sporting success with suspicion is recent history. After the 2010 World Cup in South Africa, Spain didn't just celebrate the triumph: the then government — also socialist — multiplied the photo ops at the Moncloa palace, the receptions and the narrative of greatness. The crisis, however, was already brewing. The years 2011, 2012 and 2013 brought the worst phase of the recession: unemployment above 25%, a banking bailout, and austerity cuts whose effects still linger. The hypothesis circulating among independent analysts is that a new World Cup triumph could act as a smokescreen for structural problems that remain unsolved.

Inflation, debt and the headlong rush forward

Hard data is scarce amid the general euphoria, but there is a current warning about "brutal inflation" — an expression that captures the mood — and the possibility that the sporting triumph will be used to justify a policy of disguised fiscal profligacy. While the national team plays on, the price of the shopping basket keeps rising, the average mortgage offers no relief and youth unemployment remains entrenched. The public broadcaster devoting hour after hour to the national team is no accident: once the match is over, reality will be exactly as it was.

Politics and the electoral factor: a snap election?

The other front of debate is political instrumentalization. There is speculation that the Prime Minister — "Antonio", as he is called in everyday street language — would take advantage of the wave of popularity to call early elections. The move recalls 2010: victory dressed in red, the flags, the embrace of power. But citizens, burned by previous crises, might react with skepticism. "Well, at least the far right isn't in government and we've won another World Cup," is a phrase that sums up the resigned complacency the harshest critics antiestéticar.

There is no clear answer. The only certainty is that in a few days we will know whether the trophy comes home. What happens next will depend on whether we learn anything from last time.