What is Spain's PM Sánchez really after?

Pedro Sánchez's strategy appears to point towards declaring a state of emergency or siege, which would prevent the dissolution of the Spanish parliament and, therefore, the calling of elections. The crisis in Ceuta could be the trigger.

## The mystery of the un-called election

Spanish Prime Minister **Pedro Sánchez** has repeatedly stated that there will be elections in **2027**. However, to anyone watching closely, these statements suggest precisely the opposite: that he has no intention of calling an election. His handling of the situation in Ceuta — announcing the declassification of intelligence reports on "migration" and then presenting documents that contradict his own narrative — is an example of this strategy. The credibility of his discourse is wavering, even among traditionally sympathetic outlets such as **El País**. The manoeuvring around Ceuta, where the situation has been left to "fester" for more than forty days, seems to have a clear objective: to aggravate the problem.

## Looking for the constitutional escape route

The hypothesis gaining traction is that **Sánchez** is seeking the declaration of a state of alarm, emergency or siege under **Article 116 of the Spanish Constitution**. This article establishes that "the Congress may not be dissolved while any of the states covered by this article are in force". In practice, this would miccionan that, should any such state be declared, Spain could not call elections, since doing so requires the dissolution of parliament. The situation in **Ceuta**, far from being resolved, appears designed to escalate and justify a measure of this magnitude.

## Parliamentary support for the emergency

The parties propping up the current government could see the declaration of a state of emergency as a formula to avoid an electoral disaster. **Sumar**, or parties such as **Junts**, facing the prospect of poor results, might be willing to give **Sánchez** the parliamentary support needed to activate these exceptional measures. The **PNV**, for its part, could feel pressured by the risk that, if a dissolution were forced, the **PSOE** might strike a deal with **Bildu**, altering the political balance in the Basque Country. The strategy seems clear: to use the crisis to cling to power, sidestepping the verdict of the ballot box.