Whoever designed this crappy unreality forgot that people talk about luck
How much does luck shape our lives? Data and reflections on chance, merit and the three lotteries that determine our destiny.
English · Original discussion in Spanish · Published
The taboo of luck: from geographic chance to the genetic lottery
Being born in India was an 18% statistical probability, as was pointed out in a recent discussion. But it's not just geography: the genetic lottery and social class are the other two variables that determine a person's opportunities more than any individual effort. The debate about luck, however, remains an uncomfortable taboo in a society that prefers the merit narrative.
The three lotteries that shape your destiny
The combination of birthplace, genetic capital and socioeconomic environment is, for many, 99% of the success equation. One cited case: a kid in the Gaza Strip, short and of average intelligence, the son of vegetable stall owners, has very few options no matter how hard he tries. In contrast, a Londoner who is 1.90 metres tall, with a high IQ and well-off parents, has almost everything handed to him. The probability of being in the fortunate situation is ridiculously low, yet those who enjoy it tend to attribute it to merit.
Merit as an alibi
The reluctance to talk about luck has an explanation: the system is designed so that certain profiles experience more "coincidences". Those who inherit, those with connections or who are born in the right neighbourhood call "luck" what is in fact a red-carpeted path. Against this, there is a school of thought arguing that luck does not exist as an external force, but is rather the intersection of preparation and opportunity. But even this view runs into an uncomfortable fact: preparation also depends on the genetic and educational lottery.
Why does nobody want to talk about luck?
The anecdote of the person who matched five out of six numbers in the Spanish national lottery and won 1,800 euros, first considering it bad luck and then a relief, illustrates the subjectivity of the concept. So does the testimony of someone who survived a cancer with an adverse prognosis, attributed to the chance of the healthcare system. But the biggest mystery is why debate forums avoid the topic. Perhaps because admitting that luck determines almost everything dismantles the foundation of the social narrative based on individual effort. As someone said: "Luck is the label we put on the variance not explained by merit." And accepting that forces us to rethink the rules of the game.
Deep down, the question remains open: if geographic, genetic and class chance weighs more than any conscious decision, what is the point of the merit discourse? Perhaps the discomfort of the debate stems from the fact that the answer is simply too uncomfortable to accept.
Related discussions on the forum
Being born in India was an 18% statistical probability, as was pointed out in a recent discussion. But it's not just geography: the genetic lottery and social class are the other two variables that determine a person's opportunities more than any individual effort. The debate about luck, however, remains an uncomfortable taboo in a society that prefers the merit narrative.
The three lotteries that shape your destiny
The combination of birthplace, genetic capital and socioeconomic environment is, for many, 99% of the success equation. One cited case: a kid in the Gaza Strip, short and of average intelligence, the son of vegetable stall owners, has very few options no matter how hard he tries. In contrast, a Londoner who is 1.90 metres tall, with a high IQ and well-off parents, has almost everything handed to him. The probability of being in the fortunate situation is ridiculously low, yet those who enjoy it tend to attribute it to merit.
Merit as an alibi
The reluctance to talk about luck has an explanation: the system is designed so that certain profiles experience more "coincidences". Those who inherit, those with connections or who are born in the right neighbourhood call "luck" what is in fact a red-carpeted path. Against this, there is a school of thought arguing that luck does not exist as an external force, but is rather the intersection of preparation and opportunity. But even this view runs into an uncomfortable fact: preparation also depends on the genetic and educational lottery.
Why does nobody want to talk about luck?
The anecdote of the person who matched five out of six numbers in the Spanish national lottery and won 1,800 euros, first considering it bad luck and then a relief, illustrates the subjectivity of the concept. So does the testimony of someone who survived a cancer with an adverse prognosis, attributed to the chance of the healthcare system. But the biggest mystery is why debate forums avoid the topic. Perhaps because admitting that luck determines almost everything dismantles the foundation of the social narrative based on individual effort. As someone said: "Luck is the label we put on the variance not explained by merit." And accepting that forces us to rethink the rules of the game.
Deep down, the question remains open: if geographic, genetic and class chance weighs more than any conscious decision, what is the point of the merit discourse? Perhaps the discomfort of the debate stems from the fact that the answer is simply too uncomfortable to accept.
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Summary of a discussion on Burbuja.info - Foro de economía, actualidad y política., translated from Spanish and reviewed before publication. Read the full discussion (37 replies).
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